Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (55-54) and Houston Astros (57-52) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Saturday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 1-0

Tampa Bay scored just 2 runs for a 3rd time in its last 4 games, and the Rays dropped Friday’s series opener 3-2. Tampa batters whiffed 14 times in the loss; they have logged 28 strikeouts over their last 2 games.

Astros LHP Yusei Kikuchi fanned 11 in his team debut after being traded from the Toronto Blue Jays Monday. Kikuchi had a rough start to his night, allowing a 2-run HR to Rays RF Dylan Carlson on just his 6th pitch.

Rays at Astros projected starters

RHP Zack Littell vs. RHP Ronel Blanco

Littell (4-7, 4.18 ERA) is tabbed for his 22nd start. He has logged a 1.35 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 114 IP.

• Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 4-0 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds July 27
• Career vs. Astros: 1-0, 3.60 ERA (5 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 1 start, an 8-2 road win July 30, 2023

Blanco (9-5, 2.95 ERA) is making his 21st start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 119 IP.

• Last outing: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 7-6 home win vs. Los Angeles Dodgers July 27
• Career vs. Rays: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (2 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 1 relief appearance of 8-3 road loss April 24, 2023

Who’s going yard ? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Rays at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Rays +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Rays at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Rays 4

Moneyline

The Rays are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games against HOUSTON ( -155 ). The Astros are 14-4 across their last 19 contests at home.

Tampa Bay figures as a club that has way overplayed 3.98 runs per game and 4.43 RPG allowed; Houston’s scoring profile (4.63-4.20) is likely worth of a couple more wins.

Littell has been running into more bats of late and is facing a high-contact Houston lineup. The 28-year-old has yielded an .806 OPS on the road in his career. He’s thrown a combined 198 pitches over his last 2 starts. That’s an uncharacteristic number for Littell, and earlier-season comps in such situations are not favorable.

Blanco typically performs well at Minute Maid. He’s allowed a mere .640 OPS over 23 career home games.

BACK THE ASTROS ( -155 ).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS : Better leverage can be found on the ML.

Over/Under

The total has gone Over in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games on the road.

The Rays offense has some indicators leaning toward a bit of bad luck overall this season (a .279 batting average on balls in play with runners in scoring position has not helped). Some recency bias against the Houston offense (15 runs over last 5 games) is influenced by some poor RISP showings.

BACK THE OVER 8 ( -105 ).

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