Herbert is coming off his second season in a row of disappointing fantasy managers with another lackluster season. Part of this was due to him injuring his finger and missing time, but there were also some games where he didn't have the best passing performance.
Even with these issues, Herbert still finished as a QB1 in 8 of his 13 games played with 5 top 5 finishes, but these came in weeks where Herbert had 35+ passing attempts (except in Week 4, where he had two rushing TDs)
Herbert has had years where he's put up impressive numbers because of the passing volume (595 attempts QB9 & 672 attempts QB2). In each game in the 23-24 season, Herbert had 30 passes or less, but his numbers were pedestrian.
Chargers Changing Course
The Chargers brought in new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who have historically had very run-centric offenses. The Charger's wide receiver room also lacks established talent. Herbert will work with veterans Joshua Palmer and DJ Chark, second-year receiver Quentin Johnston (who had an awful year one), and rookies Ladd McConkey and Brenden Rice.
Between different style coaches and new wide receivers, it would be no surprise that Herbert takes a step back this next season. Herbert definitely has the skill level to produce top 5 QB numbers, but with the challenges he faces, it is doubtful this season. Redraft fantasy owners should definitely show caution when taking him as their QB1, but dynasty players should still view him as a top-tier option for the position in the long term.
If you are lucky, Herbert could end up as your QB2 in Superflex, which is an elite position. If his owner is selling in a Dynasty league, see if you can get him for a cheaper price; this could be his lowest value for quite a while.
Our consensus projections for Herbert in the 2024 season would be: 356 completions, 3959 yards, 29 touchdowns, 7 interceptions through the air, and 70 carries for 318 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns.
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