With Astros on their tail, first-place Mariners face critical trade deadline

More than any other team in baseball, the first-place Seattle Mariners may feel the heat as the season progresses. That's mainly because a recent hot streak by Houston has the Astros sitting just one game back of the AL West leaders.

The Mariners' story in 2024 is straightforward: They have terrific pitching, sometimes even historically so, paired with dismal hitting. No one in the regular lineup has an OPS above .750. They strike out too much and don't make enough contact. Consequently, their +19 run differential is the lowest among division leaders.

The Mariners resume play Friday with a season-defining series in Houston. Seattle will either leave Texas in first or having surrendered the top spot to the Astros for the first time this season.

Mariners fans have reason to be concerned after president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto gave a worrisome answer about the team's trade-deadline plans.

"We are open to doing something that has the potential to be dynamic," he told Seattle Sports 710. "Don't know if that's going to be available. Right now it's not and this is as late as we've ever gone into a deadline where I can honestly say it's not."

As of Thursday afternoon, FanGraphs gives the Mariners a 57.3% chance of making the playoffs, but their chances of winning the division are about the same as the Astros' chances. So Seattle must make defining moves at the deadline to hold off Houston.

Here are the players they could target by the trade deadline on July 30 at 6 p.m. ET.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. | OF/IF | Miami Marlins

Chisholm Jr. could be a game-changer. He can play all over the field but is primarily a center fielder and second baseman. He'd be a significant upgrade over Jorge Polanco and would instantly have the second-highest OPS on the team at .727. A trade to a contender could reignite the excitement Chisholm Jr. was once known for.

Brandon Lowe | 2B | Tampa Bay Rays

If a trade for Chisholm Jr. doesn't work out, the Mariners could pivot to Lowe. He has team options for 2025 and 2026 but could be traded amid a disappointing season for Tampa Bay. The Rays are a few building blocks away from competing in the AL East, and Lowe could return value.

Cody Bellinger | OF | Chicago Cubs

Bellinger is hitting .269/.331/.410 (107 OPS+) with nine home runs, 37 RBI and five stolen bases. He hasn't matched last season's output, but his contributions have been worth 1.1 bWAR. The downside is Bellinger was played on the 10-day IL on July 11 after suffering a fractured middle finger. Finger fractures usually heal quickly, so the Mariners may feel the risk is worth the reward.

Pete Alonso | 1B | New York Mets

The Mets might look to capitalize on the value of Alonso, who is a free agent after this season. Alonso's 19 homers would rank second on the Mariners behind Cal Raleigh's 20, and his .772 OPS would lead the Mariners.

Brent Rooker | OF | Oakland Athletics

Rooker has provided a major impact in each of his two seasons with regular at-bats. His current .942 OPS would exceed every other Mariner by nearly 200 points, and he has a .291 batting average. He brings a blend of on-base ability and power that could be huge for the Mariners.