Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener prediction, pick, start time, odds for UFC on ABC 7

Joel Alvarez and Elves Brener meet Saturday on the main card of UFC on ABC 7 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

Last event: 3-2

UFC main cards, 2024: 64-56-3

Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener UFC on ABC 7 preview

After having a four-fight winning streak snapped by Arman Tsarukyan in a fight where he suffered a horrifying cut, Alvarez (20-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC) rebounded to win his most recent fight as he choked out Marc Diakiese by second-round D’arce choke in July 2023. … Brener (16-4 MMA, 3-1 UFC) kicked off his UFC tenure by winning his first three bouts, but the streak came to an end after he dropped a unanimous decision to Myktybek Orolbai in May.

Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener UFC on ABC 7 expert pick, prediction

Despite usually ripping the UFC matchmakers for their selection of the main-card opener, I got to give them credit for once again going back to Joe Silva’s surefire card formatting signature of shunning heavyweight slop-fests to the prelims while using lightweights and featherweights to properly kick off the featured fights.

This week, Mick Maynard and Sean Shelby smartly chose a fight between Alvarez and Brener to start the main card.

Even though Alvarez has some obvious on-paper advantages as far as reach and height are concerned, I’d argue that the abnormally large lightweight will likely finish his career at middleweight given all that he must be sacrificing just to make it to the scale.

Don’t get me wrong: Alvarez appears to have some solid skills for being a clear size bully; I just don’t believe that he can continue to fight effectively past the first frame when factoring in the shown diminishing returns of his weight cut.

For that reason, I’ll happily take a flier on a durable and dogged underdog like Brener to survive the early storm and pull away down the stretch.

The pick is Brener by third-round TKO.

Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener UFC on ABC 7 odds

The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the Spaniard, listing Alvarez -188 and Brener +152 via FanDuel.

Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener UFC on ABC 7 start time, how to watch

As the main card opener, Alvarez and Brener are expected to walk out to the cage at approximately 3 p.m. ET. The fight will air on ABC and stream on ESPN+.