OPINION: Clemson and FSU getting ranked ahead of Miami Hurricanes in preseason polls has little basis in reality, and recent history proves it

Clemson. Florida State. Miami.

That’s pretty much the consensus rankings of ACC teams – in that order – when it comes to national pundits, national rankings like the Coaches Poll and also the ACC Media voting .

Rinse and repeat. Clemson No. 1 in the ACC. Florida State No. 2. Miami No. 3.

You see it all over the place in that order, right?

If that holds true, then it will be the Canes on the outside looking in come the ACC title game and, we’d assume, the College Football Playoff. If that holds true some of the luster will come off a team that’s brought in 10 starting caliber transfers in a win-now mentality for Mario Cristobal, including star QB Cam Ward and star RB Damien Martinez. If that holds true, there will be some unhappy Miami fans given the lofty expectations.

But as you look at the way things tend to appear in mid-August vs. how they actually play out by December, you will see that these preseason polls are simply guesswork, smoke and mirrors. Put ACC team names on a dartboard and hit two of them, and that’s probably got as much chance of being the conference’s top two teams as the media’s picks the last several years … as we’ll show later in this column.

As it pertains to the present?

FSU is getting all its hype off an undefeated 2023 regular season that was dominated by transfers who are no longer there, as well as departed QB Jordan Travis (transferred from Louisville in 2019). Like Miami, the Seminoles are relying heavily on new portal guys to come through.

Clemson, along with FSU, is generating some of its hype from past results, although the Tigers have a much longer track record of success in the last decade-plus than the Seminoles. Clemson doesn’t rely much on the portal but has dominated the ACC for most years since 2011. In truth, though, the program has been slipping the last several seasons with the rest of the pack approaching (since a 14-win season in 2019 the team has won 10, 10, 11 and nine games).

Also noteworthy is Miami beat Clemson last year (the teams don’t face each other this season).

So how do you separate the hype from reality?

Well, until the games are played it’s difficult. But roster to roster, you’ll find all three programs with a lot of promise on both sides of the ball (more on that later). The difference in record between the trio could come down to a field goal, a turnover, a blocked punt that causes a loss.

Or it could come down to just a bad week or two.

In a general sense, the past is a predictor of the future, right? Which brings us to our earlier point of how you simply have to take these preseason polls with a grain of salt. Let’s just look at the ACC predictions in the preseason and then the end results to show how ridiculous some of these preseason picks can be:

2023

The ACC preseason media poll had Clemson first followed by FSU, North Carolina, NC State and Miami, with Duke and Pitt tied for sixth. The actual results? The favorite Clemson finished 4-4 in ACC play, ranking sixth in the conference, with FSU undefeated and Louisville – which was picked eighth in the preseason poll, finishing second. So way off the mark.

2022

Clemson was picked first in the Atlantic preseason poll and finished first, with FSU picked fifth in the Atlantic (third-worst) but placing second. So way off the mark with FSU. In the Atlantic the media picked Miami first and Pitt second, but it was  North Carolina that won the division followed by Duke (picked to be in last place by media in the preseason) with Pitt also tied for second. Miami ended 3-5 in the ACC, third from the bottom. So way off the mark.

2021

Clemson was picked to win the Atlantic in the preseason ACC media poll but finished behind Wake Forest, which had been picked to finish fifth in the division. In the Coastal, North Carolina was the heavy favorite followed by Miami, but it was Pittsburgh that emerged on top (the Panthers were fourth in the preseason poll). Again, huge misses.

So this year when you see FSU and Clemson mentioned in the top 10 or 15 nationally, as the top two in the ACC media poll, and ahead of a Miami that sometimes cracks the top 20 and was picked third in the ACC by media, take it all with a grain of salt.

This Miami team has so many new pieces that it can hit like dynamite … or be a group of guys that just don’t mesh real well.

Most believe it will be the former.

And if it is, watch out.

Because on paper, without looking at polls, Miami seems to be every bit as good as any team in the conference. You can see the discrepancy in polls vs. talent just by picking up the Athlon Sports preseason magazine.

Turn to page 14 and you’ll see that Miami’s “unit ranks” by position in the ACC are No. 1 at QB, 1 at RB, 1 at WR, 1 at OL, 4 at DL, 2 at LB and 6 at DB. Clemson’s mirrored in the same categories are 7, 6, 8, 4, 2, 1 and 1, while FSU is 2, 2, 4, 2, 1, 3, 2.

Add up all the numbers with the lowest being best, of course, and Miami is at 16, FSU 16 and Clemson 29. That is reflective of how the units stack up for the teams, according to Athlon. But at the same time, for some reason, Athlon doesn’t follow its own unit rankings and has FSU ranked No. 12 in its preseason poll, Clemson 15th and Miami 20th.

(Athlon Magazine’s preseason unit rankings)

Smoke and mirrors.

On paper Miami and Clemson are clearly the top 2 by positions in the publication, yet the Canes rank third out of the three.

Where is the respect?

Us against Athlon, us against the world, whatever you want to call it, if Miami is going to be “back,” at some point it needs to prove these polls based on past issues or negative perceptions is wrong.

Maybe, just maybe, that starts this year.

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