Hopkins had a respectable fantasy season last year, given the circumstances. He posted 75 receptions from 137 targets for 1,057 yards and 7 touchdowns. This gave him a WR22 finish in half-ppr formats. Hopkins will be joined by fellow veteran wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd and running back Tony Pollard. Hopkins' role in Tennessee last year was much different than in his time with the Arizona Cardinals.
His average aDOT in his three years with the Cardinals was 10.9 yards. This jumped up to 14.8 yards in his first year with the Titans. Hopkins had 39 targets of 20+ air yards, which led the NFL by 4. 29.3% of Hopkins' targets came within this range. That was 4th amongst wide receivers with at least 20 targets of 20= yards. The wide receivers in front of him were Rashid Shaheed, Gabe Davis, and Justin Watson which hints towards the downfield role he had last year.
With Calvin Ridley being 2.5 years younger and the more explosive athlete, Ridley is more likely to take over this role. Will Levis had the highest percentage of his 20+ yard pass attempts in the NFL by a whopping 6.2%. If Hopkins loses the downfield role to Ridley, Hopkins may struggle to hit 1,000 receiving yards this season. He just barely hit that mark last year, accumulating 1,057 yards.
One of the biggest changes going in favor of Hopkins' production is former Bengals Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan becoming the Titans' new Head Coach and Derrick Henry leaving the team. Both point towards a big jump in pass attempts. In each of the past two years, the Titans have had the 30th most pass attempts in the league, while the Bengals have had the 7th most.
The Titans' roster moves since hiring Callahan reinforce the notion that they will throw the ball more. Hopkins's ADP is currently 7.11 and WR39 overall. Drafting him as the WR3/4 for your fantasy team makes him a low-risk player with a mediocre reward. His days of being a top-12 Wide Receiver in fantasy are behind him.
Our consensus projections for Hopkins in the 2024 season would be: 65 receptions, 844 yards, 8 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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