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POLITICO
Could Florida be revived as a Democratic battleground state? Tuesday's primaries will give us a clue.
By By Madison Fernandez and Kimberly Leonard,
5 hours ago
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is not only in a race to keep his seat but also to try to get a promotion to GOP leader. Francis Chung/POLITICO
Democrats in Florida have long dreamed of putting their state back in play. Tuesday’s primaries could help decide if that’s even a possibility.
The Senate seat, held by Republican Rick Scott, is not as high of a priority for Democrats compared to races for the upper chamber in Montana and Ohio. But should former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell claim the Democratic nomination, as she’s favored to, some Democrats are emboldened that they stand at least a chance in a state where they have struggled recently statewide.
A handful of battleground House races are also taking place in Florida: one currently held by a Democrat, Rep. Darren Soto, and two held by Republicans, Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and María Elvira Salazar.
And one of the top races to watch isn’t even a swing seat. Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, a rabble-rouser who orchestrated the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, faces a primary challenge. A win for Gaetz, who has downplayed the seriousness of his primary foe , would be a blow to McCarthy’s revenge tour to take down the Republicans who crossed him.
Primaries are also taking place in Alaska — where Republicans have their sights set on Rep. Mary Peltola, one of the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle — and Wyoming, where longtime Republican Sen. John Barrasso faces nominal primary challengers.
Here’s what to watch on Tuesday:
— AK-AL: Alaska’s unique primary system takes much of the intrigue out of Tuesday’s election, though both sides are jockeying to lay the groundwork for the high-stakes general election.
Alaska has a nonpartisan top-four primary, where the top four vote-getters, regardless of party, proceed to the general election. In November, a winner is decided with ranked choice voting, in which voters rank candidates in order of preference instead of just picking one. If no candidate receives a majority of first-place votes, the remaining ballots are reallocated from the lowest-performing finishers to second or third choices until one hopeful secures more than half the vote.
Some Republicans attributed their loss in the midterms to the voting system , which was used for the first time that cycle. Critics of ranked choice voting argued that the system is confusing and that Republicans would have had success if it weren’t for voters deciding between Republicans Nick Begich and former Gov. Sarah Palin, who came up short in the final round of voting against Peltola.
Begich is back for another try, but national Republicans — including former President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson — have coalesced around Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom. Begich has picked up some grassroots support , has a slight fundraising advantage and benefits from name ID from his previous run (as well as coming from a well-known family in Alaska politics). He also has the backing of the House Freedom Fund, the conservative Freedom Caucus’ political arm.
Along with Peltola, both Begich and Dahlstrom are favored to make it to the general election. Begich has said he’ll drop out of the race if he finishes behind Dahlstrom to avoid splitting the Republican vote in the general election. Dahlstrom has not made the same commitment.
Democrats, meanwhile, are working to make sure another Republican clinches the fourth spot in the hopes it’ll ultimately boost Peltola in November. Vote Alaska Before Party, a group with ties to Democrats , has dropped more than $1 million elevating Dahlstrom, Begich and Gerald Heikes, a frequent and little-known Republican candidate. One other Democrat and a handful of other candidates are also on the ballot.
Peltola is one of five House Democrats representing a seat that the former president claimed in 2020, when Trump won Alaska by 10 points.
Polls start to close at midnight Eastern, with the latest closing at 1 a.m. Eastern.
— FL-Sen: Scott is not only in a race to keep his seat but also to try to get a promotion to GOP leader. Tuesday’s Democratic primary will decide which politician has a shot at getting in the way of both possibilities.
Mucarsel-Powell is favored in the primary. She’s leading in fundraising and has the support of national Democrats, including President Joe Biden , who made his preference known during a campaign stop in Tampa in April when he was still the presumptive presidential nominee.
Mucarsel-Powell has focused on going after Scott rather than Democratic opponents, including underdog Stanley Campbell, a tech entrepreneur who has won some union support.
Scott also has focused most of his criticisms on Mucarsel-Powell, though on Tuesday he faces a primary challenge from Republican Keith Gross, an attorney who previously ran as a Democrat in Georgia’s state House.
— FL-01: Trying to unseat Gaetz is a big part of McCarthy’s revenge tour, given that the four-term firebrand led the charge to get him ousted from his dream job. But it looks like Gaetz will survive .
Still, McCarthy-aligned spending has been one of the main reasons it’s become the most expensive congressional primary in Florida this cycle, with more than $5.1 million spent between Gaetz and his opponents. GOP challenger Aaron Dimmock, a Navy veteran, faces long odds in trying to unseat Gaetz.
The incumbent has blasted Dimmock as a carpetbagger because he continues to work for the state of Missouri . Gaetz faced scrutiny following leaked allegations that he paid to have sex with a 17-year-old girl and paid for her to travel with him, a charge he denies. The Department of Justice closed a sex trafficking investigation into Gaetz in February 2023, but he is still under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.
Florida Patriots PAC — a super PAC funded by the nonprofit America Fund, which also backed other outside groups spending against fellow McCarthy detractors — has blanketed the airwaves with around $3.5 million in ads highlighting Gaetz’s scandals. But that spending has tapered off in the leadup to the primary.
— FL-08: This red-leaning district is the only open seat up for grabs in Florida, after Republican Rep. Bill Posey abruptly announced his resignation right before the qualifying deadline. Mike Haridopolos, the former Florida Senate president who has the backing of Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is the heavy favorite in the Republican primary against businessperson John Hearton. Whoever wins the GOP primary Tuesday is likely heading to Congress.
— FL-09: Soto’s seat in Osceola County is the only one the National Republican Congressional Committee has targeted in Florida this cycle, though it’s likely to be a tough climb unless there’s a major drop in Democratic turnout in November. Tuesday’s primary has three Republicans facing off to try to topple Soto: Jose Castillo, a conservative activist; Thomas Chalifoux, a former school board member; and John Quiñones, a former state representative who was the first Puerto Rican Republican elected to the Florida Legislature.
— FL-13: Five Democrats are facing off for the chance to try to unseat Luna, who’s unchallenged on the Republican side, in this top target for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Leading the pack in fundraising and endorsements is Whitney Fox, a former transportation official. Another candidate, Sabrina Bousbar, was a senior adviser on health disaster preparedness and response in the Biden administration and, if elected, would be the first female Gen Z member of Congress.
— FL-27: The only other seat the DCCC has targeted in Florida is that of Salazar, a former longtime TV host whose district is highly competitive and majority Hispanic. Opponents have already dinged Salazar over touting certain spending bills she opposed. Two Democrats are in the primary: Lucia Báez-Geller, a progressive Miami-Dade school board member; and Mike Davey, the more centrist former mayor of Key Biscayne.
Most polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, with the latest closing at 8 p.m. Eastern.
— WY-Sen: Barrasso, the No. 3 Senate Republican, is at little risk of being unseated by one of his primary challengers. But he’s not taking any chances.
Barrasso, who has been in office since 2007, has far outspent his opponents, including putting more than $300,000 into advertising, per AdImpact. And he’s not without reinforcements: Trump endorsed him, and High Plains PAC, a pro-Barrasso outside group, has spent close to $400,000 on ads in the leadup to the primary.
Reid Rasner, a financial adviser who contributed more than $1 million to his own campaign, could have posed the most serious threat. But he has failed to gain much traction and has drew the ire of local Republicans — including Rep. Harriet Hageman — for implying they are supporting him.
Barrasso has faced primary competition before, and easily fended those challengers off.
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