Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

The Cincinnati Reds (38-43) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (41-39) Friday in the 2nd game of a 4-game set at Busch Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Reds smoked the Cardinals with an 11-4 victory Thursday. They scored in each of the first 5 innings as Cardinals SP Miles Mikolas allowed a career-high 10 runs, 9 of them earned. Reds SS Elly De La Cruz had 3 hits, and 2B Jonathan India extended his hitting streak to 9 games with his 6th consecutive multi-hit performance as the Reds snapped a 2-game slide.

Reds SP Andrew Abbott wasn’t great, walking 6, but he only gave up 2 hits and received enough run support to earn the win as he managed to allow just 2 earned runs in 5 innings.

The Cardinals, who lost Wednesday vs. the Atlanta Braves, have won 5 of 7. They finished with 7 hits Thursday and added 2 garbage-time runs in the 8th inning. A good sign for St. Louis was 3B Nolan Arenado went yard for the first time since June 5.

Reds at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Frankie Montas vs. RHP Andre Pallante

Montas (3-5, 4.48 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 66 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home loss vs. Boston Red Sox
• Career vs. Cardinals: 0-1, 9.00 ERA (9 IP, 9 ER), 1.78 WHIP, 7.0 K in 2 starts
• 2024 vs. Cardinals: 1 start, loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-3 home setback May 29

Pallante (3-3, 5.23 ERA) makes his 6th start and 15th appearance. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 32 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-Win, 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-5 home victory vs. San Francisco Giants June 20
• Starter/reliever splits: As a starter — 3-2, 4.76 ERA (22 IP 2/3, 12 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 5 outings vs. as a reliever — 0-1, 6.30 ERA (10 IP, 7 ER), 1.90 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 9 appearances
• Career vs. Reds: 4-0, 1.55 ERA (29 IP, 5 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 in 13 games (3 starts)
• 2024 vs. Reds: 1 start, win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-3 road victory May 29

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Reds at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:10 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Reds +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Cardinals -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-185) | Cardinals -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Reds at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 7, Reds 5

Pallante has been a bit better as a starter, but that’s not exactly hard to do. He’s the kind of pitcher that would be successful if you time machined him back to the 90’s. He touches 95 and is a groundball specialist, but the league feasts on that nowadays. The Cards will have to score 6 or more in order to take this one.

Fortunately for them, the weather conditions (see below), and the opposing starter are conducive for that. In his last 3 starts, Montas has allowed 9 ERs in 12 1/3 innings (6.57 ERA).

The Cards are 23-16 on the RL at home this season, 2nd-best record in the majors — behind the Kansas City Royals (25-18), per teamrankings.com. Each of the 4 games between the Reds and Cardinals this season have been decided by 2+ runs.

I prefer the CARDINALS -1.5 (+150) over the ML. If the ML were closer to +100, I’d lean that way, but I absolutely don’t think -130 is a wise move on the ML. I give the RL as good of a chance of an outright win, so let’s take the value.

It’s slated to be 87 degrees with a 9-mph breeze blowing out to left-center. The Over cruised to a cash Thursday, and while the Under hit in all 3 head-to-head meetings Cincinnati in May, the totals were 9+. The Cards are 7-3 O/U over their last 10.

It’s hot and humid, with a breeze blowing out. I like OVER 8.5 (-115).

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