Team USA is the favorite to win gold, but stiff competition awaits in knockout stage at Paris Olympics

The knockout round of the men's basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics begins Tuesday, with the eight teams that advanced out of the group stage competing in single-elimination games for a chance at Olympic gold. Team USA remains the odds-on favorite, entering the quarterfinals as the No. 1 seed after going undefeated in Group C with the tournament's best point differential, outscoring Serbia, South Sudan and Puerto Rico by a combined 67 points.

Stiff competition awaits the Americans, though. The semifinals could feature a rematch with Serbia, led by three-time NBA Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokić and ace scorer Bogdan Bogdanović, while the other side of the bracket features loads of NBA talent: fellow undefeated group winners Canada and Germany, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Greece, and host nation France, paced by twin towers Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama.

Here’s a look at the quarterfinal bracket …

… and, with the scene shifting to Paris and the win-or-go-home games now upon us, here’s something to keep an eye on for each of Tuesday’s four matchups:

USA vs. Brazil (3:30 p.m. ET)

The best offense is an elite defense (and also more elite offense): The first three games of the Olympics for Team USA followed a similar script.

Steve Kerr’s club gets off to a rocky start, with the still-hasn’t-quite-gelled offense coming in fits and starts — a Joel Embiid turnover here, a Stephen Curry misfire from long range there — while the opponent stands tall for a few minutes, scratching out an early lead. Then, Kerr goes to the bench and comes back with a fresh complement of All-Stars — units largely led by some combination of Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo and Anthony Edwards, accompanied by do-it-all guards Jrue Holiday and Derrick White.

Then, the opposition mostly stops scoring for a while.

By the time the likes of Curry and LeBron James check back in, the game’s well in hand, the margin’s up to double-digits, and the U.S. is well on its way to another win.

As incredible as James has been as the quarterback of the American offense and as impressive as Durant's shooting has been — 10-for-14 from 3-point range, 10-for-11 at the foul line, a blistering 1.73 points per shot attempt in these Games — it's the pressure-bursting defense (85.5 points allowed per 100 possessions, best in the field) that has kept the U.S. ahead of the pack. Team USA averaged 10.7 steals and 5.3 blocks per game in group play — a level of disruption that helped kickstart a fast-breaking attack that produced a tournament-best 24.3 points per game in transition, according to Synergy Sports.

Other nations boast more continuity and more collective experience in international competition. Team USA’s greatest advantage lies in its overall edge in athleticism and scoring talent on the wing; the best way to leverage that is by getting stops, pushing the tempo, playing in flow, and burying the opposition on the break.

"The beauty of tonight is we played a lot of random basketball on the offensive side, and defensively we were talking to one another throughout the whole game," Durant told reporters after the tournament-opening win over Serbia. "That communication and random basketball made us tough to stop."

Getting Curry (just 8-for-25 from the field in group play, though his screening has given defenses fits) and Embiid (8-for-19 with more turnovers than assists, though he did find some rhythm against Puerto Rico) going would make the U.S. even tougher to stop, especially against tougher competition like Serbia and whichever heavyweight comes out of the other side of the bracket. But as long as Kerr and Co. can lean on the size, length, athleticism and defensive disruptiveness up and down the roster — which should only be bolstered by the return of Holiday to the lineup after missing the Puerto Rico game with an ankle injury — Team USA will remain the favorite to win its fifth consecutive gold medal.

We do talk about Bruno: To the extent that most NBA fans think of Bruno Caboclo, it's probably as perhaps the last great mystery man of the NBA Draft — the precocious Brazilian teenager whom the Toronto Raptors selected 20th overall in 2014, stunning evaluators all over and prompting analyst Fran Fraschilla to tag him with the indelible descriptor of being "two years away from being two years away."

Caboclo never fully clicked in the NBA, barely playing across parts of four seasons in Toronto before stints in Sacramento, Memphis and Houston gave way to him being out of the league at age 25. Since last most NBA watchers have seen him, though, the gangly youngster tabbed as “The Brazilian Kevin Durant” has plied his trade in France, Brazil, Mexico, Germany and Serbia. He’s filled out his frame, sharpened his game and developed into something else, perhaps a bit more prosaic but certainly more effective.

The 2024 version of Caboclo is a screen-and-dive big man with enough touch to knock down a 3 if you leave him alone, enough face-up juice to attack slower-footed defenders off the bounce, a bit more polish on his footwork in the post, and enough athleticism and length to make you think twice about testing him at the rim:

After double-digit defeats to France and Germany to open the Olympics, Brazil needed to beat Japan to have a chance of reaching the knockout stage. The 28-year-old Caboclo gave it to them, exploding for 33 points and 17 rebounds against undersized Japan to fuel a 102-84 victory that earned Brazil the right to play Team USA.

The odds are against Caboclo replicating that performance against the size, length, athleticism and physicality of the United States. If he can do it, though — if he can bull-in-a-china-shop his way into some offensive rebounds, second-chance opportunities and fouls drawn, and manage to put a scare into the heavily favored Americans, however briefly — it would offer a tidy reminder that players’ stories don’t end when they leave our field of vision, and that even prospects who don’t fulfill the expectations of others can still turn out pretty damn well.

Canada vs. France (12 p.m. ET)

How much will size matter?: Only the U.S. can match the level and depth of perimeter talent that Canada brings to bear.

Gilgeous-Alexander (19 points on 58.1% shooting, four rebounds, four assists, 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks in 27.9 minutes per game in group play) and Barrett (21 points on 59.5% shooting and four rebounds in 27.7 minutes per game) provide a devastating 1-2 punch, with SGA able to slither and slalom into whatever spot he wants on the offensive end while Barrett leans into quick decision-making and hard dribble drives to finish on the interior. Jamal Murray has yet to lock into a shot-making rhythm as he slots into more of a playmaking role, going just 1-for-10 from 3-point range in group play, but has the potential to catch fire at a moment’s notice.

The depth swings the other way, too. Dillon Brooks and Luguentz Dort form a world-class defensive wrecking crew at the point of attack, leading a unit that held opponents to 29% 3-point shooting with 15 turnovers per game in group play. Andrew Nembhard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker provide phenomenal on-ball defensive depth behind the starters. And with so many options for the toughest wing playmaking threats, Barrett and Gilgeous-Alexander — capable stoppers in their own right when engaged and locked in — can feast on lower lights, often to devastating effect:

There’s one potential downside of featuring so many wings, though: vulnerability on the glass.

With 7-foot-4 lottery pick Zach Edey bowing out of the Olympics to focus on preparing for his rookie season in the NBA, and with longtime program stalwart Tristan Thompson having aged out of the selection, Canada has relied on a center rotation of Dwight Powell, Trey Lyles, Kelly Olynyk and Khem Birch — all of whom bring more mobility than mass for a team that favors switching as a defensive strategy, and none of whom profile as a plus glass-cleaner or rim protector. As a result, Canada gave up 11.3 offensive rebounds and 10 second-chance points per game in the group stage. Finishing defensive trips was a particular problem against Spain, as a Spanish side desperate to qualify for the quarters crashed the glass with abandon, pulling in 17 of its 38 misses to tilt the possession game and nearly pull off a late comeback on the favored Canadians.

Spain couldn’t finish the job, of course, with Nembhard, Gilgeous-Alexander and Barrett combining to close the door and finish off an undefeated run through group play. But with the towering combination of Gobert and Wembanyama waiting in the quarterfinals, and potential matchups with Germany and Team USA looming beyond that, it’s worth monitoring whether the size mismatch on the interior turns into a big problem for a Canadian team looking for its first Olympic medal since 1936.

French dip: If we're keeping it a buck, the host nation might be a dicey foul call against Japan away from not even making the knockout stage:

Monaco guard Matthew Strazel did get that call, though — and he did make that 3 and the free throw to tie the game at 84 with 10.2 seconds to go, and Wembanyama did dominate overtime to avoid a disastrous defeat. But after needing a miracle against Japan and getting destroyed by Germany, the French enter the quarterfinals looking less like a force to be reckoned with than a team that might lack the requisite tools to push for a medal.

Wembanyama has been incredibly impressive in his Olympic debut, averaging 17 points, 10.7 rebounds and three assists in 30.2 minutes per game, while teaming with Gobert to lead a massive French frontcourt that led group play in blocked shots. But France has lacked top-flight guard play and offensive connectivity, with none of the options in the backcourt — from decorated veterans Evan Fournier, Nando De Colo and Andrew Albicy to younger options Strazel and Frank Ntilikina — looking consistently capable of initiating the offense and generating good looks for teammates.

Nicolas Batum remains the standard-bearer on the wing, but shouldering a significant shot-creation workload while also taking on the responsibility for slowing down the likes of SGA and Barrett might be too tall a task for the 35-year-old. And as dominant as the double-big front line of Wembanyama and Gobert seemed, it hasn't looked quite as imposing in practice, with French coach Vincent Collet at times needing to split his 7-footers — sometimes in favor of the smaller but more incisive Matthias Lessort, sometimes looking to get another playmaking wing on the floor — in hopes of decongesting an offense that averaged just 96.8 points-per-100 in group play, according to Synergy. That was good enough for fifth in group play; it was also nearly seven points-per-100 below fourth-place Canada, and nearly 15 points-per-100 behind the U.S. and Germany.

In time, we might view this French entrant as something of a waystation — the necessary growing pains that come from transitioning out of the previous era into the crashing of the Wemby Wave:

In the meantime, though, it’s tough to see France having enough firepower to hang with Canada’s surfeit of perimeter talent, barring throwback games from Batum and Fournier … or, perhaps more likely, an exceptionally loud statement of arrival on the Olympic stage from Wembanyama.

Germany vs. Greece (5 a.m. ET)

German engineering: After beating both the United States and Serbia en route to winning gold at the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup in the Philippines, Germany steamrolled through Group B, posting double-digit victories over Japan, Brazil and, most notably, France. In one of the highest-profile matchups of the tournament's opening week, Germany spent the bulk of its group-stage finale bullying the host nation, leading by more than 20 points for the lion's share of the contest before a late French rally winnowed the final margin to 14.

Germany boasts the blend of high-end talent, depth, two-way balance and physicality that fuels success in international play. They feature a lightning-bolt on-ball creator in Dennis Schröder, adept at routinely getting into the paint, collapsing the defense and either getting all the way to the rim for his own offense (19.7 points per game on 55/41/100 shooting splits in group play) or spraying the ball out to an open teammate (nine assists per game, tops among all players in the group stage). They've also got a world-class big wing in newly-maxed-out Orlando Magic star Franz Wagner, the third-leading scorer in the group stage, who made 21 of his 28 2-point shots, repeatedly slashing to the basket and finishing with authority:

Germany plays big, with multiple quality power forwards/centers — NBA veterans Daniel Theis and Moritz Wagner, longtime EuroLeague pros Johannes Voigtmann and Johannes Thiemann — flanking the 6-foot-10 Franz up front. They also feature great positional size behind Schröder and Bayern Munich sniper Andreas Obst in the backcourt, bringing 6-8 former NBA guard Isaac Bonga and 6-5 Iowa State product Nick Weiler-Babb off the bench.

The Germans put up points just as efficiently in group play as Team USA, scoring a tournament-high-tying 111.7 points per 100 possessions, according to Synergy Sports. They also finished second in defensive efficiency, conceding a scant 87.6 points-per-100, just behind the Americans’ 85.5 points-per-100. They’re aggressive at the point of attack and physical in the paint; they’re deep and experienced; they’ve got continuity and a defined punch-you-in-the-mouth identity. They’re the defending world champions for a reason — a legitimate threat not only to reach the medal stand, but to stand atop it.

One-man army?: In his Olympic debut, Giannis Antetokounmpo led all scorers in group play, averaging a tournament-high 27 points in 33.3 minutes per game on 68.9% shooting. As it turns out, international defenses don't have much more of an idea of what the hell to do with the Greek Freak than their NBA counterparts do:

Even so, though, Greece went 1-2 in group play, losing by seven points to both Canada and Spain before notching a win over Australia. The problem: a glaring lack of secondary scoring options around and behind the two-time NBA MVP, as no other member of Greece’s roster shot even 45% from the field in the group stage.

Former NBA guard and longtime EuroLeague playmaker Nick Calathes can set the table (7.3 assists per game in group play) and vets Kostas Papanikolau and Thomas Walkup can knock down a 3-pointer. But the drop-off, as you'd expect, is massive: Greece outscored its opposition by five points in the 100 minutes that Giannis played in the group stage, and got outscored by 13 in the 20 minutes he sat.

Germany’s got a bunch of big bodies to throw in Antetokounmpo’s path, and Greece doesn’t have many to pick up his slack. To pull off the upset, Greece is going to need an absolute monstrous performance from Giannis. Good thing, then, that he’s as well-equipped to deliver one as any player in the world.

Serbia vs. Australia (8:30 a.m. ET)

Two-man game: After getting blitzed by Team USA in its opener, Serbia bounced back by blowing out Puerto Rico and holding off South Sudan to finish group play 2-1 with the tournament's third-best point differential (plus-26). Jokić, as ever, poses a constant threat, efficiently pummeling defenses in the post (18.7 points per game in group play, 75% on 2-point shots) and with his playmaking (seven assists per game, constantly hunting early offense with hit-ahead outlet passes following a defensive rebound).

The difference-maker for the Serbians, though, could be Jokić’s longtime running buddy and Atlanta Hawks sixth man Bogdanović, who followed two ho-hum games to start the tournament with a torrid performance against South Sudan on Saturday, pouring in 30 points on 10-for-14 shooting with eight assists in 32 minutes of work:

The presence of Jokić effectively ensures Serbia's floor; when he's on the court, the team can compete with anyone. (Remember: Serbia played Team USA even in Jokić's 31 minutes during the group-stage opener, and got its doors blown off by 26 points in the nine minutes he sat.) It's Bogdanović, though, who might offer the 2023 FIBA World Cup silver medalists their best chance of reaching their ceiling. When he's on, he provides a devastating partner for Jokić in the pick-and-roll, a lethal spot-up option for point guard Vasilije Micić to find for catch-and-shoot triples, and the sort of flammable source of instant offense capable of reducing even elite international defenses to cinders.

Australia can throw multiple legitimate NBA perimeter defenders at Bogdanović, including new Hawks teammate Dyson Daniels. But if the leading scorer in Serbian men's basketball history can stay hot, he could push the squad one step closer to the medal stand — and give the favored Americans something else to worry about in a rematch.

The search for offense Down Under: Australia survived the three-way tie beneath Canada in Group A by virtue of having the best point differential in shared games among the three 1-2 teams, thanks to its 12-point win over Spain in the group-phase opener. It wasn't the smoothest path for the 2020 bronze medalists, who enter the quarterfinals coming off consecutive losses, but the Aussies do boast more NBA talent than any team in the field besides the U.S. and Canada, and feature a combination of size and tenacity that produced the fourth-stingiest defense of group play: just 94.3 points-per-100 allowed, according to Synergy, behind only the U.S., Germany and Canada.

The issues lie on the other end, where despite some solid individual production — 17.7 points per game on 67.7% shooting for Houston Rockets center Jock Landale, 15 points and 6.7 assists per contest for new Chicago Bulls ball-handler Josh Giddey — the offense as a whole has struggled. Only Puerto Rico and South Sudan, both of whom had to face the U.S. and Serbia, scored fewer points per 100 possessions in group play than Australia's 90.7; only those two nations and Japan scored on a lower share of their offensive possessions than the Aussies, who have converted on just 40.7% of their trips thus far.

Some of that stems from turnovers: Australia coughed it up 50 times in the group stage, an average of 16.7 miscues per game, more than any nation save Brazil. Some of it owes to a simple math problem: The Boomers only took 25 3-pointers per game in group play, fewer than any nation but Canada. But while the Canadians can overcome an interior-heavy shot diet thanks to the slashing and scoring of Gilgeous-Alexander, Barrett, Brooks and Nembhard, the Aussies just don’t have the same level of perimeter firepower.

… Unless, that is, 35-year-old legend Patty Mills can turn back the clock and bomb away, like when he scored 42 points against Slovenia in the bronze medal game in 2021:

Or like when he dropped 28 against this Serbian side (albeit with Bogdanović resting) in a tune-up game in Abu Dhabi last month:

If Mills continues misfiring like he did in group play, though — just 30% on 2-point tries, 35.1% overall — Australia might have a tough time matching baskets with Jokić and Co.