The USWNT didn’t have typical sky-high expectations after a disappointing 2023 World Cup. However, the American woman have dominated 2024 so far, winning the SheBelieves Cup and the Concacaf Gold Cup. They won the Gold Cup with a 1-0 victory over Brazil March 10. The USWNT kicked off the Olympics with a 3-0 win over Zambia followed by a 4-1 victory against Germany. It concluded the group stage with a 2-1 win vs. Australia before heading into this quarterfinal match against Japan.
Japan has impressed in the group stage as well. It opened with a 2-1 loss to Spain but bounced back with 2 victories, taking down Brazil 2-1 and Nigeria 3-1. Having just 24.9% possession in its opening match against Spain was a disappointment, but in its 2nd game against another powerhouse, it had more than double the shots of Brazil.
The USWNT leads the all-time series vs. Japan 31-1-8 (win, loss, draw), including victories in 3 straight since 2020 — all in SheBelieves Cup action. Japan’s lone victory came in the 2012 Algarve Cup thanks to F Megumi Takase’s header in the 84th minute off a corner kick.
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Despite the USWNT having not competed well in the World Cup, this is a new roster and it is both fast and technically sound. The team’s experience comes in its midfield as 2 players — Rose Lavelle and Lindsey Horan — have triple-digit caps. The USWNT beat Australia and Germany in the group stage. Both are in the top 12 of the FIFA world rankings — Australia is 12th, Germany is 4th and the US is 5th.
While Japan sits 7th, it couldn’t keep up with Spain, the top-ranked nation, in its 1-goal defeat. With the USWNT playing like it might be back to its global dominance, this game could mirror the Japan-Spain battle. Japan had 10 fewer shots and 13 fewer fouls in that match. Expect a similar performance for Japan.
If one expects this game to mirror Japan’s most competitive group stage battle, it might not result in a ton of opportunities. Japan ended with just 4 shots while Spain had 7 shots on frame.
The USWNT has allowed just 9 shots on frame through its last 2 matches and should see an enhanced intensity given the knockout stage nature. The USWNT allowed just 1 goal in 4 World Cup matches last season and just 1 through its group stage in the Olympics. It has a strong backline with one of the most experienced goalkeepers in Alyssa Naeher.
Given the value here, TAKE UNDER 2.5 (+123).
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