The San Francisco 49ers have the most talented roster in the NFL, and should rightfully be among the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season... but their championship window might be about to be slammed shut.
The look on several 49ers players faces after their recent Super Bowl loss to Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and company was of disbelief. For much of that game, San Francisco looked to be the better team - on their way to win their first Super Bowl together. But once again, the team was not able to make the players when it mattered the most.
That's a story that has, unfortunately, followed head coach Kyle Shanahan around since his emergence in the NFL - failing to get over the proverbial hump with the Atlanta Falcons in 2017 as offensive coordinator, before becoming head coach with the 49ers and leading them to the Super Bowl in 2020 and once again losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the championship game .
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From the moment the 49ers acquired Shanahan alongside their general manager John Lynch, many foresaw a contending team coming together. Arguably the most inventive offensive play caller in the NFL, Shanahan has been able to elevate quarterbacks to a level that many believed them to have been possible - as seen with Matt Ryan winning the MVP and Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy leading their teams to the championship game.
While progression has not been linear for the Niners since he joined, with a few losing seasons in between their NFC Championship appearances, Shanahan has consistently been able to put his players in the best situation to win - regularly being given plaudits for his regular season dominance.
While his coaching has been a big reason as to why San Francisco has been so good, Lynch also deserves considerable praise, after hitting on draft picks such as Nick Bosa , George Kittle , Fred Warner, Deebo Samuel , Brandon Aiyuk, and of course, Purdy.
Coming off the back of their playoff disappointments, Lynch decided to go all in on their roster to give themselves the best chance of winning a Super Bowl in 2022. He would make several aggressive moves, such as trading for and giving huge contracts to Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey , while also handing out monster extensions to the likes of Javon Hargrave, Charvarius Ward, as well as their draft picks in Bosa, Kittle, Warner and Samuel - not to mention trading three first-round picks to select draft bust Trey Lance .
Over the last few years, the Niners have essentially continued run it back with their roster, rarely letting go of any of their key starters, and instead opting to sign them to huge deals to remain with the team for another go-around.
Many have wondered where the 49ers are getting all of this cap space from - how can they continue to keep this team together?
Simply put, they cannot do so for the long-term, but for this year, look toward the quarterback as the reason why their roster will remain so loaded... and why it will not this time next year.
If you've read this far, you're probably well aware that the 49ers selected Purdy with the very last pick of the NFL Draft in 2022 - giving him a rookie scale contract as every other seventh-round pick will be in, making him one of the lowest paid players in the entire league.
But from the moment the 2024 season comes to an end, Purdy will become eligible for an extension - one he will undoubtedly be asking for and almost certainly not returning without being given the contract he deserves.
The NFL's passer-rating leader and Pro Bowler from last season, Purdy is not going to accept being paid less money than a back-up offensive guard heading into his fourth season - and he'd be well within his right to ask for as much as $55 million per season, around market value for a quarterback of his proven qualities.
With their current roster and the way their contracts currently align, the 49ers will not only have to make the money available to pay Purdy - but they must first open up $25 million in cap space to do so, currently being in the red by that amount heading into the campaign in 2025.
And this is before potentially signing Aiyuk to an extension this offseason - as well as Pro Bowlers Ward, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga becoming free agents next summer.
Simply put, it is quite literally impossible to keep their current roster together heading into the 2025 season, with all their current players under contract set for their cap hit to rise exponentially.
Decisions will need to be made, with Lynch and Shanahan likely needing to cut three of four key starters in order to pay Purdy alone, before looking to make other necessary upgrades to their roster, or bringing back the aforementioned players out of contract.
However, many will ask questions of Purdy's worth. Is he worthy of receiving the amount of money that other franchise quarterbacks will make? Is he replaceable - as Garoppolo was? Can the 49ers win with Purdy on so much money, taking away from other areas of their roster which has made them the well-oiled machine that they have become?
For 2024, the Niners do not need to answer those questions. They have their roster set, and can make the space to extend Aiyuk - who is currently holding out after demanding a trade or to be signed.
But they cannot keep going back to the well for another shot. It's tough to argue against this being their 'Last Dance' .
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