Early NFL picks, predictions against the spread Week 1: Chiefs turn back Ravens, Eagles outlast Packers, more

The wait is almost over for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season, but it's not too early to make our picks and predictions for the opening full schedule of games with everything kicking off soon after Labor Day again on Sept. 5.

Week 1 lines and betting odds have been out for a while in anticipation, with some movement up and down. Now that most teams are set with their short-term outlook coming out of the preseason, it's ideal to make the first fearless forecast of the season — one that will be followed by 22 more through Super Bowl 59 next Feb. 5.

Here are Sporting News' NFL Week 1 picks straight up and against the spread for an exciting initial slate, starting with Ravens at Chiefs on opening night.

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook )

NFL picks against the spread for Week 1

• Game of Midweek: Ravens at Chiefs (-3, 46.6 o/u)

Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC and Peacock

The Chiefs remember losing their home opener last season ahead of their successful Super Bowl title defense. They stumbled with some key personnel absences vs. the Lions in Week 1 2023, but they look stronger than the team that repeated, with a third consecutive ring well in sight. The Chiefs' offense with two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes has a little more pop than the Ravens' offense with two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, leading to a little more scoring in the September rematch of the January AFC championship game.

Pick: Chiefs win 24-20 and cover the spread.

• Game of Late Week: Packers at Eagles (in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil (-2.5, 48.5 o/u)

Friday  8:15 p.m. ET, Peacock

The Packers have great momentum at quarterback with Jordan Love's breakout season ending with his first playoff win, putting him on track to cash in with a lucrative offseason contract extension . The Eagles' offense slumped a bit with its identity, consistency, and big-play ability, which hurt any chances of a second straight deep NFC playoff run. Green Bay did its best to fix its defense again, but Philadelphia will restore its explosiveness around Jalen Hurts under Kellen Moore, allowing him to outduel Love. Rio's carnival atmosphere will be rewarded with a points party.

Pick: Eagles win 30-27 and cover the spread.

• Game of the Week: Cowboys at Browns (-1.5, 43.5 o/u)

Sunday 4.25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Cowboys' defense will slip a bit with a few key personnel losses and no more Dan Quinn calling plays, and it got hit with the extra blow of top cornerback DaRon Bland going on the shelf with a foot injury . The Browns' defense flexed last season with Myles Garrett, and it will go to work on a reworked Cowboys' offensive line protecting Dak Prescott. This promising passing affair between Prescott and Deshaun Watson becomes a low-scoring, mistake-filled grinder, which favors the home team.

Pick: Browns win 20-17 and cover the spread.

• Lock of the Week: Bills (-6.5, 48.5 o/u) over Cardinals

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Bills' new-look offense around Josh Allen already kicked in well last season under Joe Brady and will continue to find more diversity and versatility to make it difficult to defend. The Cardinals won't slow it down much, from Allen's running to more intermediate passing. Kyler Murray will try to use rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and others to answer well on the road, but the Bills take care of business with the front seven pressure and coverage.

Pick: Bills win 31-20 and cover the spread.

• Upset of the Week: Steelers (+3, -42.5 o/u) over Falcons

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Arthur Smith gets to keep coaching in Atlanta for one more game as the new Steelers' offensive coordinator, and he will still feel at home because of a sea of Black and Gold taking over Atlanta. The Falcons are hoping to have a lot more passing pop without Smith, thanks to Kirk Cousins under center. Pittsburgh, however, will spoil the fun with its pass rush and ball-hawking secondary. Mike Tomlin's offense hasn't looked pretty in the preseason, but this is where the power rushing attack will be complementary enough to push the Steelers to victory.

Pick: Steelers win 20-17.

• Titans at Bears (-4.5, 43.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Titans are feeling some sleeper buzz for their major schematic and personnel newness to lift Will Levis and the defense, but that doesn't compare to the hype Caleb Williams is giving the Bears with a reload of offensive weapons and an upward defense under Matt Eberflus. Williams spreads the ball around well in an auspicious veteran-like debut, but Levis makes it interesting late with his own upgraded firepower.

Pick: Bears win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.

• Jaguars at Dolphins (-4.5, 49.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Jaguars had some real offensive dysfunction last season, as Trevor Lawrence and the passing game let down with injuries and failed adjustments. The Dolphins had limited issues because of dynamic, big-play production from their running backs and wide receivers. Tua Tagovailoa and Lawrence both got lucrative contract extensions as 2020 first-rounders, so the expectations will be raised. For Week 1, the home Florida team wins on the strength of the more impactful pass defense.

Pick: Dolphins win 31-24 and cover the spread.

• Patriots at Bengals (-9.5, 42.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Bengals should be pumped to have a healthy Joe Burrow leading the offense again with the Patriots' defense being in transition without Bill Belichick. They can slow down some of Burrow's support, but not all. The Patriots' offense, with whoever's at QB, can't expect to keep up, and it will also face a strong pass rush and tough coverage looks once it's not in position to keep running.

Pick: Bengals win 27-14 and cover the spread.

• Texans (-1.5, 48.5 o/u) at Colts

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

C.J. Stroud vs. Anthony Richardson revs up as a rivalry again, as both second-year QBs are healthy to open AFC South play early. The Texans are feeling great about their favorite status to repeat in the division, pouring on plenty more to help Stround and DeMeco Ryan's Will Anderson Jr.-fueled defense. The Colts have higher overall expectations and can get into the wild-card mix later, but the Texans have fewer questions out of the gate.

Pick: Texans win 27-24 and cover the spread.

• Vikings (-1.5, 41.5 o/u) at Giants

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Sam Darnold is Minnesota's starting quarterback with rookie J.J. McCarthy (knee) out for the season . Darnold returns to his original home as a former Jet, but the Giants' defense won't be kind, getting good pressure on him with its improved front. Daniel Jones hasn't inspired much as New York's QB in his return from major knee injury, but he can make enough plays with his legs to steal an ugly one, as he will have his share of passing woes vs. Brian Flores' pass rush.

Pick: Giants win 17-14.

• Panthers at Saints (-4, 40.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Bryce Young and the Panthers' offense will show marked improvement at some point under Dave Canales, but there are some things they are still ironing out personnel-wise —  passing and running. The Saints are a little more stable in that respect and will have their own offensive schematic upgrades. They will also work on a Panthers' defense that lost plenty in the offseason.

Pick: Saints win 24-17 and cover the spread.

• Raiders at Chargers (-3.5, 42.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Chargers will not lose Jim Harbaugh's coaching debut. Antonio Pierce will have his Raiders fired up, but he doesn't have the spark of newness on his side. The Raiders' defense will be thrown a curveball by a run-heavy attack, limiting its pass-rush impact vs. Justin Herbert returning from a foot injury. Look for former Raider Khalil Mack to start well on the attack and inspire some tough playmaking to ensure his team grinds Harbaugh to victory.

Pick: Chargers win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.

• Broncos at Seahawks (-5.5, 41.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Bo Nix is used to starting games in the Pacific Northwest at Oregon, but this is a hostile environment for a rookie debut. He will need to deal with a revamped Seahawks defense that will be more dangerous against the pass under Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks will pound away on Denver's weak run defense with Kenneth Walker to set up Geno Smith for efficient downfield passing.

Pick: Seahawks win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.

• Commanders at Buccaneers (-3, 41.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Commanders will be a lot more competitive this season with Jayden Daniels leading a new offense and Dan Quinn coaching a new defense. Daniels will be fearless passing and running in his debut, even on the road vs. Todd Bowles' defense. There were some pieces lost there, and the Commanders have a slew of key newcomers for Quinn.

Pick: Commanders win 24-20.

• Rams at Lions (-3.5, 51.5 o/u)

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The Rams need to return to Detroit with Matthew Stafford for a second consecutive game after losing there in the playoffs. Stafford's been hurting but will be ready to rev up the loaded offense with a healthy Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams along with a mending Puka Nacua. The Lions will roll out a familiar balanced and explosive offense with Jared Goff, getting a little more punch from Aidan Hutchinson and the defense to shut the door late.

Pick: Lions win 27-23 and cover the spread.

• Jets at 49ers (-4.5 44.5 o/u)

Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

Aaron Rodgers has had a rough offseason in trying to reestablish himself as a revered, feared QB at 40 coming off a torn Achilles. He's still working out kinks with his receivers, so the Jets will lean plenty on Breece Hall and the running game to support the defense. Kyle Shanahan will prepare Brock Purdy well for Robert Saleh's group at home, and there's a lot more stability and firepower on the 49ers' offense. Expect more of the playoff version of Rodgers vs. San Francisco than the regular-season one.

Pick: 49ers win 24-17 and cover the spread.