Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Cleveland Guardians (61-41) and Philadelphia Phillies (64-38) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Guardians won 2 of 3 in 2023

The Guardians set out on a 5-game road trip after going 3-4 over a 7-game homestand out of the All-Star break. They just split a 4-game set with Detroit after losing 2 of 3 to San Diego. After a 2-1 win Wednesday, Cleveland was shut out 3-0 as -a -142 favorite Thursday by rival Detroit. The Guardians are 28-26 on the road this season and 50-52 against the spread (ATS).

The Phillies return home for 6 games after losing 4 of 6 on the road to start the 2nd half. Philadelphia dropped 2 of 3 at Minnesota and 2 of 3 at Pittsburgh, recently losing 5-4 as -126 favorites at the Twins Wednesday — Philly had Thursday off. Philadelphia is 37-16 at Citizens Bank Park and 53-49 ATS.

Guardians at Phillies projected starters

RHP Ben Lively vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Lively (8-6, 3.57 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 93 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 2-1 home defeat against the Padres Sunday
• 2024 road splits: 3-5, 4.27 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 10 starts
• Never faced Phillies before

Sanchez (7-5, 2.97 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 109 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 4-1 defeat at Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 6-1, 1.50 ERA (66 IP, 11 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 10 starts
• Never faced Guardians before

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Guardians at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:04 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Guardians +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Phillies -178 (bet $178 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Guardians +1.5 (-146) | Phillies -1.5 (+122)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 8 (O: -118 | U: -104)

Guardians at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Guardians 2

Moneyline

PASS .

I’ve got the Phillies (-178) winning this game but I’m staying away from that moneyline. I’m not willing to pay all that juice.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+ 122 ).

Neither team is playing particularly great at the moment, but I like the Phillies to take care of business at home. Lively had a great start to the season, but he’s had a tough stretch as we hit the summer months, going 1-3 with a 4.82 ERA (28 IP, 15 ER) over his last 5 starts. Meanwhile, Sanchez is a perfect 4-0 with a 0.93 ERA (29 IP, 3 ER) in his last 4 home starts.

Philadelphia is also the highest scoring team at home on the season at 5.37 runs per game, per Teamrankings.com. They hit .263 as a team and have a 3.31 team ERA at Citizens Bank.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (- 104 ).

Despite losing 3 of his last 5 starts, Lively has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Under has hit in his last 2 starts.

Sanchez has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts — and in 9 of his last 11 starts. So, it’s no surprise the Under cashed in 4 of his last 5 outings.

The Under is 8-2 in the Guardians’ last 10 games, while the Phillies are 2-3 O/U in their last 5.

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