Braves Have a Legitimate Chance to Chase Down Philly for the NL East

The Atlanta Braves entered this season as not only the favorite to win the NL East for a seventh consecutive year, but also as the favorites to win the World Series.

But injuries and underperformance took their toll on an offense that led all of baseball in runs last season, tying the single-season homer record and finishing as the first team with a group slugging percentage over .500. The Philadelphia Phillies have been in first place for 77 days and saw their lead grow as large as ten games. Exiting the All-Star Break, early stumbles against the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds had Atlanta not only 9.5 back on Philly but also briefly in third place after the New York Mets won the first two games of a four-game series between the two teams.

Oh, how a week can change things.

After dropping the first two against New York, Atlanta's ripped off a 6-1 stretch, scoring 36 runs and launching a MLB-best 19 homers. That streak coincides with a Philly slump - already without a series win since the All-Star Break, the Phillies have gone 2-8 in their last ten games, scoring under four runs per contest while being swept by the New York Yankees.

The two streaks have combined to lower Philly's lead in the NL East to only five games, the lowest it has been since May 19th. Can Atlanta chase down the Phillies?

Betting markets don't think so

In the August 1st betting line update, BetOnline made Philadelphia a bigger favorite despite their losing month, moving them to 2/9. President Jimmy Shapiro referenced New York's surge and brief possession of second place to Braves Today as reason to boost Philly, with increased competition from the Mets potentially making Atlanta's chase tougher. New York moved from 50/1 to 25/1 after their 17-10 month, while Atlanta sits at 7/2.

The schedule would seem to say otherwise

But looking at the schedule for both Atlanta and Philadelphia, it stands to believe that the Braves could make up more ground in August. The Phillies, who lost the first game of their West Coast swing last night to the Seattle Mariners, have two more in T-Mobile Park before heading to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers and then Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks. All three teams are either currently in or just barely outside of the playoff picture right now; if the season were to end today, both Los Angeles (NL #1 seed) and Arizona (NL #5 seed) would be in the postseason and Seattle would be one of the first two teams barely out in the American League wild-card race, despite being tied with the Houston Astros for the AL West lead.

Atlanta, however, is looking to clinch the four-game series tonight against Miami Marlins in the third matchup of the weekend between the two teams before facing the Milwaukee Brewers, who they beat 2-1 in a series last week, the Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants, and Los Angeles Angels. Both Colorado and Los Angeles are well below .500, while the Giants are in 4th place in the NL West and four games out of a Wild Card spot in a crowded National League.

UPDATE: Per Tankathon , Philly's remaining strength of schedule is .502, the 15th hardest in MLB. Atlanta's is .489, only 23rd.

Philly couldn't put away Atlanta even with all the advantages

The Phillies, for as good as they've been this season, haven't had a lot of success against the Braves. In their six matchups against Atlanta, coming in the season's Opening Week at home and then in Truist Park in early July, Philly's just 2-4 against the Braves. Atlanta's not only outscored them, the Braves have doubled up their run total - Philly's been held to just 21 runs in those six games, while Atlanta's scored 42.

In those contests, Atlanta's batted .285 with 14 homers and a .898 OPS, while the Phillies have managed just a .241 with a .646 OPS, striking out more than they had hits (56 strikeouts to 49 hits).

The first reaction from Philly fans has been that the second series in Atlanta was without the key offensive trio of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto, explaining that the August rematches will lead to different results.

But it's important to remember that for all the injuries that Philly fans insist they've had to deal with, Atlanta's had it worse. Philadelphia has lost 676 games to injury this season, per the Baseball Prospectus IL Ledger , while the Braves aren't that much farther ahead with 748 games lost.

But not all injuries are equal, both in severity and in who is injured.

Of Philly's most prominent injuries, most of them have occurred to the offense. Trea Turner missed 44 days to a hamstring strain, while Realmuto missed 40 after a knee procedure and both Schwarber (groin strain) and Harper (hamstring strain) missed 11 days. Outside of those four, most Philly position player injuries have been to backups or role players: 60 days to backup catcher Rafael Marchán, 28 to infield backup Kody Clemons, and 12 to outfielder Brandon Marsh.

For the rotation, Philly's lost Taijuan Walker to 73 days (combined) thanks to shoulder and finger injuries and Ranger Suárez for ten days (and counting with a back issue), with the rest of the injuries being to relievers or depth starters. Four Philly pitchers have each made 20 or more starts this season and the team has used just ten different starters this season.

Atlanta's injuries, however, have been significantly more impactful. All-Star catcher Sean Murphy was injured in his first at-bat against Philly in the season opener and missed 58 days. Reigning MVP Ronald Acuña Jr was lost for the season in late May with an ACL tear, while 2022 Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II was felled in mid June by a hamstring strain, one that will keep him out for at least a few more weeks. Second baseman Ozzie Albies is on the injured list for a second time this season, currently with a broken wrist, and isn't due back until mid-September. His combined 22 days on the IL will be closer to 60 by the time he returns.

(None of this counts Austin Riley, who strained an oblique but was held out of games for two weeks while it healed rather than being placed on the IL.)

But opposite of Philadelphia, Atlanta's also taken severe hits to their rotation. The Braves lost reigning MLB strikeout leader Spencer Strider for the season to elbow surgery after just two starts, and fellow starter Max Fried joined him on the injured list in mid-July. The injuries to both starters as well as several depth options, from top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver (oblique) and Hurston Waldrep (elbow) to spot starter Ray Kerr (Tommy John) has required Atlanta to use thirteen different starters. Only two pitchers have made twenty starts for the Braves this season, the veteran duo of Chris Sale and Charlie Morton.

And yet, Philly still couldn't put the Braves away.

The real decider, however, will be the head-to-head

So, they'll have to decide it on the field.

The Braves and Phillies play seven games across the next month, with the teams meeting in Truist Park for three games from August 20th-22nd and then Atlanta heading to Citizens Bank Park for four from August 29th through September 1st.

Does Philly even have a lead at that point? And if they do, can they handle their business against Atlanta?

Prior history says no.