Redistricting ballot measure will go before voters in November

Welcome to the Tuesday, July 30, 2024, Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Redistricting ballot measure will go before voters in November
2. What’s on the ballot in the Kansas primaries
3. A closer look at the Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District

Redistricting ballot measure will go before voters in November

An initiative to amend the Ohio Constitution and create a Citizens Redistricting Commission will appear on the Ohio ballot on Nov. 5. The initiative would replace the current Ohio Redistricting Commission with a 15-member Citizens Redistricting Commission (CRC).

In 2015, voters approved Ohio Issue 1, which created the seven-member Ohio Redistricting Commission to provide for state legislative districts. The Ohio Redistricting Commission is a politician commission structured to require that at least two members are from the Legislature’s minority party. To approve a legislative redistricting plan for 10 years, at least two members from each major political party must agree to the plan. If the commission fails to achieve a bipartisan vote, a plan can be passed by a simple majority vote of any four members, but this plan will only last for four years.

In 2018, voters approved a constitutional amendment, also titled Issue 1, on congressional redistricting. Before Issue 1 (2018), the Ohio General Assembly was responsible for adopting the state’s congressional redistricting plan. Issue 1 created a new system and new requirements for passing congressional redistricting plans:

• The Legislature could adopt a 10-year congressional redistricting plan with 60% of members in each chamber voting in favor and 50% of Republicans and 50% of Democrats voting in favor.
• If the Legislature fails to meet these vote requirements, the seven-member Ohio Redistricting Commission, established via Issue 1 in 2015, would have a chance to adopt a 10-year congressional redistricting plan with support from at least two members of the minority party.
• If the commission fails to adopt a plan, the Legislature would get a second opportunity to adopt a 10-year plan, but with a lesser requirement of one-third of the members from the two major parties supporting the proposal.
• Failure at this stage would result in the Legislature adopting a plan through a simple majority vote, with no bipartisan vote requirement but stricter criteria, and with the plan lasting two general election cycles (four years), rather than 10 years.

The Coalition for Redistricting Reform led the campaign in support of Issue 1. No PACs opposed it. The Coalition raised $221,227. The three largest donors were Strong Communities Ohio ($56,977), the National Democratic Redistricting Committee PAC ($50,000), and Ohioans for a Healthy Economy ($15,000).

Both the 2015 and 2018 initiatives were used in the redistricting process following the 2020 census. You can read more about that process here.

In 2023, the Citizens Not Politicians PAC launched an initiative campaign to replace the systems enacted in 2015 and 2018 with the Citizens Redistricting Commission. The commission would be responsible for adopting state legislative and congressional redistricting plans and would have 15 members: five Republicans, five Democrats, and five independents or members of other political parties.

Citizens Not Politicians raised $3.15 million through Dec. 31, 2023. The next campaign finance deadline is July 31, 2024. The largest donors were Article IV ($550,000), a nonprofit associated with John and Laura Arnold; Sixteen Thirty Fund ($550,000); and the ACLU ($504,990).

There is no organized opposition to the initiative yet. The Ohio Ballot Board must approve the ballot language for the initiative by Aug. 22.

In 33 states, state legislatures play the dominant role in congressional redistricting. In eight states—Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Montana, and Washington—commissions draw congressional district lines. Eight of these have non-politician commissions, while one state, New Jersey, has a politician commission. In two states—New York and Virginia— legislatures share redistricting authority with commissions. The remaining states comprise one congressional district each, rendering redistricting unnecessary.

State legislatures play the dominant role in state legislative redistricting in 34 states. Commissions draw state legislative district lines in 14 states, of which nine have non-politician commissions and five have politician commissions. New York and Virginia use hybrid systems.

What’s on the ballot in the Kansas primaries

On Aug. 6, Kansas voters will decide primaries for four U.S. House districts, five seats on the Kansas State Board of Education, and all 165 seats in the Kansas Legislature. Municipal offices in Topeka and Sedgwick County are also up for election this year. Currently, Republicans represent three of the four U.S. House districts in Kansas, with a Democrat representing the remaining district. Republicans have a 29-11 majority in the state Senate and an 85-40 majority in the state House. Michigan, Missouri, and Washington are also holding primaries on Aug. 6.

U.S. House

• Fifteen candidates are running for Kansas’ four U.S. House districts, including five Democrats and 10 Republicans, an average of 3.75 candidates per district. There was an average of 2.25 candidates per district in 2022, 4.75 candidates per district in 2020 and 6.00 in 2018.
• The 2nd Congressional District is the only open district in Kansas this year. Incumbent Rep. Jacob LaTurner (R-02) is not running for re-election.
• Seven candidates—two Democrats and five Republicans—are running for the open 2nd Congressional District, the most candidates running for a district in Kansas this year.
• Four primaries—one Democratic and three Republican—are contested. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 4.2 primaries were contested each election cycle.
• One incumbent—Rep. Tracey Mann (R-01)—is running in a contested primary this year, tying with 2020 for the second-fewest in the last 10 years.

State executive

• Five seats on the Kansas State Board of Education are up for election.
• The Board is an elected executive agency responsible for managing the state’s public K-12 education.
• Elections to the board are staggered, with even-numbered districts holding elections in presidential election years and odd-numbered districts holding elections in midterm election years.

State legislature

• All 125 state House districts and all 40 Senate districts are up for election this year. Kansas has had a divided government since Gov. Laura Kelly (D) assumed office in 2019. Republicans have super-majorities in both chambers of the Legislature.
• Kansas has 41 contested state legislative primaries. That is the fewest contested primaries in years that all 165 legislative seats have been up for election since Ballotpedia started tracking in 2012.

• There are 11 contested Democratic primaries and 30 contested Republican primaries. This is a record low for both parties since 2012. An average of 15 contested races occurred in years when both chambers were up for eleciton. The average for Republicans was 59.7.
• There are 318 total candidates running for state legislature including 140 Democrats and 178 Republicans. For Republicans, this is a record low since 2012. For Democrats, this is less than the average of 142.3.
• There are 135 incumbents running for re-election in the primaries. Eighteen, or 13.3%, face primary challengers. That is a record-low number of incumbents facing primary challengers in years when both chambers are up for election. The average number of incumbents seeking re-election in those years was 133.1.
• Thirty incumbents did not seek re-election this year. This was more than the combined average of 22 for both legislative chambers.
• There are 11 retiring incumbents in the Senate, including one Democrat and 10 Republicans. This is a record high for Republicans since 2012, who had an average of 5 retirements from 2010 to 2022. For Democrats, the average number of retirements was 0.7 during the same period.
• Three Democrats and 16 Republicans also retired from the House. The average number of retirements for Democrats was 3.9 and the average number of retirements for Republicans was 15.7 during the time span noted above.

Municipal elections

• The City of Topeka will hold a primary for district attorney.
• Sedgwick County will hold primaries for the offices of county clerk, district attorney, register of deeds, sheriff, and treasurer.

To see more upcoming election dates, see our elections calendar.

A closer look at the Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections — the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.

Today, we’re looking at the Aug. 13, Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District. Rebecca Cooke (D), Katrina Shankland (D), and Eric Wilson (D) are running. Incumbent Derrick Van Orden (R) is running for re-election. In 2022, Van Orden defeated Brad Pfaff (D) 51.8%-48.1%.

Cooke said her lack of legislative experience is an asset: “I’m running a campaign that’s really focused on my lived experiences… they know I’ve experienced a lot of the same hardship they have, and I’ve walked a mile in their shoes.” She has been critical of Shankland’s legislative experience being an advantage, saying that people were less trusting of long-serving politicians.

Shankland has focused on her career in the Wisconsin Assembly, saying voters would not want a “candidate coming into Congress on training wheels.” She highlighted her legislative record in an advertisement, comparing it to Cooke’s lack of experience.

Cooke has received the endorsement of the Blue Dog Coalition and the New Democrat Coalition. Shankland has received endorsements from labor unions in the district and from Rep. Mark Pocan (D), who represents Wisconsin’s 2nd Congressional District. Wilson has received the endorsements of Our Wisconsin Revolution and the Center for Freethought Equality.

Cooke, a small business owner, served on the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation. She ran for the 3rd Congressional District in 2022, when Pfaff defeated her in the Democratic primary 38.9% to 31.1%. As of July 15, Cooke raised the most money of the Democratic candidates. Shankland was elected to the Wisconsin Assembly in 2012, representing District 71. Wilson has worked in the real estate and healthcare industries.

Based on reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Cooke has raised $1.8 million and spent $787,359, Shankland raised $797,979 and spent $455,852, and Wilson raised $127,300 and spent $81,741.

As of June 3, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter ranked the general election Lean Republican. Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranked the election as Likely Republican.