2024 monsoon season has been wetter than expected. What can Arizona expect in August?

Arizona has had a wetter monsoon season than meteorologists expected for the summer, but some areas have remained dry.

This year's monsoon season was predicted to be even drier than 2023's historically dry season, but much of the state has been close to or above normal rainfall through July, National Weather Service officials said.

A number of cities have seen below-normal rainfall as storms affect some areas more than others — an expected pattern for the season, Valerie Meola, a Flagstaff meteorologist, said.

Here's a look at how this season compares to the past and what Arizonans can expect moving forward.

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How has the 2024 monsoon season compared with its forecast?

In May, the National Weather Service forecast below-normal dryness in the Phoenix and Flagstaff areas, while Tucson did not show dry intensity. So far this season, many cities have been wetter than expected.

Between June 15 and July 21, Phoenix has seen 0.39 inch of rainfall, weather service meteorologist Isaac Smith said. This is already more than the 0.15 inch Phoenix saw in 2023, putting the 2024 season closer to normal than the previous year.

The level of rainfall has been greater than the weather service expected going into June, Smith said.

Tucson was doing better than expected for the season, meteorologist Aaron Hardin said. The original forecast for the area showed below-average precipitation this season, but so far most areas have seen normal or above-normal rainfall, Hardin noted.

Flagstaff was expected to be abnormally dry, based on weather service predictions from May, but has seen normal rainfall in many areas so far this season, according to Meola.

How does this monsoon compare with average conditions?

Cities across Arizona have had varied levels of rainfall compared to normal, with many seeing above normal rain and some remaining below normal through July.

While Phoenix has already passed the total amount of rainfall in the area in 2023, it is still falling below normal levels, Smith said. The average rainfall through July 21 was 0.56 inch, Smith noted, compared with the current 0.39 inch of rain the area has seen.

Most cities in the Tucson area have seen above-normal rainfall, Hardin said, including Sierra Vista and Willcox. So far, Tucson has seen 0.5 inch above normal and Sierra Vista has seen 1.25 inches above normal, Hardin noted.

Nogales was below normal by about .4 inch and Safford was around one inch below normal, Hardin said.

The amount of rainfall around Flagstaff has varied between cities, Meola said. Cities that have seen above-normal rainfall included Window Rock, Blue Ridge Ranger District and Payson, Meola noted.

Heber-Overgaard, Show Low, Cottonwood and Clarkdale were below normal rainfall as of July 22, Meola said.

What is expected for August?

The forecasts for Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff all show a shift toward drier conditions, weather service officials said. However, as the beginning of the season has shown, there is still potential for normal or even above-normal rainfall, Hardin noted.

Although it is hard to predict exactly what the area will see, the Climate Prediction Center showed a tilt towards drier than normal conditions in Phoenix in August, Smith said. The potential for normal or above normal conditions is low but still possible, he noted.

In Tucson, forecasts leaned towards a dry August with a 35% to 45% chance of below-normal conditions, Hardin said. However, if activity continues in its current pattern, the area will likely be at or above normal, he said.

Flagstaff is also expected to dry out and warm up through August, September and October, Meola said.