Michigan’s population has stagnated. So have efforts to reverse that trend.

Michigan Capitol | Susan J. Demas graphic

Maybe Michigan really doesn’t want to grow its population.

It’s been nearly eight months since the Growing Michigan Together Council, commissioned by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, issued a comprehensive report on ways to make Michigan a faster-growing, more prosperous state.

But some say they’re disappointed with the lack of urgency in dealing with the state’s most challenging economic issue.

One would think the Whitmer administration would have adopted the attitude of “let’s strike while the iron is hot,” after the growth council submitted its report, said Eric Lupher, president of the nonpartisan Citizens Research Council of Michigan.

“I didn’t see any of that. Bits and pieces that came out of the report seem to have momentum,” Lupher told me. “But they’re not moving fast enough, for sure.”

New state office will focus on growing Michigan’s population

Whitmer disbanded the growth council earlier this month, saying its work was complete. Following that move, The Michigan Economic Development Corp. created the Michigan Growth Office, reportedly using four existing MEDC staffers. The office is headed by Chief Growth Officer Hilary Doe.

In a news release, the MEDC pointed to a few significant state budget appropriations for fiscal 2025 to promote growth. They include $60 million to aid startup companies, $30 million for college scholarships, $100 million for affordable housing and $75 million to boost public transit.

When the Growing Michigan Together Council issued its report last December, Democratic Co-Chair Shirley Stancato called Michigan’s stagnant population “an unfolding crisis.”

“We’re 49th in terms of population growth and our preK-12 education outcomes are lagging behind faster-growing peer states,” said Stancato, who chairs the Wayne State University Board of Governors. “While the challenges facing our state are not new, it’s critical we take action now.”

That’s not happening, according to growth council Republican Co-Chair John Rakolta. He told the Detroit News in April that the report “sits on a shelf somewhere and it will never see the light of day again.”

Longtime demographer Kurt Metzger said the Whitmer administration should be using the report as a blueprint for growth with established metrics and a timeline for accomplishing goals.

“Any state investments and expenditures should be tied back to the plan,” he told me.

The report focused its dozens of recommendations on how to grow the state’s population on three broad areas: developing a lifelong education system; creating a “transformative economic growth strategy” that will establish Michigan as “the innovation hub of the Midwest;” and building “thriving, resilient communities that are magnets for young talent.”

Those communities will be walkable, transit-oriented and feature other amenities desired by young, recent college graduates.

Bills introduced by a group of Democratic lawmakers are aimed at funding those things but are stalled in the Legislature.

The bills would appropriate $600 million a year to the state’s primary economic development pot, the Strategic Outreach and Attraction Reserve (SOAR) Fund, but allocate $350 million of it to transit, housing and placemaking.

This would be a major shift in state economic development incentives, which have traditionally focused on incentivizing businesses to invest in Michigan.

But the House and Senate failed to pass the bills before lawmakers went on their summer break and prospects for passage when the Legislature resumes session in September are unclear. Whitmer is said to be cool to the idea of cutting SOAR funds used to attract business investment.

“That is a problem,” Lupher said. “Whitmer is not championing a change in economic development policy. How long are we going to be chasing low-paying, blue-collar [factory] jobs” and not undertaking efforts to create high-paying jobs that require a four-year degree?

Lupher acknowledged that significant population growth isn’t going to happen overnight. Michigan’s share of  the U.S. population has been declining for more than 50 years. It will take years to reverse that trend.

But Lupher said this might be the best time for a laser-like focus on population because Whitmer will be a lame duck governor next year.

“Maybe that’s fair” that we haven’t seen a lot of progress on population so far, Lupher said. “But if this is her issue, this year seems like the year to get it done.”

Maybe 10 million is the right number. To me it’s not necessarily growing the population but returning Michigan to a more prosperous state.

– Eric Lupher, president of the nonpartisan Citizens Research Council of Michigan, said of the state's population

Lupher also agreed with my observation that Michigan voters don’t seem to think the state’s stagnant population, hovering for years at around 10 million people, is a big deal.

Affordable housing projects are often scuttled by NIMBYism (Not in My Backyard). And the few places in Michigan that are growing, such as Traverse City, often face backlash to that growth.

“Maybe 10 million is the right number,” he said. “To me it’s not necessarily growing the population but returning Michigan to a more prosperous state.”

The problem, he said, is the age demographic of Michigan’s population.

In 1980, 60% of the state’s residents were under 35. That share is expected to fall to 41% by 2045, according to a study prepared for the growth council, unless the state can find more younger people needed to populate the workforce.

If Michigan is in a population, education and prosperity “crisis,” as Stancato said, then policymakers need to act like it.

There’s a quote often attributed to former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel that’s apropos to Michigan’s challenge, but was actually spoken 20 years ago by Stanford University economist Paul Romer about his fear that the United States was falling behind other countries in educational achievement:

“A crisis,” Romer said, is a terrible thing to waste.”

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