NFL teams scout college prospects in a variety of ways. They attend games, watch film, review NFL Combine results, attend Pro Days, and more. I can't speak to the inner workings of NFL franchises, but many fan-facing draft analysts attempt to provide an NFL player comparison when completing prospect analysis. For example, in this most recent draft class, you often saw Malik Nabers compared to Ja'Marr Chase or Brandon Aiyuk.
When Anthony Richardson entered the NFL, draft analysts could only make one player comp: Cam Newton. Richardson is a rare breed, and Newton is truly the only quarterback in NFL history to rival his sheer size and overall explosiveness.
Richardson came into the NFL at 6'4" and 245 pounds. Richardson noted in an interview this offseason that he's bulked up to 255 pounds, which is truly frightening for anyone who is tasked with tackling him. When you consider that he clocked a 4.43 40-yard dash and has a cannon for an arm, it becomes quite clear that we are looking at one of, if not the most physically gifted quarterback in the modern NFL and possibly NFL history.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Richardson put his athletic gifts on display last season; he regularly blew past defenders on the ground and threaded the needle on several bullet-like passes. He managed to find the endzone (on the ground) four times in four games last year.
The problem comes with the second half of the previous sentence. Richardson only appeared in four games as a rookie. His aggressive mentality as a rusher often put him in harm's way. He may have played in four games last year but only managed to complete two of them.
His above-average injury risk makes it difficult for some fantasy managers to justify spending an early-round pick on Richardson in fantasy drafts. But should you look past his injury history and scoop up Richardson this year?
Anthony Richardson Fantasy Football Outlook 2024: Can he be an elite QB despite injury risk?
Richardson features QB1 upside
If Richardson is able to stay on the field, there is no doubt that a QB1 season is within the range of outcomes.
Last season, Richardson led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback. Not even Josh Allen met his level of production in this metric. He was able to hit these levels of productivity thanks to his part in the Colts' rushing attack. In two full games last year, Richardson had 20 carries, 13 of which were designed rush attempts. This is a 17-game pace of 170 carries and 111 designed rushes, both of which would have led all quarterbacks. Rushing quarterbacks unlock a fantasy ceiling that is not achievable by traditional pocket passers.
Shane Steichen understands what he has in Richardson. His high-paced offense will heavily feature Richardson's legs, particularly in goal-to-go situations. He managed to get three goal line carries last season, despite playing only 10 quarters. Jonathan Taylor will challenge him for opportunities in this part of the field, but Steichen, formerly Philadelphia's offensive coordinator, understands the value of a quarterback like Richardson in the Red Zone.
Richardson has his fair share of skeptics regarding his capabilities as a passer, but the jury is still very much out on his arm talent. If he can simply be competent as a passer and remain dominant on the ground, he has a strong chance to finish as a top-5 QB. If both his arm and legs are firing on all cylinders, he could lead an offensive explosion in Indianapolis and finish as the QB1.
2024 PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Significant injury risk
It shouldn't come as a shock that Richardson's biggest obstacle to fantasy success is his own body. His borderline reckless play style caused issues last year, leading to Richardson being on the field for just 10 quarters across four games.
Both Richardson and Steichen have indicated that he will not be limited as a rusher in any capacity. This shouldn't come as a shock; if Richardson can't use his legs, he really doesn't offer a whole lot to the Colts' offense.
Richardson will have to keep himself out of dangerous situations to succeed in fantasy this year. It almost seemed like he was voluntarily taking on massive hits last season just to prove that he is capable of taking on enormous defenders. Richardson's mentality will have to change to ensure his long-term well-being.
Struggles as a passer
Outside of the concerns regarding his health, Richardson's other biggest obstacle is his arm. That may sound strange for a quarterback, but it's the truth. Richardson may have a cannon attached to his shoulder, but he has never been the most accurate passer.
During Richardson's season at Florida, he completed just 53.8 percent of his passes across 12 games. It didn't get much better in his first NFL season. His 59.5 completion percentage ranked 46th out of 51 quarterbacks with at least 75 attempts.
To make matters even worse, Richardson has reportedly struggled to find receivers during joint practices this offseason.
Richardson is capable of being a quality fantasy option without being a prolific passer, but he'll have to complete passes at a higher rate than nearly the worst in the NFL to be an elite fantasy option.
Ideally, the wide receivers in Indianapolis will make things easy on Richardson by getting open and giving him easy reads. Thankfully, the Colts feature a receiving corps that is quality and criminally underrated by most NFL fans. Michael Pittman Jr. is a sure-handed, do-it-all receiver, Josh Downs is a phenomenal route runner out of the slot, and Adonai Mitchell provides the big-play threat that this offense desperately needed. Richardson will have to develop a strong connection with this trio to make improvements as a passer in his sophomore season.
2024 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY
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The Verdict: How should fantasy managers approach drafting Anthony Richardson?
Cam Newton proved that this mold of quarterback can be a consistent top-5 option who can also finish as the QB1 overall in a season where everything comes together. Richardson is the revamped version Newton and could quickly establish himself as an elite option in fantasy football. At a cost of QB6, drafters should be giddy about the upside Richardson offers.
Drafting Anthony Richardson embodies the mentality of, "Upside wins championships." Each year, there is a quarterback or two who clearly presents themselves as a quarterback who can smash their ADP. Richardson is one of those clear candidates this year. Don't be the manager who's on the clock in Round 5 and takes James Conner instead of Richardson. Lean into the uncertainty and understand that you could be staring at this year's QB1.
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