Once the 2024 NFL Draft came and went, conventional wisdom said the San Francisco 49ers would hold on to Brandon Aiyuk and sign him to a long-term extension.
After all, every negotiation between the 49ers and their star players has followed a very similar long and at times frustrating pattern, with resolutions typically being agreed around training camp. That changed last year when it took until a few days before the season for the 49ers to sign Nick Bosa to an historic extension.
Still, there was little to suggest the Niners, after going through the draft without trading Aiyuk, would fail to get a deal done with their second-team All-Pro. However, with multiple reports claiming the 49ers have not engaged in contract talks since May, and Aiyuk frustrated to the point of a trade request and a 'hold-in' , the situation has taken a turn few anticipated, and now it appears poised to reach a widely unexpected conclusion.
With the 49ers giving Aiyuk permission to speak to potential trade partners, agreeing the frameworks of a trade with the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots and continuing discussions with the Pittsburgh Steelers, a parting with their 2020 first-round pick now seems like the most likely outcome.
The 49ers clearly misjudged the market with Aiyuk, failing to improve on a reported offer that would have seen him paid $26 million annually despite a host of receivers with similar production receiving contracts above that.
So now they face the prospect of losing Aiyuk, their best receiver over the last two seasons who is one of the game's premier route-runners and boasts an outstanding rapport with starting quarterback Brock Purdy. If and when a trade does happen, the return seems set to be a hodgepodge of players and picks, below what the 49ers likely could have gotten had Aiyuk been dealt during the draft.
The 49ers' approach to the situation is very difficult to understand, and comments by head coach Kyle Shanahan on Tuesday make it even more perplexing.
Asked if the 49ers could be better without Aiyuk, he replied: "Brandon is a great player, so it’s real hard to be better when you lose a great player. So we have to look into anything, we have to understand the situation we’re in, what that looks like. And that does take time. So hopefully it’ll all work out best for him and best for us in the long run.”
"It’s been, at this point, for a little bit. So it’s nothing really new to me. You’re always disappointed when you can’t keep a hold of all your players or it’s not going exactly right. I don’t like losing anybody. That’s why I’m hoping it does work out here. But right now, we don’t have that solved yet. I hope it does.”
Shanahan's brief foray into the past tense towards the end of that second quote doesn't inspire much confidence that there will be some late turnaround to keep the 49ers and Aiyuk together.
And the short version of Shanahan's answer is no. No they can't be better without Aiyuk. Not by doing the deal at this point. Even if the deal ends up being made with the Browns and the 49ers get Amari Cooper in return, which would probably represent the least-worst scenario, they would still get the raw end. Aiyuk is an ascending talent at 26 years of age. Cooper has outstanding pedigree, but is 30 and a free agent next offseason.
The 49ers know they can't be better without Aiyuk, and Bosa was quick to essentially concede as much on Tuesday in his press conference.
"I think it'd be huge," said Bosa when asked what kind of loss Aiyuk would be.
"I trust John [Lynch] and Kyle, but he's a very tough player to replace."
The 49ers' reputation for being stubborn negotiators is well-earned, as is their reputation for being one of the most dynamic and flexible offensive teams in the NFL. This year, though, that obstinance is set to backfire and, in turn, make their offense less dynamic, less versatile and easier to defend.
It's an approach that makes no sense and, regardless of the explanation the 49ers provide if a trade does happen, it probably never will.
Related: Christian McCaffrey's slip of the tongue might have just revealed how the 49ers' Brandon Aiyuk saga will end
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