Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (62-34) and Pittsburgh Pirates (48-48) return from the All-Star break to open a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from PNC Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

Philadelphia was overwhelmed 18-3 by the Oakland Athletics Sunday while failing to cover as a -229 home favorite. The Phillies lost 2 of their last 3 games and have allowed at least 6 runs in 4 of their last 5 losses, the lone outlier being a 5-1 loss vs. Atlanta.

Pittsburgh beat the Chicago White Sox 9-4 Sunday while covering as a -152 road favorite. The Pirates won 4 straight going into the break and have eclipsed the 6-run mark in back-to-back outings.

Phillies at Pirates projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Martin Perez

Nola (11-4, 3.38 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 119 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in a 5-1 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 11
• Career vs. Pittsburgh: 4-3, 3.98 ERA (54 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 9 starts

Perez (1-5, 5.15 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 73 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 5 K in a 9-0 loss at Milwaukee Brewers on July 10
• Career vs. Philadelphia: 4-1, 2.96 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 9 appearances (8 starts)

Who’s going yard ? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:06 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pirates +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Pirates +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Phillies at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 3, Pirates 2

Moneyline

PASS.

I like Philadelphia to win here as a -140 favorite, but with the Pirates 7-3 in their last 10 games and the Phillies only being 5-5 over that same span, Philly is not worth the risk of betting on straight up. Bet on the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PIRATES +1.5 (-155) .

Pittsburgh has covered as an underdog in 2 of its last 3 vs. Philly and in each of its last 5 wins vs. the Phillies. The Pirates are also the hotter team entering this matchup and are 53-43 ATS this season,. They are 15-6 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-105) .

The Under has hit in 2 of Pittsburgh’s last 3 home games, including in its last game while covering as an underdog. For Philly, the Under is 3-2 in its last 5 games and has hit in back-to-back road games. The Under has also hit in 4 of the last 5 Philadelphia-Pittsburgh meetings.

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