Kyle Huesmann’s Iowa Football Season Prediction

College football season is nearly upon us. Arguably the best regular season in all of sports will have a different feel this season with conference realignment and an expanded playoff changing the picture. For Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes, the expectation is that they will be in the thick of the race to make the College Football Playoff for the first time. It won’t be long before we get to see if they can turn the expectations into reality.

The Hawkeyes are coming off a 10-4 season, but many would argue it didn’t feel like it, as they were outscored 61-0 over their last two games and 92-0 against ranked opponents. This season, Tim Lester comes in as OC attempting to turn the tides of the offense. He has ten starters returning to work with, including a stacked running back room and a pair of excellent tight ends, while Iowa is fifth in the Power 5 in career offensive line starts returning. There are two big questions for me when I look at the Hawkeyes offense. Can Cade McNamara stay healthy for an entire season? Do the Hawkeyes have enough at wide receiver? If the answer to both of those questions are yes, then the Tim Lester offense might just be enough of a refreshing new look to help Iowa jump to at least a respectable level on this side of the ball.

Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the football, it’s business as usual for Phil Parker and Co. The linebacking group is arguably the best in the country with Jay Higgins (171 tkls) and Nick Jackson (110 tkls) returning, as well as Kyler Fisher (26 tkls). Cooper DeJean is gone in the secondary, but everyone else returns, including Sebastian Castro (67 tkls, 7 tfl) and Quinn Schulte (65 tkls). Don’t forget Xavier Nwankpa at safety too. The back seven of this defense is as good as anyone in the country. My one question comes up front on the defensive line, where the Hawkeyes lost Logan Lee and Joe Evans. I like what the starting group has to offer, with Deontae Craig and Ethan Hurkett coming off the edge, plus Yahya Black and Aaron Graves in the middle. That being said, the rest of the group isn’t terribly experienced. I expect Kelvin Bell’s group to have a surprise or two this season.

There’s no reason to think that the Hawkeyes cannot earn a spot in the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff. The defense should not see much drop off, if any, in the points per game department (14.8), while Iowa has managed to win 28 games over the last three seasons, despite averaging just 18.8 ppg on offense. The Hawkeyes are a respectable offense away from being a real threat. Las Vegas has Iowa’s O/U set at 8.0 wins, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up being favorites in potentially ten or 11 games. So, how do I see the season playing out? Well let’s get right into it. My 2024-25 Iowa Football Season Prediction.

August 31st – vs Illinois State Redbirds

Sometimes it is hard to know what to expect from an FCS opponent, but the Redbirds enter the season ranked 19th in the preseason FCS poll. The Hawkeyes won last time these two teams met up in a season opener (31-14 in ’15). ISU went 6-5 last season, with a 40-21 loss to South Dakota State. Offensively they brought in K-State QB transfer Jake Rubley, while they return three of their top four WR’s, including Daniel Sobkowicz (933 yds, 10 TD). In the backfield, they return All-MVC Newcomer of the Year running back Mason King (980 yds, 14 TD), so their offensive attack should be respected.

I don’t expect the Redbirds to be a push over on the defensive side either, as they return their top seven tacklers, including All-MVC linebacker Amir Abdullah (9.5 sks). ISU has gotten outscored 90-10 in their last three games against FBS opponents and will be up against one of the nation’s best defenses. This will be a good dress rehearsal for the Tim Lester offense prior to the Cy-Hawk Game.

Prediction: WIN (1-0)

Confidence Level: 9.6/10

September 7th – vs Iowa State Cyclones

Last time the Cyclones visited Kinnick, they pulled out a 10-7, rain soaked win, but Matt Campbell is still just 1-7 against Iowa. Their is a lot of excitement around this Iowa State team and for good reason, as they return 19 of 22 starters from a team that finished 7-6 last season. Offensively, QB Rocco Becht (3120 yds, 23-8 TD/INT) and RB Abu Sama (614 yds, 6 TD) impressed as freshman, while the WR duo of Jayden Higgins (983 yds, 6 TD) and Jaylin Noel (820 yds, 7 TD) returns. The Hawkeyes did hold them to just 290 total yards last season. Defensively, ISU returns nine starters, including six preseason All-Big 12 selections (Phil Steele), led by NB Beau Freyler (107 tkls) and S Jeremiah Cooper (45 tkls, 5 INT). I believe this game will reflect the last several meetings. A low-scoring four quarter battle. That being said, I don’t think the Hawkeyes will drop two in a row at Kinnick to the Cyclones.

Prediction: WIN (2-0)

Confidence Level: 6.6/10

September 14th – vs Troy Trojans

A classic trap game sandwiched between a pair of rivalry games. Luckily for Iowa, this matchup against the Trojans doesn’t have the same bite as it would have last season. Troy has won 10+ games in five of the last eight seasons, including an 11-3 mark last season, but is facing a rebuild under first-year head coach Gerad Parker, with just four starters returning. Former WVU transfer QB Goose Crowder (94 yds, 1-0 TD/INT) is expected to be the starter and will have receiver Chris Lewis (753 yds, 10 TD) as his main target, but they’re 114th in returning production. Defensively, Troy returns linebacker Jordan Stringer (68 tkls), but overall they bring back just two of their top 14 tacklers. The Hawkeyes should be able to comfortably take care of the Trojans ahead of the battle for Floyd of Rosedale.

Prediction: WIN (3-0)

Confidence Level: 9.6/10

September 21st – at Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Hawkeyes have won 10 of the last 12 in this rivalry, but lost last year in dramatic and confusing fashion. The Gophers went just 6-7, but returns 15 starters. Offensively, the running back room is loaded with talent and could go five deep led by Darius Taylor (799 yds, 5 TD) and three experienced transfers. New Hamphire transfer QB Max Brosmer (FCS Heisman finalist) will run the show, with receiver Daniel Jackson (831 yds, 8 TD) as his top target. Their defense allowed 29.1 ppg in Big Ten play, but returns eight starters, including defensive end Danny Striggow (6.0 sks), NB Jack Henderson (59 tkls) and LB Cody Lindenberg (31 tkls, 4 gm). Their Vegas O/U is just 4.5 wins, but their talent level is well above that, in my opinion.

I have a feeling Iowa players, coaches and fans will have an extra edge for this one after the preposterous end to last season’s game. Floyd of Rosedale returns to Iowa City after a year in Minneapolis that included a slightly awkward night in PJ Fleck’s bed.

Prediction: WIN (4-0)

Confidence Level: 6.8/10

October 5th – at Ohio State Buckeyes

The Hawkeyes have not been very successful against Ohio State, losing 16 of the last 19 meetings, including 54-10 in ’22. The Buckeyes added a couple of transfers and are one of the most talented teams in the country. They brought in K-State transfer QB Will Howard (2643 yds, 24-10 TD/INT) who presents a bigger threat with his feet than Kyle McCord did. Also in the backfield will be the nation’s best running back duo, with Treveyon Henderson and Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins combining for over 2,000 yards last year. The wide receiver room is a bit inexperienced, but Emeka Egbuka (515 yds, 4 TD) is the next star. Defensively, the Buckeyes allowed just 11.2 ppg and will be stingy again. Defensive ends Jack Sawyer/JT Tuimoloau (11.5 sks) are game wreckers, while they added All-American Alabama transfer safety Caleb Downs (107 tkls) on the back side. Ohio State is 61-5 at home over the last ten seasons. It would take quite the herculean effort for Iowa to make it six losses.

Prediction: LOSS (4-1)

Confidence Level: 2.0/10

October 12th – vs Washington Huskies

No one in the country will look more different than Washington will this year. The Huskies had a magical season, advancing all the way to the national championship game last year, but are 132nd in returning experience and are under the direction of former Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch. They return just two starters, with both of them coming on the defensive side of the ball. Miss State QB transfer Will Rogers (1626 yds, 12-4 TD/INT), Arizona RB transfer Jonah Coleman (871 yds, 5 TD) and California WR transfer Jeremiah Hunter (731 yds, 7 TD) will lead the offense. Defensively, the Huskies return three of their top five tacklers, including linebacker Carson Bruener (86 tkls and corner Elijah Jackson (61 tkls), but will rely on a couple of transfers to fill some holes. I think Jedd Fisch is a really good coach, but there’s a lot to replace in year one. The Hawkeyes will win hosting Washington at Kinnick for the first time since 1964!

Prediction: WIN (5-1)

Confidence Level: 7.5/10

October 19th – at Michigan State Spartans

The third opponent on the Hawkeyes schedule with a new head coach, Jonathan Smith takes over the Spartans program after six seasons at Oregon State. Michigan State is coming off of a 4-8 season that saw them lose eight of their last ten games. The Spartans return just eight starters, but an injection of transfer talent is expected to help quite a bit. Defensively, MSU allowed 30.9 ppg in Big Ten play last season and Jonathan Smith brought in double digit transfers to help fix things. Their top four tacklers are back, including LB Cal Haladay (91 tkls), while MTSU transfer LB Wayne Matthews (135 tkls) was one of many big additions. Offensively, they have a good duo of backs with Nathan Carter (798 yds, 4 TD) and UMass transfer Kay’ron Lynch-Adams (1157 yds, 12 TD), while top receiver Montorie Foster is back (576 yds). I’m not sold on Oregon State transfer Aidan Chiles at quarterback and they are 124th in career offensive line starts. The Hawkeyes will handle business in East Lansing.

Prediction: WIN (6-1)

Confidence Level: 8.0/10

October 26th – vs Northwestern Wildcats

Not one single person expected the Wildcats to have the season they did last year after David Braun was forced to take over the program in a tough spot late in the summer after Pat Fitzgerald was fired. Against all odds, Northwestern went 8-5 and won the Las Vegas Bowl over Utah. Offensively, the ‘Cats bring in former Vanderbilt quarterback Mike Wright and South Dakota State OC Zach Lujan. Meanwhile, top back Cam Porter (651 yds) and three of the top four pass catchers, including tight end Bryce Kirtz (701 yds, 5 TD) return, plus three starters on the offensive line. On the defensive side of the ball, the ‘Cats lose three of their top five tacklers, but return 16 of 20, including linebacker Xander Mueller (110 tkls).

Northwestern had a remarkable year last season and, on paper, could be better this year. I’ll take the Hawkeyes to win their fifth in the last six meetings against the ‘Cats, but six of the last eight have been decided by a touchdown or less, so expect this to be painfully close in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: WIN (7-1)

Confidence Level: 7.6/10

November 2nd – vs Wisconsin Badgers

The Badgers were not quite as good offensively as I expected under new OC Phil Longo, averaging 23.5 ppg and they finished 7-6 last season. Luke Fickell brought in Miami FL quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (2703 yds, 19-12 TD/INT) to run the show. Wisconsin loses Braelon Allen in the backfield, but Chez Mellusi (307 yds, 4 gms) returns from injury, while they added Oklahoma transfer Tawee Walker (513 yds, 7 TD). Their top two receivers are back, while center Jake Renfro is back from injury to essentially give them four returning starters on the offensive line. Defensively, the Badgers lose three of their top five tacklers, but return seven of their top ten, including safety Hunter Wohler (120 tkls) and linebacker Jake Chaney (80 tkls). They also added two linebackers from the portal, with Arkansas Jaheim Thomas (90 tkls) and Syracuse Leon Lowery (46 tkls).

I expect Wisconsin to, once again, be very solid on defense, while their offense should see decent improvement in year two under Phil Longo. The Hawkeyes have gone undefeated at home just once since 2004 and I feel like the Badgers tough schedule is causing them to go a little under the radar with the talent they have. Wisconsin wins in Iowa City for the first time since 2018.

Prediction: LOSS (7-2)

Confidence Level: 4.8/10

November 8th – at UCLA Bruins (Friday)

A trip to the Rose Bowl for a Big Ten team used to mean something special, but with the addition of UCLA to the conference, it will be a common occurence. The Bruins are coming off an 8-5 season, including a bowl win over Boise State and are under the direction of first-year head coach Deshaun Foster. Offensively, UCLA will be led by quarterback Ethan Garbers (1136, 11-3 TD/INT) who split time last year with Dante Moore who is now at Oregon. Garbers has his top three receivers back, including slot receiver Logan Loya (655 yds, 5 TD), while the offensive line returns three starters. If TJ Harden (827 yds, 8 TD) can shoulder the load at running back, the Bruins could have a solid offensive attack. The questions come on defense, with UCLA losing nine of their top 12 tacklers, including their DL trio that combined for 26.0 sacks. The Hawkeyes don’t normally play well out west (Arizona ’10, Rose Bowl ’16) and this is a unique late night Friday game, but the Bruins questions defensively have me picking Iowa.

Prediction: WIN (8-2)

Confidence Level: 7.2/10

November 23rd – at Maryland Terrapins

The Terrapins are trending in the right direction under head coach Mike Locksley, winning three straight bowl games and finishing with an 8-5 record the last two seasons. Maryland isn’t generally known as a defense-led team, but they could be just that this season. The Terps return top linebacker Ruben Hyppolite (66 tkls) and seven D-lineman that started a game a year ago. They lost a bit in the secondary, but safeties Dante Trader (53 tkls) and Glendon Miller (36 tkls, 4 INT) are back. Offensively, Maryland was fourth in scoring (26.3 ppg) during Big Ten play, but return just four starters. NC State transfer QB MJ Morris (716 yds, 7-5 TD/INT) takes the spot of Taulia Tagovailoa and will have receivers Tai Felton (723 yds, 6 TD) and Kaden Prather (666 yds, 5 TD) back, plus running back Roman Hemby who caught 38 passes and ran for nearly 700 yards. The question comes on the OLine, where they are 112th in career starts.

This could be a sneaky tough game on the road late in the year, especially if Maryland is having a good season, but the Terps are 0-34 against ranked Big Ten opponents. Hawkeyes won 51-14 last time they were in College Park. They’ll win again this year.

Prediction: WIN (9-2)

Confidence Level: 6.8/10

November 29th – vs Nebraska Cornhuskers (Friday)

The Huskers are hoping that this is the year that they can break through and get to their first bowl game since 2016. If they are going to do that, they will need a good year from true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola. He has the pieces around him to be successful, with three of the top four pass catchers returning, plus the addition of Wake Forest Jahmal Banks (653 yds, 4 TD) and former Wyoming Isaiah Neyor from the portal. Running back Gabe Ervin (477 yds, 5 TD) returns and the Huskers rank 11th in the country in career offensive line starts. Defensively, Nebraska allowed just 18.3 ppg a year ago and returns eight starters, including linebacker Isaac Gifford (86 tkls) and one of the best defensive line units in the Big Ten led by tackle Ty Robinson (29 tkls, 11 hurries).

The Huskers have the defense to be competitive in most games and that will be no different come Black Friday. Barring an injury, Raiola will be on start #12 and *should* be playing better than week one. I think the Hawkeyes sneak out a win at home, but this one has never been easy and it definitely won’t be this year.

Prediction: WIN (10-2)

Confidence Level: 5.8/10

Final Thoughts

Tally everything up and I have the Hawkeyes finishing with a 10-2 overall record and a 7-2 record in Big Ten play. That does not figure to be good enough for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, so we turn to the College Football Playoff. Is 10-2 good enough to make the expanded 12-team playoff in year one of its existence?

Over the past five full seasons, 19 of 28 (67.9%) Power 5 teams that ended the regular season with a 10-2 record were inside of the CFP Top 12 going into Conference Championship Week. It is worth noting that both times Iowa has been 10-2, they have been outside of the CFP top 12 (#16 in ’23, #13 in ’21). This means that the Hawkeyes would have a shot in the scenario that I have laid out, but would really need someone like Iowa State, Wisconsin and/or Nebraska to crack into the top 25 to help the resume look playoff worthy.

If Iowa was left out of the CFP with a 10-2 record, they would likely be headed to Tampa for the ReliaQuest Bowl, as they are out of the running for the Citrus Bowl this season. If they went to the ReliaQuest Bowl, it would be their first trip since the name change (formerly Outback) and would come against an SEC team. The 12-team playoff makes it tougher to guess, but Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma and LSU could all be potential opponents.

The post Kyle Huesmann’s Iowa Football Season Prediction appeared first on On3 .