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Deseret News
Will Utah make the College Football Playoff? Can BYU reach the postseason? Bowl projections for the new Big 12
By Brandon Judd,
7 hours ago
Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham and Utah Utes QB Cameron Rising (7) listen to a official as Utah and Penn State play in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, on Monday, Jan. 2, 2023. | Scott G Winterton, Deseret News
Last year, the Big 12 had nine teams qualify for the postseason.
With four new teams — Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado — joining the league as Texas and Oklahoma head to the SEC, how does the postseason outlook shape up for the conference heading into the 2024 season?
Could the Big 12 hit double-digits in terms of the number of bowl eligible-teams this season? And how will the Big 12 factor into the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff?
Here’s a look at three bowl projections from national outlets released in the past month, as well as a fourth from The Athletic that projects the field for the new 12-team playoff.
Independence Bowl: Iowa State vs. Washington State
Sun Bowl: Colorado vs. NC State
Texas Bowl: Kansas vs. Missouri
First Responder Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Navy
College Football Playoff quarterfinals, Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Utah vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
Bill Bender has 11 of the Big 12′s 16 teams making the postseason in this scenario, though BYU isn’t among them. Three of the league’s newcomers — Utah, Arizona and Colorado — all are projected to play in the bowl season.
12-team playoff predictions
Georgia
Ohio State
Utah
Florida State
Texas
Notre Dame
Oregon
Alabama
Clemson
Ole Miss
Michigan
Memphis
Bender has Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon and Alabama winning first-round playoff matchups, Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Notre Dame winning in the quarterfinal round, then Georgia and Ohio State moving on to the championship game.
Bender explains Utah’s playoff road when discussing the quarterfinal matchups.
“Georgia, Ohio State, Utah and Florida State earn first-round byes by virtue of winning their respective Power 4 conferences. The Bulldogs get a second matchup with the Crimson Tide, and the Buckeyes and Ducks could meet for a third time in this situation. There would be more pressure on Florida State and Utah — the ACC and Big 12 champions — against at-large teams, especially if they are from the SEC and Big Ten,” Bender wrote.
College Football Playoff quarterfinals, Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Utah vs. No. 5 Oregon
Steve Lassan has 11 Big 12 teams qualifying for the postseason in his projections, though again it doesn’t include BYU. Like 247 Sports, Athlon also has three newcomers — again Utah, Arizona and Colorado — reaching the postseason.
12-team playoff predictions
Georgia
Ohio State
Florida State
Utah
Oregon
Texas
Ole Miss
Alabama
Michigan
Penn State
Notre Dame
Liberty
Lassan has Oregon, Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama winning first-round playoff matchups, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas winning in the quarterfinal round, then Georgia and Ohio State moving on to the championship game.
College Football Playoff quarterfinals, Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 5 Oregon
Brad Crawford has the Big 12 qualifying 11 teams for the postseason in this projection. Unlike the previous two, newcomer Colorado isn’t projected for a bowl spot.
Instead, this is the only prediction where BYU is projected to make the postseason, with the Cougars locked into a matchup with Appalachian State.
BYU has played in the Boca Raton Bowl once before, beating now fellow Big 12 member UCF 49-23 in 2020 during Zach Wilson’s final game as a Cougar.
Crawford was the only writer used for this article who didn’t predict Utah would fill the Big 12 champion’s spot in the playoff.
Here’s his reasoning behind Utah’s bowl matchup: “The Utes and Tigers have never met on the gridiron, so needless to say this would be one of bowl season’s most-anticipated matchups outside of the College Football Playoff. It would also mean organizers in Orlando lobbied for both selections, high-end finishers in the Big 12 and ACC not quite good enough to be voted in the playoff. Utah is one of the trendy picks to win the Big 12, but few are taking Clemson to unseat Florida State at the top of the ACC.”
12-team playoff predictions
Ohio State
Georgia
Florida State
Kansas State
Oregon
Texas
Ole Miss
Penn State
Alabama
Miami
Notre Dame
Liberty
Crawford further explored the race for the expanded CFP in an article released Sunday , naming Utah one of the “teams to watch” even though he doesn’t have the Utes making the playoff field.
“Think Kyle Whittingham and the Utes are ready for life in the Big 12? Utah’s built for this. One of college football’s most successful programs of the decade, Utah enters in the mix as one of several preseason nationally-ranked programs in the conference with a chance at big things this fall,” Crawford wrote.
Crawford has Oregon, Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama winning first-round playoff matchups, Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon and Texas winning in the quarterfinal round, then Ohio State and Georgia moving on to the championship game.
Unlike the other projections where each bowl matchup was predicted, Bruce Feldman instead focuses on who will make the 12-team playoff field.
12-team playoff predictions
Ohio State
Georgia
Florida State
Utah
Texas
Oregon
Ole Miss
Notre Dame
Alabama
Penn State
Miami
Memphis
Feldman gives his reasoning for placing Utah at No. 4, starting with a look at offensive personnel returning.
“Last year’s Utes were gutted by injury, notably with QB Cam Rising, all-conference TE Brant Kuithe and versatile back Micah Bernard. All are back; Rising — entering his seventh season — is one of the best QBs in the country. Dorian Singer, who put up big numbers in 2022 for Arizona, has transferred in from USC. Singer’s not a burner but he has terrific ball skills and should be a good addition,” Feldman wrote.
He then explains how defense and a favorable schedule benefit Utah.
“The defense, even without stars Jonah Elliss and Cole Bishop, should still be one of the best in the Big 12. The Utes don’t play two of the Big 12′s top teams, Kansas State and Kansas — but they do visit Oklahoma State and UCF. But this very seasoned team led by Rising should handle the road well,” Feldman wrote.
Feldman doesn’t predict who will win during each round of the 12-team playoff — he just projects his 12 teams to make the field, including the four who earn first-round byes.
What stands out about Utah’s projections?
The Utes appear in the College Football Playoff in three of the four projections, and every time with a first-round bye as the Big 12 champion.
Sporting News was the lone prediction to list Utah as a No. 3, while Athlon Sports and The Athletic had the Utes as a No. 4 seed.
Utah, though, was never projected to win in its quarterfinal matchup.
In the one projection where the Utes weren’t chosen as the Big 12 team in the CFP, Kansas State instead filled that spot. Like Utah, though, Kansas State wasn’t predicted to win a game in the expanded field.
What stands out about BYU’s projections?
No surprise, the outlook isn’t rosy for BYU after coming off a 5-7 season that closed with five straight losses.
The Cougars did at least earn one projection where they were predicted for a lower-level bowl matchup, even if it doesn’t come against a fellow Power 4 team.
It’s reflective of the low expectations surrounding the program heading into Year 2 in the Big 12.
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