Much as some Seattle Kraken fans might want to - much as the Kraken might want to - buying out the final three years of goalie Philipp Grubauer's contract would be bad business, and bad for reworking the roster.
The reasons why become clear with the help of number-crunching.
Grubauer 3-Season Performance Review
This is only an issue because Grubauer hasn't provided the netminding Seattle expected when he was signed to a six year, $35.4 million contract back in 2021.
That's not to say the 32-year-old native of Rosenheim, Germany hasn't had his moments in Seattle. The pinnacle came during the Kraken's 2022 playoff run.
Grubauer led a 7-game upset of the defending champion Colorado Avalanche, and almost did the same in the 2nd round to the Dallas Stars.
It's also not to say Kraken general manager Ron Francis erred in signing Grubauer to an expensive long-term deal.
Expansion teams are best constructed from the goaltender out, and "Grubi" was coming off a Vezina-finalist season with an admittedly strong Avalanche team. A 1.95 goals-against average, .922 save % and seven shutouts were numbers worth overpaying for.
If We Knew Then What We Know Now...
Given the benefit of hindsight, the combined term/AAV of the signing was a mistake. Grubauer's Seattle GAA has been depressingly consistent over three seasons: .889, .895, .899. Even during his impressive playoff run, he finished with a less-than-stellar 2.99 GAA, .903 save %.
Advanced metrics aren't kinder. Last season, among the 65 goalies who appeared in 20 or more games, Grubauer's "Goals Saved Above Expected" ranked 52nd (-5.8). (Source: Moneypuck.com )
This was on a Kraken team which emphasized defense and finished top-10 in goals against.
Grubauer Buyout Hurts More Than Helps
That's why some media sites have suggested the Kraken should literally cut their losses. Here's why they shouldn't.
$16.9 million remains on Grubauer's contract. A buyout of the final three years, according to PuckPedia.com , would cost the Kraken 67% of that total, based on his age. That comes to just under $11.3 million.
Even if the team were willing to bite the real-world dollar cost bullet, the impact to the salary cap would be significant.
As PuckPedia points out, "Buyouts are applied evenly over 2x the years remaining on the contract." That would leave the Kraken on the hook for six more years, through the 2029-30 season.
As to the amount of the cap hit, it's calculated this way: average annual value of the contract, minus the base salary, plus the annual buyout cost. Therefore, the actual cap implications of NOT having Philipp Grubauer on the roster would be...
- 2024-25: $ 978,000 ($ 4.9 million savings)
- 2025-26: $ 2.17 million ($ 3.7 million savings)
- 2026-27: $ 3.28 million ($ 2.6 million savings)
- 2027-28: $ 1.88 million
- 2028-29: $ 1.88 million
- 2029-30: $ 1.88 million
What These Numbers Mean
Technically, the Kraken would save a combined $11.3 million over the next three seasons, before a "dead cap" cost of about $5.7 million kicks in between 2027-30. "Dead" contract money obviously limits flexibility to sign other players.
Besides, that "savings" is misleading. The Kraken would still have to find and pay another goalie. The replacement netminder may or may not be better, and may or may not come cheaper.
The better alternative is to hope Grubauer improves behind a solid returning defensive corps, and what's expected to be an improved set of forwards.
If that hope isn't realized, the buyout option becomes less onerous after the 2024-25 season.
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