12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions as fall camps are set to kick off

The 12-Team College Football Playoff is officially here! After much deliberation (and delay) earlier this spring the College Football Playoff committee settled on the "5+7" model for the first ever 12-team playoff in college football history.

In case you missed the detailed breakdowns this off-season, that means the five highest ranked conference champions and seven more "at-large" bids as voted on by the college playoff committee earn a spot in the tournament field.

Other key things to know about this new game-changing playoff format:

• The top four seeds receive a first round bye.
• Seeds 5-8 host first round playoff games at home against seeds 9-12.
• The bracket will remain in effect throughout the entirety of the playoff, so there's no re-seeding based on early round outcomes.
• If you'd like the full breakdown on the college football playoff bracket you can find that here straight from the source.

With this new format in mind, it's time to share the A to Z Sports early predictions for the 2024 12-team College Football Playoff, breaking down every game in each round based on a heavily data-driven projection of the season.

First Round

Four Conference Champions on Bye

1. Texas (13-0 SEC Champion)
2. Ohio State (12-1 Big Ten Champion)
3. Florida State (11-2 ACC Champion)
4. Kansas State (11-2 Big 12 Champion)

First Four Matchups

• #12 Liberty (13-0 CUSA Champion) at #5 Georgia
• #11 Penn State at #6 Alabama
• #10 Tennessee at #7 Oregon
• #9 Ole Miss at #8 Notre Dame

First Four Out

• Michigan
• Clemson
• LSU
• Utah

#12 Liberty at #5 Georgia

Georgia defeats Liberty by more than four possessions, easily.

Liberty doesn't play a single power conference team this season and gets to face a rather weak Conference USA schedule all year long. This likely means that just like last year Liberty will be going undefeated in the regular season on their way to a CUSA Conference Championship.

In this scenario, Georgia lost in the SEC Championship game to Texas and will be looking to make a statement as they open with their first true home College Football Playoff game ever in Athens. There's quite seriously all but an absolute zero percent chance that Liberty even keeps this game within a touchdown. The game likely gets completely out of hand by halftime thanks to Georgia's bevy of future NFL Draft picks. Carson Beck on offense paired with Mykel Williams and Malaki Starks on defense proves to be far too much here.

Related: Three Heisman Trophy hopefuls from Georgia, Oregon, and Texas are hogging all the action at sports books

#11 Penn State at #6 Alabama

Alabama exposes Penn State in a round one trouncing.

Penn State would have made the hypothetical 12-Team College Football Playoff several times had it been instated when the 4-team playoff model began back in 2014. Given their rather soft schedule with only one near impossible opponent (Ohio State) to play, Penn State could end up in the Big Ten Championship game or just on the outside looking in if Drew Allar steps up this fall at quarterback.

However, Alabama's depth of talent is still far greater than Penn State, and Jalen Milroe likely proves to be a much more dynamic multi-faceted offensive threat than perhaps anything else Penn State will face all year long. That paired with the Crimson Tide's crushing run game pushes Alabama through to the quarterfinals.

#10 Tennessee at #7 Oregon

Nico Iamaleava and high flying offense have answer for Oregon.

Oregon largely looks very much like their 2023 selves when you look at their roster construction. New quarterback Dillon Gabriel and wide receiver Evan Stewart should do their best Bo Nix and Troy Franklin impressions, but when they have to match punch for punch against another elite offense they lose this one to Tennessee.

Tennessee's absurd pass rush led by future Top 10 NFL Draft pick James Pearce Jr. will be a problem for many playoff teams. When you combine the nasty pass rush on defense with the deepest set of wide receivers that Josh Heupel's offense has had in his time in Tennessee, Nico Iamaleava and the Vols win the day.

#9 Ole Miss at #8 Notre Dame

Jaxson Dart, his elite wide receivers, and their revamped defensive front do just enough to edge out the Fighting Irish.

If Riley Leonard stays healthy for Notre Dame the Fighting Irish should be able to stick with just about any opponent. Running back Jeremiyah Love's explosion and versatility should be a problem on offense too. However, when facing Jaxson Dart's future NFL arm and a defense with elite transfers defensive tackle Walter Nolen, edge rusher Princely Umanmielen, and cornerback Trey Amos the Irish might meet their match. Ole Miss goes all-in this fall and wins their first College Football Playoff game in Notre Dame's house.

Quarterfinals

#1 Texas vs #9 Ole Miss

Texas and their depth of high pedigree studs and key transfers do enough to hold off Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss.

Quinn Ewers is looking for redemption after starting slow in last season's College Football Playoff semifinal game against Washington. He and Isaiah Bond, Amari Niblack, Johntay Cook, and Matthew Golden sync up to create a nightmare of matchup problems for the Ole Miss secondary that is still far from perfect, taking an early lead. Their depth, size, and speed off the edge from Trey Moore hold off any kind of attempt at a comeback.

Related: Three potential Texas Longhorns breakout players for the 2024 college football season

#2 Ohio State vs #7 Tennessee

Ohio State's returning hoard of elite talent shocks Tennessee with their top tier play at every position.

Ohio State's only question all season long could again actually be their quarterback, unless Will Howard suddenly improves as a passer. However, the other 21 starters and phenomenal depth players around him should be more than enough to beat virtually every single team in the nation. Tennessee's defense won't match up well trying to stop Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson in the run game. And if they overcommit to the run Ohio State's unbelievable stable of wide receiver talent led by Emeka Egbuka and true freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith will make them pay over the top.

#3 Florida State vs #6 Alabama

Alabama hands Florida State a huge wake up call as the most talented team the Seminoles will face all year by a wide margin.

DJ Uiagalelei should provide a steady hand at quarterback for Florida State against their entire ACC slate, but when it comes time to defeat an swarm of five star talents on defense he has been known to fall short. Florida State still has solid depth up front and on the edges of their defense, but they don't have the same level of elite playmakers like Trey Benson and Keon Coleman from a year ago. That bites them here in a loss to Alabama.

#4 Kansas State vs #5 Georgia

Every household in the country is impressed by Kansas State Avery Johnson, but it's in a losing effort to Georgia.

Dual threat first year starter Avery Johnson will likely carry Kansas State all year long with his legs and his rocket arm. He seriously has Lamar Jackon kind of upside if he develops as a passer given his indescribable athleticism. However, just like Georgia vs. TCU in the national championship game two years ago, this matchup simply doesn't work out in favor of the purple team on paper or in the trenches. Georgia's stacked linebacker group should have a party in the backfield in this one.

Semifinals

#1 Texas vs #5 Georgia

Georgia wins what is a rematch of the SEC Championship Game.

This could be the potential game of the year here. Two 2025 NFL Draft first round quarterbacks facing off in an epic rematch of the SEC Championship game backed by incredible skill talent and nothing but blue chip players everywhere. This battle will be won through the air as two strong quarterbacks try to make their mark on college football history. And one of them very well could be fresh off a Heisman Trophy win too.

#2 Ohio State vs #6 Alabama

Ohio State proves they are far from "soft" anymore, as their ground game actually proves superior to Alabama's.

Will Howard's dual threat ability, TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins in the backfield, and Chip Kelly's offensive scheme stressing the edges all day wins them the day in a close game. Alabama actually has some relative unknowns on the edge this season after losing Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell to the NFL. That likely gets exposed against the best of the best.

Championship

#2 Ohio State vs #5 Georgia

In a rematch of the semifinal game from two years ago Georgia faces off with Ohio State. This time it's Georgia that misses the potential game-winning field goal at the last second as Ryan Day is vindicated, winning his first national championship with the Ohio State Buckeyes.

First Four Out

In this scenario the "first four out" are Michigan, Clemson, LSU, and Utah.

• Michigan's loss to Ohio State sends them packing as they finish 9-3 to wrap a season where Alex Orji spent too much time figuring out how to find consistent passing success when the Wolverines needed it most.
• Clemson's loss in the ACC Championship game to Florida State will be just enough to keep them out in favor of a two-loss Big Ten team and the fifth best SEC team, sparking some controversy.
• LSU gets hot late, but it's not enough. No one could justify a sixth SEC team getting in the playoff.
• Utah's loss to Kansas State was always going to knock them out of the playoff as the Big 12 is clearly just a one-bid league at this point.

We'll be back with more College Football Playoff coverage here at A to Z Sports all season long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!