MLB home run props for 7/31: Big price on a big hit

We're still searching for our first home run prop winner of the week, and we feel good about our chances on this hump day. Here are the three HR bets we're targeting for Wednesday's MLB slate.

Elly De La Cruz (+450 DraftKings )

Cubs at Reds, 7:10 p.m. ET

The most hitter-friendly weather conditions on the Wednesday slate look to be in Cincinnati, as it's going to be hot and humid with the wind projected to blow out to left field at Great American Ball Park. We also have no problem fading Kyle Hendricks, who's been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this year. Let's roll with Elly Da La Cruz, who's batting .324 with a 45.8 percent hard-hit rate since the All-Star break.

Yainer Diaz (+650 DK )

Pirates at Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET

This couldn't be a better setup for Diaz. For starters, the Houston Astros catcher is batting .524 and slugging .952 with two home runs over his last five games. He's hit seven of his 10 homers this season at home, which makes sense considering Minute Maid Park is the fourth-friendliest stadium to long balls this year. As for the matchup, Jake Woodford has surrendered 10 earned runs and two homers in his two starts this season. Woodford's most used pitch is his sinker, and Diaz is batting .369 and slugging .508 against sinkers in 2024.

Zach Neto (+600 FanDuel )

Rockies at Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET

Colorado Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is one of our favorite starters to fade with home run props. Freeland ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel rate (10.2 percent), and he's given up four homers in his last three starts. Neto is batting .421 and slugging .579 against left-handed pitching this season. With the wind projected to blow straight out to center field at Angel Stadium, we like Neto at a big price.