Sporting News

BMW Championship odds, predictions, best prop bets for this week's PGA Tour event

By Bill Bowman,

15 hours ago

This week’s PGA Tour’s stop, the second tournament in the FedEx Cup playoff race, will feature three numbers: 50, 30 and 6,345.

The first two numbers are easy. The 50 is the number of players who qualified for this week’s event, the BMW Championship, after all the dust settled following the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. The 30 is the number of players who will leave this week’s event and head to the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta where an even bigger paydays await.

Players will find the final number, 6,345, just as important. That number is the elevation of Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock, Colorado. Compare that to last week’s tournament at TPC Southwind in Memphis --elevation of right around 500 feet--and the golfers
will have their work cut out for them. Or rather their caddies’ workload will get a lot more of attention as they try to come up with proper yardages for their player for each and every shot.

Odds to win BMW Championship at top-rated sportsbooks

Check out odds on top contenders to win the BMW Championship at top-rated sportsbooks:

The experts at Titleist put it simply: The ball flies further in altitudes mainly due to the changes in air density, which decreases as the altitude increases.

What that all boils down to is the caddies are going to have to take a yardage, say 150 yards, and take about 10 percent off that distance (it’s a math thing that those smarter than us can explain much better) and use that as their starting number.

Then comes more math as yards will need to be added in (or subtracted) depending on if upcoming shots are uphill or downhill. It’s going to make for an interesting week as the course, which hasn’t seen PGA Tour play on it since The International way back
in 2006, gets back in the Tour spotlight. So take a deep breath this week (after all, we are at altitude, remember) and get set for the second playoff event.

Schauffele keeps contending

The big guns are atop the odds board this week with Scottie Scheffler coming in at a paltry +330. Next is Xander Schauffele at +550 and then, for some unknown reason, comes Rory McIlroy at +1000.

We’re going to take a look at Schauffele, at +550, this week. He is having one of those years he won’t soon forget. And if it wasn’t for Scheffler’s even better year, Schauffele would be a runaway pick for Player of the Year.

Well, he’s keeping that possibility alive after he finished T-2 last week at the FedEx Cup St. Jude Classic. The only problem is Scheffler finished right behind him, so he didn’t pick up that many points.

A victory this week, however, will put his name back in the mix and also give him tremendous momentum heading into the finale. His rally on Sunday when he posted a 63 in the final round shows he’s not satisfied with just winning twice--both of them majors.

Watch out if he’s anywhere near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Horschel is worth a toss this week

We’re one-for-one in picking Billy Horschel to win this year, and at +3300 this week, we like the number.

Horschel has the one win this year, the off-field Corales Puntacana Championship, which boosted him into the status of playing with the big guys once again in big tournaments.

This is one of those events he wouldn’t be in without that victory, and he’s been making the most of his opportunities. He’s played as solid as anyone over the last four events.

After missing the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open, he’s put three top-10s on the board including a T-2 at the Open Championship, a T-7 at the Wyndham Championship and a T-10 last week at the playoff opener.

Horschel's No. 20 in the FedEx Cup race heading into Colorado and knows four solid rounds this week will get him back to the Tour finale. He’s already got four good rounds out of the way with last week’s FedEx St. Jude tournament and he’s still alive.

Oh, and did we forget to remind bettors that he won the FedEx Cup crown 10 years ago?
Can Horschel win again in 2024? Stranger things have happened. A win here would likely move him into the top five heading into the finale.

We can’t wait to see that Florida Gator chomp this week if he gets the victory.

One for the longshot lovers

OK, Horschel may be a longshot at +3300, but that’s not good enough. We’re going to drop down the leaderboard a little more and check out Max Homa at +10000.

Homa obviously hasn’t had the year he’s hoped for, as he barely advanced to the top 50 and comes into this week’s tournament at 43rd. He’s going to need an impressive outing this week to get into the top 30 and advance to the Tour Championship. A victory does just that.

Homa's best finish in 2024 is a T-3 at the Masters. He has just three top-10s all year and knows he’s going to need to go low and possibly win to move on.

Around the prop scene

Check out DraftKings for a wide variety of prop bets, but here are a couple that stand out to us.

We’re going to look at Rory McIlroy to win his group at +450. McIlroy, in the group with Scheffler, Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg, is coming off a very un-Rory-like finish last week.

He was next to last in the field at +9. We’re not looking for a repeat performance, as he will look to get into better form heading into the playoff finale.

We also are going to look at Eric Cole to finish in the top 10 at +450. Cole tied Schauffele for the low score of the final round last week with a 63 that moved him into a T-18 finish. That round also helped him move up to No. 46 and into this week’s tournament.

Cole’s going to need another strong outing this week to move up to the top 30 that advance to Atlanta and the Tour Championship.