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Analyzing the Bears WR Room, Post-Hibernation
By Quinten Krzysko,
2024-05-28
With Chicago Bears organized team activities (OTAs) underway and training camp right around the corner, it's time to start familiarizing yourself with the team's roster. This year, I've chosen to break this down as individual articles for each position group. Look out for two positional previews per week, paired with podcast episodes available on both Apple and Spotify , as well as the live stream on YouTube !
In 2023, Shane Waldron was the offensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks. His offense featured a notable rate of heavy personnel packages. However, despite using more tight ends than any other offense in the NFL, the Seahawks ranked 31st, 22nd, and 27th in rush attempts in the previous three seasons. Additionally, they only ranked 17th, 15th, and 31st in pass attempts over that same span. While Waldron's offense hasn't been as run-heavy as expected, the rushing stats can be deceiving.
In the breakdown of running backs, I mentioned that Waldron might like the illusion of running the football more than actually utilizing a run-heavy offense. I still believe this to be true. But after reviewing the passing numbers, I see a more balanced approach. At the end of the day, Waldron wants to create opportunities for explosive pass plays, and he uses the run game to do so.
The Seahawks ranked 32nd, 22nd, and 32nd in total offensive plays over the last three seasons. They didn't run a lot of plays, but they did score a lot of points. Over the last three years, they ranked 17th, ninth, and 16th in points scored. According to RBSDM.com , the Seahawks ranked 13th in success rate and 10th in EPA per play over the last three seasons.
But what do all these numbers mean? Waldron ran an explosive passing offense that still converted at a high rate. They scored often and didn't require many plays to do so. In 2023, the Seahawks ranked seventh in pass plays of 15+ yards despite ranking 32nd in total offensive plays and 17th in pass attempts. Moral of the story: expect plenty of explosive pass opportunities from Waldron.
Chicago Bears Wide Receiver Room
2024 Chicago Bears Wide Receiver Room
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DJ Moore
I believe DJ Moore will be the Bears' most-targeted receiver in Shane Waldron's offense. Regardless of personnel, I expect Moore to be on the field. His versatility is the main reason I expect him to be on the field at all times. Moore's ability to win at all three levels of the field from a variety of alignments will be a huge asset in an offense that relies heavily on creating mismatches.
I feel like Moore's role could be considered a mixture of what DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett did in Seattle. Moore offers more alignment and route versatility than Metcalf but can be more of a vertical threat outside than Lockett.
Keenan Allen
DJ Moore and Keenan Allen Stats
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I have had a hard time envisioning what exactly Keenan Allen 's role will be. Over the last three years, roughly 60% of his snaps and over 50% of his targets have been from the slot. Allen is one of the best slot receivers in the NFL, and I expect the Bears to lean into that. But with Waldron's tendency to use heavy personnel, I don't expect Allen to play more than 70% of the Bears' offensive snaps.
I see a slot-specific role within the 11-personnel package that keeps the 32-year-old's legs fresh and limits his blocking requirements on rushing downs. This setup would use Moore and Odunze in heavy personnel packages, allowing Allen to play within the spread concepts that Waldron likes to employ in passing situations. While this idea would likely limit his production, it would keep his legs fresh throughout the season and could extend his career long-term.
Rome Odunze
Rome Odunze could fit into more of the DK Metcalf mold as a downfield ball winner. But he's not necessarily locked into that role, either. His skill set will allow him to play the "X" role, but he's versatile enough to be used in other ways. I see Odunze as a staple for the Bears in heavy personnel packages and on rushing downs.
Odunze's blocking and size should be an asset in the run game, and the vertical threat he poses will stretch the field out of condensed formations. Ultimately, I see Odunze and Moore being somewhat interchangeable, with Odunze filling a more typical "X" role more often. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Odunze's role limited to an extent earlier in the year with a growing snap share every week.
Other Wide Receivers
Beyond the Bears' big three wide receivers, they have Tyler Scott, Velus Jones Jr., Collin Johnson, Nsimba Webster, and Dante Pettis. Most teams roster six receivers entering the regular season. Both Scott and Jones feel like roster locks, given their previous draft status and contributions on special teams. For the final receiver spot, it's open to competition.
While I don't love the depth of the receiver room behind the big three, it's hard to complain. The Bears have three receivers who could start for many NFL teams, making inevitable injuries easier to withstand. It's worrisome when Tyler Scott is one injury away from being your No. 2 receiver, but you aren't losing any sleep because he's an injury away from being your No. 3 receiver.
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