Many fantasy football drafters focus on running backs in the first round, but if you are interested in rostering either Justin Jefferson or Amon-Ra St. Brown this season, not only will they be gone by the time the second round begins, but they may not even be available in the second half of the first round, especially if your league utilizes three WR roster slots instead of just two.
This year, there appears to be a clear top-3 for RBs and a clear top-6 for WRs. There can always be surprises, but Jefferson and St. Brown are both in that top-6, and in fact, Jefferson is currently being drafted No. 7 overall and St. Brown is being drafted No. 8 overall (WRs 4 and 5), according to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data.
Both of these wide receivers are in the NFC North, but the similarities between these two offenses might end right there. Both have immense talent and have proven in the past that they are capable of carrying fantasy teams on any given week. But there are definitely some differences to explore to help decide who the better WR1 pick would be for fantasy drafters.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Should you draft Justin Jefferson or Amon-Ra St. Brown at WR in PPR fantasy football drafts?
Fantasy Football outlook for Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson was the fifth wide receiver drafted in 2020, and he channeled his anger into a monster rookie season as he racked up 88 catches, 1,400 yards, and seven touchdowns. Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Jalen Reagor were all selected before him, and while Lamb has been great for Dallas (contract holdout aside), Ruggs is out of the league after a DUI in a fatal crash, Reagor is on his third team in four years, and Denver traded Jeudy to the Browns after four underwhelming seasons.
But the chip on his shoulder didn't just magically disappear. His numbers continued to increase over the next two seasons - 108/1,616/10 in 2021 and 128/1,809/8 in 2022. His massive 2022 numbers led to him not only becoming a first team All-Pro for the first time, but he was also named Offensive Player of the Year.
And Jefferson was on pace for an even bigger 2023 early in the season. He went on an absolute tear and averaged 135 yards per game, at just under a 17 yards per catch clip over the first four games of the season. But his fantasy managers' worst nightmares became a reality when he went down with grade 2 hamstring strain in Week 5. It was bad enough where Jefferson landed on the IR. He returned in Week 14, but had to exit that contest early with a chest injury. Thankfully he was back for Week 15, but by then, Kirk Cousins was already out with his Achilles injury. Considering it was Nick Mullens under center, Jefferson still finished the season strong, including a massive game in the playoffs with 12 catches, 191 yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort against the Lions.
2024 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
Justin Jefferson should be at full health to start the season to try and pick up where he left off, but there's one major wrinkle this year. Throughout his career, outside of those final few games last year, it's been Cousins slinging the ball to Jefferson. Cousins is now in Atlanta, while the Vikings brought in Sam Darnold and drafted J.J. McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 draft. It was thought that Darnold would start the season, but McCarthy would likely take over at some point this season. But now McCarthy is out for the year with a knee injury, so as of now, Darnold is the guy in Minnesota.
On the positive side, Jefferson will dominate targets yet again. Jordan Addison made some strides in his sophomore campaign, but while he's not expected to miss much, if any time, he's currently hobbled with an ankle injury, and there is a slight possibility he could still see league discipline for an off-the-field incident (but it could also be pushed off until 2025). T.J. Hockenson is the other significant piece of the passing offense, but he's currently still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in December. He's definitely going to miss multiple games, but the timeline isn't fully clear as it can be as little as a few games or he could be out until after the Vikings' bye in Week 6.
Outside of dominating targets, those interested in drafting Jefferson can lean on the fact that he may be simply "quarterback-proof". In four games without Cousins last year, Jefferson cleared 150 receiving yards twice. His talent may be great enough to overcome a step down in quarterback play and he could still thrive with Darnold under center.
Fantasy Football outlook for Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown may not have made as big of an immediate impact as Jefferson, but not many have. St. Brown was certainly no slouch in his own right as he totaled 90 catches, 912 yards, and five touchdowns as a rookie. St. Brown made some additional strides in his sophomore campaign as he improved to a line of 106/1,161/6. But then he made the leap last year.
The Lions' offense as a whole looked unstoppable at times last year. Sam LaPorta had a historic debut season for a rookie tight end, and the addition of the electric Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield, meant that defenses couldn't afford to roll too much coverage to St. Brown. To say he took advantage of the situation is an understatement as he racked up 119 catches, 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns, garnering a place on All-Pro first team for the first time.
2024 PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
So what's new in 2024 for the Lions' offense? Not a whole heck of a lot, and that's a good thing for St. Brown. Detroit should boast one of the leagues best offensive lines yet again, Jared Goff is back as the quarterback, the primary skill players are all back, and if Jameson Williams can improve his game with his downfield speed, it could open things up even more St. Brown, which is a scary thought.
The Verdict: Which wide receiver should you draft?
You really can't go wrong with either of these players, but if you're on the clock and are staring at both guys, there's still a decision to be made. Jefferson's injuries from 2023, shouldn't be a factor, and St. Brown is at full health as well, so it's a draw there.
Justin Jefferson has shown a higher ceiling so far in his career, and he's also shown the ability to overcome sub-optimal personnel issues, whether it was Cousins going down last year or not having many weapons beside him to take away some attention. Jefferson probably has a slight edge in the talent department.
But St. Brown definitely has the advantage of playing in a better offense. With so much continuity on the Lions' offense, it's hard to imagine St. Brown regressing at all. In fact, there could be some room for growth despite last season's gaudy numbers. But I'm pretty sure fantasy managers would be just fine with a repeat of his 2023.
2024 FANTASY AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
When you compare that situation to what's going on in Minnesota with Sam Darnold under center, despite Jefferson's immense talent, we're giving the edge to St. Brown. We have St. brown as our WR3 and overall No. 4, while Jefferson is our WR5 and overall No. 6. And if you're picking at the end of Round 1 and either of these players are there, don't waste any time in hitting that Draft button.
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