New York Mets at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

The New York Mets (52-48) take on the New York Yankees (60-43) Wednesday in the finale of a 2-game set at Yankee Stadium at 7:05 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-0

The Mets have won 3 of 4 after taking Tuesday’s game 3-2. They are crazy hot right now at 7-3 over their last 10 games. 2B Jeff McNeil, who is having a forgettable season, hitting .225, is 6-for-15 (.400) with 4 homers and 8 RBIs in the 5 games since the All-Star break. His 2-run HR in the 6th was basically the difference Tuesday.

Conversely, the Yankees have lost 3 of 4 as their offense has been inconsistent. Their run outputs since the All-Star break are: 6, 1, 4, 9 and 2. OF Aaron Judge (.309, 35 HR, 89 RBIs) isn’t the problem — BetMGM Sportsbook has him as the frontrunner for AL MVP at -400 odds (Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson and Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr. are next at -600 each). Judge is hitting .342 with 7 homers and 19 RBIs over the last 30 days (23 games).

Mets at Yankees projected starters

LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Manaea (6-4, 3.73 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 101 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 6-4 defeat at Miami Marlins Friday
• 2024 vs. Yankees: 1 home start, win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 5 BB, 3 K in 12-2 rout June 26
• Last 5 starts vs. Yankees: 1-2, 4.21 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 31 K

Cole (3-1, 4.60 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 29 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 6-1 home victory vs. Tampa Bay Rays Friday
• 2024 vs. Mets: 1 road start, loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 0 K in 9-7 setback June 25 — was Cole’s 2nd outing of season
• Last 5 starts vs. Mets: 1-1, 8.49 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.93 WHIP, 23 K

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mets at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:41 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-140) | Yankees -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Mets at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Mets 3

Cole’s numbers against the Mets are damning, but I pay more attention to his last 2 starts July 19 against the Rays and July 12 against the Orioles. He combined for 12 IP, 2 ER (1.50 ERA), 11 H, 2 BB and 15 K. That’s more like Cole than the bad numbers against the Mets.

There is no scenario that I see the Mets sweeping the season series against the Yanks. That said, I’m not touching the Yankees’ -175 ML with a 10-foot pole.

Instead, I’ll take GERRIT COLE UNDER 18.5 OUTS (-155). It may be close as he has gone 6 innings in each of his last 2 starts. He hasn’t gone more than that in any start this year — nor has he done so in his last 5 starts against the Mets.

I’m not a fan of the Yankees only bringing back +115 on a RL bet, either. Considering Cole’s shaky past against the Mets and their recent surge, I’ll look elsewhere.

I’m going with AARON JUDGE OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+100). Judge is 6-for-13 (.462) with 2 homers lifetime against Manaea. He has 23 hits (.311 BA) against lefties this season, and more than half (13) have gone for extra bases.

We’re expecting a 77-degree evening with straight-line winds from right to left at 6 mph. Each team is 5-5 O/U in their last 10. The Over is just 1-4 in the last 5 head-to-head meetings at Yankee Stadium.

I’ll take UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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