Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

The Minnesota Twins (46-37) and Seattle Mariners (47-38) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 4-2

The Twins won 5-1 Saturday as a slight favorite (-116) behind RHP Pablo Lopez as the Under (7) hung on. Minnesota has picked up 3 wins in the past 4 outings, while going 5-2 in the past 7 outings.

The Over has a slight 3-2 edge in the past 5 games for the Twins, while going 8-4 across the previous 12 outings.

The Mariners have won just twice in the past 6 games, while going 3-7 in the past 10 outings. The Under is on a 2-0-1 run in the previous 3 contests.

Twins at Mariners projected starters

RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Luis Castillo

Ryan (5-5, 3.31 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 98 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 5 K in 5-4 road loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
• 2024 road splits: 2-2, 2.92 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 0.99 WHIP, .219 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 8 HR, 9 BB, 50 K in 8 starts
• Career vs. Mariners: 0-3, 7.30 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.70 WHIP, 5 HR, 10.2 K/9 in 3 starts

Castillo (6-9, 3.79 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 99 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 4 K in 11-3 road setback at Tampa Bay Tuesday
• 2024 home splits: 4-3, 2.96 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.09 WHIP, .237 OBA, 6 HR, 9 BB, 55 K in 8 starts
• Career vs. Twins: 1-2, 4.99 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 30 H, 10 BB, 38 K in 6 starts
• 2024 vs. Twins: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 2 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 3-1 road setback May 6

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Twins at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:49 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Twins -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Mariners -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+155) | Mariners +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Twins at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Mariners 3

The TWINS (-110) are decent play in the series finale, as Castillo just isn’t going well for the Mariners (-110). The Seattle veteran has a 5.08 ERA across 28 1/3 IP in 5 starts in June, and he has walked 11 batters while allowing 25 hits.

The MARINERS +1.5 (-190) are a little on the pricey side, at least for a standalone wager. However, as part of a Same-Game Parlay or multi-leg parlay, tossing the Mariners into your ticket is not a bad idea.

Seattle is just 3-7 in the past 10 games, but it is a respectable 7-7 across the past 14 outings, while cashing on the run line as an underdog at a 6-3 clip in the past 9 on the run line.

Total 7 should be skipped, as I expect it to come right down on the number in this afternoon finale. If there was a lean, it would be to the Under, which was cashed in each of the 1st 2 games in this series. However, the Over is 6-3 in the past 9 games for the Twins, so it’s best to AVOID.

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