FPI is a metric that looks to predict future outcomes. Coming into the season, it has North Carolina ranked 43rd in the country with a projected record of 7.5-4.6 for the season. It also gives the Tar Heels an 8.4 percent chance to make it to the College Football Playoff this season. Those are outlooks for the season as a whole, of course, and each individual game has its own percent chance to win.
So, here is a look at North Carolina’s 2024 schedule and how the Tar Heels are currently projected to stack up in each of those games, according to FPI.
Aug. 29: North Carolina at Minnesota — 54.6% chance of win
(Photo by Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)
The North Carolina Tar Heels are starting the season with a road trip to Minnesota. It’s become an intriguing game in several different respects. After all, it’s the first game of the season, so there’s always going to be unknowns. However, in this case, both teams have worked to not reveal the depth charts for the game.
This is a game that will lead to plenty of reactions because it’s the first actual point of information that fans will get on either team this season. Going into the game, though, FPI has it as a very close matchup. Still, North Carolina remains a slight FPI favorite.
Sep. 7: North Carolina vs. Charlotte — 88.2% chance of win
Tommy Gilligan | USA TODAY Sports
In Week 2, North Carolina will return home to host an in-state G5 opponent, Charlotte. Ahead of the season, it looks like a game that should be a fairly comfortable win for the Tar Heels. After all, FPI is giving UNC an 88.2 percent chance to win this game.
Charlotte is coming off a 3-9 season and after Fall Camp, head coach Biff Poggi says that half of his starters are already injured. Even with questions surrounding North Carolina, this should still be a win. Of course, upset always do happen in college football.
Sep. 14: North Carolina vs. NC Central — 99% chance of win
North Carolina will play a third straight non-conference matchup to open the season. This time, UNC is going to be taking on NC Central, an FCS program. Unsurprisingly, it’s a game that FPI has the Tar Heels winning very easily.
A MEAC school, NC Central has been at the FCS level since 2011. Since 2019, the team has been coached by Trei Oliver . In the past couple of seasons, he’s found a ton of success. In 2022, NC Central won the Celebration Bowl, beating Deion Sanders and Jackson State . He then followed that up with a trip to the FCS playoffs in 2023. So, the Eagles aren’t an easy FCS opponent.
Sep. 21: North Carolina vs. James Madison — 62% chance of win
Since James Madison made the jump to FBS in 2022, the Dukes have immediately found plenty of success, going 19-5 in their first two seasons. Now, head coach Curt Cignetti is gone, having been replaced by Bob Chesney . After an incredibly successful run at Holy Cross , he’s making his own jump to the FBS ranks.
That means that, as of now, both teams have questions to answer. Still, North Carolina should have more talent overall and FPI favors them to win this game. It’s not by a massive margin, though, only giving the Tar Heels a 62 percent chance.
Sep. 28: North Carolina at Duke — 54.8% chance of win
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North Carolina opens up ACC play with a road trip to rival Duke. The Blue Devil are going through a coaching change of their own and, with that, the team is going to be an interesting one to try and project. For now, FPI has the Tar Heels as a very slight favorite to win this game.
Even though this is a road game, it’s once again a game where UNC won’t have to leave the state of North Carolina. In fact, with two more home games on the horizon, the Tar Heels have a stretch where they play six straight games in the state. That’s some helpful scheduling in a long season.
Oct. 5: North Carolina vs. Pitt — 60.7% chance of win
Sam Howell and North Carolina fell behind 17-0 in the first quarter, then rallied before losing in overtime. (Justin Berl/Getty Images)
The ACC slate continues with the Pitt Panthers taking a trip to Chapel Hill. If the Panthers can figure out their quarterback situation, which has been an issue since Kenny Pickett left, then the defense is typically good. Still, that unknown on offense is a big challenge to face.
While there’s time for things to change between now and October, North Carolina is currently projected by FPI to win this game. It’s, again, far from a situation where the Tar Heels are a clear-cut favorite. However, it’s more comfortable than either of the games before or after UNC plays Pitt.
Oct. 12: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech — 52.3% chance of win
(David J. Griffin | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Georgia Tech, having played a game in Week 0, is a team where there is actually a data point from this season. It was a good one for the Yellow Jackets too, who earned an upset win over Florida State . In particular, Georgia Tech looked excellent in the trenches.
Still, FPI has North Carolina as a slight favorite to win this game. However, the Tar Heels really are a very slight favorite to win this game. How those projections might change throughout the season as we learn more about both teams remains to be seen.
Oct. 26: North Carolina at Virginia — 66.2% chance of win
The rivalry between North Carolina and Virginia is one of the best in the ACC historically. However, the Cavaliers have struggled in recent years and many people expect them to struggle again in 2024. So, it’s not a big surprise that FPI favors UNC.
Notably, this game on October 26th is going to be the first time North Carolina leaves the state since Week 1, which is being played in August. That makes for a relatively manageable schedule that the Tar Heels should take advantage of before they get more challenging in November.
Nov. 2: North Carolina at Florida State — 26.5% chance of win
North Carolina opens the month of November with a road trip to Florida State. That should be a challenge. After all, the Seminoles are seen as a favorite to win the ACC this season after having won the conference last year. So, it’s not a surprise that FPI has UNC projected as the underdog ahead of Week 1.
Like Georgia Tech, there’s some data on Florida State already. After all, they’re who the Yellow Jackets upset. That game went poorly for the Seminoles, who want to bounce back quickly. Still, the Seminoles should still be one of the best teams in the conference.
Nov. 16: North Carolina vs. Wake Forest — 72.9% chance of win
RB Ty Chandler spurred North Carolina’s win over Wake Forest, rushing for 213 yards and four TDs. (Andrew Dye/North Carolina Athletics)
From there, North Carolina returns home to take on Wake Forest, one of the Tar Heels’ in-state rivals in Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have been a tough team in recent seasons. However, expectations are a bit lower going into the 2024 season and that’s reflected in how big a favorite UNC is according to FPI.
Teams can be completely different by November. Injuries occur, schemes change, and unknown players step up. So, there is time for the projection to change. For now, though, it’s the highest chance to win that UNC has of any ACC conference game.
The next game is North Carolina’s final road trip of the season. It’s only their fourth time leaving the state as they head to Massachusetts in late November to play Boston College. This could be an interesting game, with the weather potentially playing an impact by that time in the year. Still, FPI is giving North Carolina a better than 50 percent chance to win.
Like several teams on the schedule for UNC, Boston College is going through a coaching change. Bill O’Brien takes over this year and while he’s a very well-respected coach, there is some work to be done on this roster. So, it will be interesting to see how this team is rolling by late in the season.
Nov. 30: North Carolina vs. NC State — 46.3% chance of win
CHAPEL HILL, NC – NOVEMBER 25: Devin Carter (88) of the North Carolina State Wolfpack attempts to catch the ball over Lejond Cavazos (6) of the North Carolina Tar Heels during a football game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Nov 25, 2022 at Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC. (Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
North Carolina ends the season by returning home to play rival NC State at the end of the season. Coming into the year, the Wolfpack are ranked in the AP Preseason Poll . So, the perception is certainly high for this team.
As of now, FPI tends to agree with that preseason ranking. It’s high on NC State too, making the Tar Heels a bit of an underdog here. However, rivalries are one of the great things about this sport and in these games, anything can happen. So, this is definitely a game to be excited about moving forward.
Head coach Mack Brown is going into the sixth year of his second stint as the head coach at North Carolina. He’s consistently had good teams during his time there and if FPI is to be believed, it should be another solid season for the Tar Heels.
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