As always, Jerry Jones and the Cowboys are giving the media and fans something to talk about. It started early in the offseason with Jones declaring that the motto for the 2024 season would be, "All-in." Jones seemingly has failed to live up to this motto, failing to make a splashy free agent signing, lacking aggression in the NFL draft, and not tending to the contracts of players currently on the roster.
In recent weeks, Jones' lack of commitment to star players in the form of large contracts has been plastered all over headlines. None has been more prominent than CeeDee Lamb, who has not been with the team all offseason while he holds out in hopes of receiving a new contract.
There has seemingly been little progress towards getting Lamb back in the facility in recent days. But with fantasy drafts right around the corner for many leagues, managers may need to make a decision on how to approach Lamb in drafts before this contract situation is fully resolved.
Let's review Lamb's fantasy outlook and discuss where he should be selected in upcoming drafts amid this contract dispute.
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CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Football Outlook 2024: Should contract holdout impact draft strategy?
Will wide receiver CeeDee Lamb extend his holdout into the season?
The offseason holdout is a common tactic of star players who are looking to get a big contract. Lamb isn't the only high-caliber receiver staging a holdout this offseason. Brandon Aiyuk has not practiced with the team this offseason, and Ja'Marr Chase has been "holding in" while reporting to practice but not participating.
But is it realistic that Lamb actually sits out for the 2024 season? The answer is likely no. While these offseason holdouts are common, they rarely carry into the regular season. Just last season Josh Jacobs and Chris Jones joined their teams at the buzzer to play in the regular season openers.
The last time a prominent player sat out a full season was Le'Veon Bell in 2018. This likely served as a learning opportunity for other NFL players looking to hold out; Bell didn't become the league's highest-paid RB as he had hoped, and his career soon took a turn for the worst.
The most likely outcome is that Lamb and the Cowboys come to an agreement before NFL Kickoff in a few weeks. As of now, fantasy managers should draft with the expectation that Lamb will be in uniform when Week 1 rolls around.
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CeeDee Lamb fantasy outlook 2024
It was a tale of two halves for Lamb in 2023. Despite a scalding hot start from the Cowboys' offense, Lamb underperformed and seemed destined for a pedestrian finish in fantasy. Through six weeks, Lamb was averaging 14.9 PPR which ranked 19th among receivers during this time frame.
Following the Cowboys' Week 7 bye, Lamb flipped a switch. Lamb averaged a ludicrous 28.5 PPG over an 11-game stretch to close out the regular season. This was head and shoulders above the WR2 in this span, Tyreek Hill, who averaged 22.1 PPG.
Following what may have been the best 11-game stretch in the history of fantasy football, Lamb ultimately led the league in targets, ranked 2nd in receiving yards, 1st in YAC, and 5th in yards per route run. Lamb was on the precipice of the elite WR tier before last season; he firmly entrenched himself among the league's best following his 2023 campaign.
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Lamb's success came in large part due to a massive philosophical shift in Dallas. Early in the year, the Cowboys ran a balanced offense and worked to feature Tony Pollard on the ground. After that fateful Week 7 bye, the Cowboys came out slinging the ball all over the field. They featured one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league down the stretch.
Expect to see more of the same in Dallas this year. They "addressed" the running back position by signing Ezekiel Elliot. There were also no significant changes among the pass catchers, so Lamb will be the WR1 by a wide margin once again.
Lamb was 50 yards and one touchdown away from earning the receiving triple crown last year. Given the Cowboys' pass-heavy nature, Lamb's talent, and the lack of depth behind him, it wouldn't be shocking to see Lamb win the triple crown in 2024. That should tell you everything you need to know about his outlook for 2024.
The Verdict: Where should CeeDee Lamb be drafted?
If you hold a top-3 pick and your league drafts before this situation is resolved, you aren't exactly in an enviable situation. But as we outlined earlier, there hasn't been a significant holdout that spilled over into the regular season since 2018. Lamb likely won't be the one to break that trend.
Managers should draft with the mindset that CeeDee Lamb will be available for Week 1, regardless of the current situation with his contract. Given his production last year, this would make Lamb a shoo-in as a top-3 pick. If you're drafting somewhere between picks four and six and people let him slip to you, say thank you and scoop him up as quickly as you can.
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