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MLB home run props for Tue. 7/30: So long, see ya!
By Jack Dougherty,
1 day ago
Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte (4) celebrates a home run.
We were unable to cash a home run bet on Monday night, but we're loving our chances on Tuesday with hitter-friendly weather all over the country. Let's check out our three favorite HR bets for the loaded slate.
Tuesday night's matchup between the Seattle Mariners and the Boston Red Sox is the perfect target for a home run prop. The wind is projected to blow strongly out to left-center field at Fenway Park, and Red Sox starter James Paxton is vulnerable to home runs due to his 57.5 percent 4-seam fastball rate. That's great news for Robles, who has a .357 xBA, a .777 xSLG and a 54.5 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season.
Another weather game we want to target is going down in Baltimore, as it's going to be hot and humid with a strong wind blowing out to left-center field at Camden Yards. Toronto Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt is normally effective at limiting home runs, but he's given up three homers in his last two starts. Westburg leads the Baltimore Orioles in hard-hit rate since the All-Star break (55.9 percent), and most of his homers fly out to left-center field.
We often wonder why Marte doesn't bat right-handed full-time. The switch hitter is batting .356 and slugging .698 from the right side this season, and 14 of his 24 home runs have come against lefties. Marte especially loves going up against Washinton Nationals starter Patrick Corbin, as he's 5-12 (.417) with two homers and a double against the veteran lefty.
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