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2024 John Deere Classic prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions
By Cameron DaSilva,
5 hours ago
The PGA Tour is in Illinois this week for the 2024 John Deere Classic, which is once again being played at TPC Deere Run in Silvis. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning, with the tournament wrapping up on Sunday afternoon.
Patrick Cantlay withdrew from the tournament on Monday after being listed as the overwhelming favorite to win. With Cantlay out, Sungjae Im is now the favorite at +1400, followed by 2023 champion Sepp Straka (+1600) and Aaron Rai (+1800). Jordan Spieth (+2000) is one of the marquee players in the field, as well.
TPC Deere Run is one of the easier courses on tour, featuring wide fairways, but penalizing rough. It’s a par 71 and 7,289 yards, but players will have plenty of birdie opportunities throughout. The winning score has been between 19-under and 27-under every year since 2010.
Im is in excellent form coming into the week, finishing top 12 in 5 of his last 7 starts. He hasn’t played this event since 2021 when he came in 47th, but he’s understandably and deservedly the favorite to win the John Deere Classic.
John Deere Classic – Top-10 picks
Aaron Rai (+175)
Rai is coming off a 2nd-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he was tied for the 54-hole lead. His putting was great and he was 4th in terms of approach play, which is a recipe for success at TPC Deere Run.
Lucas Glover (+400)
Glover is a past champion here, winning in 2021 before missing the cut in 2022 and finishing 6th last year. He’s made just 1 cut in his last 3 starts this season, but based on his course history he’s a worthwhile bet for a top-10 finish, especially with his ball-striking numbers (24th in SG: tee-to-green).
Denny McCarthy (+220)
McCarthy feels like he’s due for a win, but even if he doesn’t get it this week, he could be near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. He’s finished 6th here in back-to-back years and has 4 straight top-40 finishes this season. McCarthy is a terrific putter and an accurate driver, which are two key stats for this event.
John Deere Classic – Top-20 picks
Seamus Power (+188)
Power has 3 top-16 finishes in his last 4 starts in this event and just finished T-20 in the Travelers Championship 2 weeks ago. While inconsistent, Power has had some good finishes in his last 9 starts, coming in 27th or better 5 times in that span.
Adam Svensson (+200)
In his last 3 John Deere Classic starts, Svensson has finished 18th, 24th and 21st. He also made 11 straight cuts before missing it last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, so his play has been nothing if not steady.
Ryan Moore (+400)
Moore should not have odds this long for a top 20. He has a win, a runner-up and 3 other top-24 finishes in his last 8 starts in this event, a tournament he plays every year. If there’s ever a week to bet Moore, it’s this one.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
Neal Shipley (+250)
John Deere Classic – Matchups
Suggested play isgolfer in bold.
Denny McCarthy (+100) vs. Davis Thompson (-125)
Thompson is on a hot streak after finishing 9th and 2nd in his last 2 starts but McCarthy has a much better course history with back-to-back 6th-place finishes. At even money, McCarthy is the better bet and more consistent player.
Seamus Power (+110) vs. Keith Mitchell (-135)
Mitchell is coming off a MC in Detroit, whereas Power finished 20th 2 weeks ago at the Travelers and has 3 top-16 finishes in his last 4 starts in this event.
John Deere Classic – Top English
Aaron Rai (-135)
There are 5 Englishmen in the field this week, with Rai being the heavy favorite. The player with the next-closest odds is David Skinns, who’s +350. Rai is in great form and should contend for another win on Sunday.
John Deere Classic – First-round leader
Davis Thompson (+3500)
Thompson ranks 37th in 1st-round scoring average this season and is red hot with back-to-back top-10 finishes. He could come out firing and go low on Thursday.
Zach Johnson (+10000)
It’s a long shot, of course, but one that might have some value. Johnson plays this event every year. He’s won it once, finished runner-up 3 times and made the cut 18 of 21 years, including 15 straight. Furthermore, he’s 11th in Round 1 scoring average this year, so he’s at least playing well to open tournaments, even if he’s not finishing them near the top.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group C winner: Seamus Power (+375)
Nick Dunlap (+300), Kevin Yu (+333) and Sam Stevens (+333) have the best odds to win this group, which is a collection of relatively unproven players with high volatility. Eric Cole (+450) is the 5th player but I still like Power to emerge with the lowest score of the 5.
Winning margin: 2 shots (+350)
The winning margin has been 2 shots in 3 of the last 4 years, with the exception being J.T. Poston‘s 3-shot victory in 2022.
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