Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (58-31) and Atlanta Braves (48-39) conclude their 3-game series Sunday. First pitch from Truist Park is slated for 1:35 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves 3-2

The Phillies offense only managed 1 run on 7 hits against the Braves in a 5-1 loss Saturday. LHP Ranger Suarez suffered his 2nd loss in his last 3 starts, allowing 5 ER in 5 IP. SS Trea Turner provided the lone RBI on a single in the 3rd inning.

The Braves got a much needed win behind a brilliant performance from RHP Spencer Schwellenbach. (6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K) and the bullpen no-hit the Phillies over the final 3 innings. DH Marcell Ozuna and 2B Ozzie Albies both hit 2-run HRs.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Michael Mercado vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez

Mercado (1-0, 1.50 ERA) makes his 3rd MLB appearance and 2nd start. The 25-year-old rookie has a 0.67 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 6 IP.

• First MLB start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-4 win at the Chicago Cubs Tuesday
• Called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley on June 23

Lopez (6-2, 1.83 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 83 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 5-3 home setback against San Francisco Giants Tuesday
• 2024 home splits: 3-0, 1.40 ERA (45 IP, 8 R (7 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 7 starts
• Only start vs Phillies: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 10-5 road victory Aug 4, 2019, as a member of the Chicago White Sox

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:12 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies +152 (bet $100 to win $152) | Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-142) | Braves -1.5 (+118)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 2

Moneyline.

PASS.

The Braves (-180) will close out this series with a victory behind Lopez on Sunday afternoon. I am not interested in paying nearly 2 units though, I’ll keep my bet to the moneyline.

BET BRAVES -1.5 (+118).

Needless to say, I was shocked by the result of Saturday’s game. I thought Suarez would coast to an easy victory, instead it was Schwellenbach who looked like the veteran.

Atlanta puts its most consistent pitcher on the mound Sunday, Lopez has allowed 2 runs or fewer in his last 9 starts. In fact, Lopez has allowed more than 2 runs, just once all season. He hasn’t lost a start since May 25. The Braves are also 28-17 on the season at Truist Park.

Mercado looked solid in his first MLB start, but that was against the Cubs, not the Atlanta Braves.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-112).

I’ve got all the confidence in the world that Lopez will keep this Phillies team in check because that’s what he’s done all season long. He’s allowed a grand total of 4 ER in his last 5 starts (26 1/3 IP).

Mercado only allowed 2 hits in his first MLB start. He will not do that again on Sunday, but I’m confident he won’t get shelled.

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