How Big Ten, SEC strength of schedule imbalance will dictate 2024 College Football Playoff

Chances are you've heard Florida has a tough schedule in 2024.

It's become a launch point for what will be one of the leading debates – check that – the defining debate heading into the first 12-team College Football Playoff race in 2024.

The nature of strength-of-schedule between, within and outside the Power 4 conferences is going to get heated more than ever. It's a little more complicated than, "They ain't played nobody."

Or is it? The Week 1 opener between Florida and Miami – in-state rivals that meet for the first time since 2019 – is a great barometer for that debate.

The Gators' regular-season schedule includes eight teams ranked in the Preseason Top 25 – including four teams ranked in the top 10. Florida faces that challenge in the 16-team SEC that added Texas and Oklahoma. Miami, meanwhile, plays one team ranked in the AP Preseason Top 25 – an Oct. 26 matchup against Florida State. The Gators play the Seminoles, too.

Those are the gaps Sporting News found when we looked at the schedule for 68 schools – the Power 4 schools and Notre Dame – after the release of the AP Preseason Top 25.

We gave one point for each Top 25 team. We also added two points for each team inside the top 10.

MORE: Sporting News 2024 preseason All-America team

Schedule imbalance between conferences

The separation between the Big Ten and SEC and the ACC and Big 12 is obvious in the Preseason AP Top 25.

The Big Ten and the SEC combined for 60% of the teams in the AP Top 25. Why would they expect anything less than 60% of the playoff berths in the 12-team College Football Playoff? Seven of 12 berths comes to 58.3%, for what it’s worth. What is stopping the Big Ten and SEC wanting more when they will lean on that strength of schedule argument? As former CFP executive director Bill Hancock used to say all the time, "It has to come down to who you play."

Which brings us to the actual schedules. In our rankings, a total of 16 schools scored 10 points or higher – meaning they have the toughest schedules. That included eight Big Ten schools and seven SEC schools. Five of those schools – No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 9 Michigan, No. 16 Oklahoma and No. 23 USC – were ranked.

Just one ACC school – Georgia Tech –  had a schedule that scored with 10 or more points if the College Football Playoff selection committee looks at the amount of ranked teams each team plays during the regular season. The polls obviously will shift during the regular season, but that is a trend to monitor.

That suggests it might be more difficult for the ACC and Big 12 to get an at-large bid on a regular basis. ]

MORE: Sporting News Preseason Top 25 | Composite preseason Top 25

Schedule imbalance within the SEC, Big Ten

This is the most interesting layer to the argument. The Big Ten expanded to 18 teams, and the SEC expanded to 16 teams. One, perhaps unintended consequence, is the imbalance in conference scheduling, at least to start the season.

Purdue plays four top-10 teams this season. Rutgers faces only one top 25 team (No. 23 USC). So does Iowa. By eliminating divisions, the Big Ten schedule has become a crapshoot of sorts outside the protected rivalries. Penn State and Iowa will benefit from that. Michigan and USC will not.

Same goes for the SEC. Missouri and Ole Miss have the lightest schedules in the conference – with three ranked teams and one top-10 opponent apiece. After Florida's insane gauntlet, Mississippi State and Oklahoma face six ranked teams and three top-10 opponents apiece.

This is where the 10-2 vs. 9-3 argument could get dicey for those last few spots. Would a 10-2 Penn State team deserve to get in over a 9-3 Michigan team? The Nittany Lions and Wolverines are no longer in the same division and do not play this season. Now, cross that argument over. Would a 9-3 Tennessee team deserve to get in over a 10-2 Iowa team knowing the differentiation in the strength of schedule? In November, this is going to be the most-talked about subject in college football.

Those at-large bids are the college football version of the bubble in March Madness, and a 9-3 team will have a compelling case against a 10-2 team, regardless of what the division standings say. Will the committee honor that strength of schedule or simply take the team with the better record? With the exception of a 13-0 Florida State last season, we know what the precedent is.

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Schedule imbalance with the Group of 5

This is yet another layer that will be scrutinized for the next few years. The Group of 5 – which consists of the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference and Sun Belt – is guaranteed one CFP berth as a result of the 5/7 model that includes the five highest-ranked conference champions. This was a 6/6 model before the death of the Pac-12.

Cincinnati was the only Group of 5 school that made the four-team College Football Playoff in the last 10 seasons, and the Bearcats lost 27-6 to Alabama in the Cotton Bowl Classic on Dec. 31, 2021. Cincinnati is now in the Big 12.

How long will that harmony last knowing that there are no ranked Group of 5 teams and only six schools – Boise State, Liberty, Memphis, UTSA, Appalachian State and Tulane – are receiving votes?

How patient will the Power 5 conferences be with this model? If the Group of 5 champion plays like Tulane did in a 46-45 come-back victory against USC in the 2023 Cotton Bowl, then it will be fine. If we get two or three blowouts – like Oregon’s 45-6 victory against in last year’s Fiesta Bowl – then this is going to be another layer to the strength-of-schedule conversation in the new world.

Strength of schedule rating for Power 4 schools

A full list of the Power 4 schools and Notre Dame and the number of teams they play in the AP Top 25. Florida – which plays eight ranked teams, including four teams inside the top 10, has the toughest schedule among those schools: