The 2024 NFL Draft featured six quarterbacks in the first round, but how many of those quarterbacks will score a victory in Week 1 of the NFL season?
Chicago’s Caleb Williams, Washington’s Jayden Daniels, Denver’s Bo Nix, and possibly New England’s Drake Maye will open the season in starting roles, and they all face tough tasks out of the gates.
The Bears are the only favored team among that bunch, which puts the spotlight on Williams heading into a home opener against the Titans. Remember when Justin Fields led Chicago to a victory against San Francisco in Week 1? The Bears are burning to get back in the NFC playoff picture. To do that, they can’t lose games like this.
Of course, there are other themes to watch in Week 1, including four matchups between playoff teams from last season. The Chiefs open the season on Thursday Night Football against the Ravens. The Packers meet the Eagles in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Friday.
The Browns face the Cowboys in the spot-light 4:25 p.m. ET game, and the Lions and Rams meet in an NFC wild-card rematch on Sunday Night Football. All that precedes Aaron Rodgers’ return with the Jets against the 49ers on Monday Night Football.
It's a loaded week. Each week, we will give our predictions. Last season, we were 179-106 (.628) in straight-up picks and 146-131-8 (.527) against the spread. Here are our straight-up picks for Week 1.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
NFL picks, predictions for Week 1
- Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
It’s an AFC championship rematch and another head-to-head matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs are 4-1 in those previous matchups. Will Derrick Henry, 30, help flip the script for Baltimore, or will the Chiefs’ march to a possible three-peat start in style? Kansas City lost the Week 1 Thursday Night Football opener last season in a game defined by dropped passes. This one is cleaner, and Kansas City continues to one-up Baltimore in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Ravens 21
- Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Friday, 8:15 p.m., Peacock
Football in Brazil will be entertaining with a quarterback duel between Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love with new running backs Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. On top of that, both teams have new defensive coordinators in Vic Fangio and Jeff Hafley. The Packers couldn’t stop the run last season. The Eagles couldn’t stop the pass. Look for a shootout, with the Packers winning on a walk-off field goal – if Green Bay has the right kicker.
Pick: Packers 31, Eagles 28
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. Fox
Two teams with quarterback drama in the offseason face off. Mike Tomlin chose Russell Wilson, but it's possible that both Wilson and Fields play on the road. Atlanta will go with Kirk Cousins with first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. watching. Atlanta was 5-3 S/U at home last year. The Steelers were 5-4 S/U on the road. It is a true coin-flip game, and we are going to trust Tomlin makes the right choice.
Pick: Steelers 26, Falcons 21
- Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. CBS
Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs in the offseason, and Josh Allen still has a rebuilt receiving corps with rookie Keon Coleman and veteran Curtis Samuel. The Bills were 8-2 S/U and 5-5 ATS at home last season, numbers that will be tested against Arizona. Will rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. score his first NFL touchdown? Kyler Murray is 17-14 on the road for his career, which is much better than his home split. Arizona was 2-7 S/U on the road last season. That is a tough trend to overcome.
Pick: Bills 30, Cardinals 20
- Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. Fox
Williams had ups and downs in the preseason, but his playmaking upside is high with an improved supporting cast that includes Keenan Allen and first-round pick Rome Odunze. The defense still needs improvement, however, and second-year quarterback Will Levis will make some plays in a new-look offense with first-year coach Brian Callahan. Tennessee could still pull the upset here, but the Bears get a late turnover to pull off an exciting Week 1 victory.
Pick: Bears 24, Titans 21
- New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m. CBS
The largest line of Week 1 has the Bengals at home in Week 1, and Joe Burrow and the starters played more in the preseason this year. That’s because Cincinnati has lost in Week 1 in four of the past five seasons, and the only victory was in overtime against Minnesota in 2021. The Patriots open a new chapter with Jerod Mayo, and the key will be avoiding turnovers on the road. Get this line now before it drops during the week.
Pick: Bengals 25, Patriots 17
- Houston Texans (-2) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. CBS
Second-year quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson will square off, and this is a chance for Richardson to quiet down the critics after an uneven preseason. The Houston hype is real, and they have won the past two meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium. Stroud keeps that momentum from last season rolling, and a fourth-quarter interception helps the Texans put the Colts away.
Pick: Texans 31, Colts 21
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. CBS
The Dolphins are 6-2 S/U and average 31 points per game in September under third-year coach Mike McDaniel, and those numbers improve to 3-0 S/U and 37 points per game at home. They are a fast-start team, and Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill should be able to restore their connection. The defense will be healthy, too. Can Trevor Lawrence turn this into a shootout and make it the highest-scoring game of the week?
Pick: Dolphins 34, Jaguars 28
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. Fox
The Panthers open their second season with Bryce Young, and new coach Dave Canales offers a fresh take on an offense that ranked 31st in the NFL with 13.9 points per game last season. The Saints have won four of the past five meetings at home, and three of those games have been decided by three points. Look for Chase Young to be a difference-maker in his New Orleans debut.
Pick: Saints 25, Panthers 16
- Minnesota Vikings (-1) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. Fox
The Vikings will start veteran Sam Darnold on the road. Minnesota was 5-4 S/U on the road last season. Much of the focus on the Giants is on quarterback Daniel Jones and first-round pick Malik Nabers, but the defense under new coordinator Shane Bowen could be the key here in a pick-em matchup. Darnold has a 75.7 career passer rating on the road.
Pick: Giants 21, Vikings 18
- Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. CBS
Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL, and the match with Justin Herbert should rejuvenate the franchise. Antonio Pierce has a head start with the same mission in Las Vegas. The Raiders won the last meeting 63-21, which led to Brandon Staley being fired. Both sides likely remember that one, well. This one will come down to the final drive, and the Chargers will start the Harbaugh era off with a last-minute victory.
Pick: Chargers 23, Raiders 20
- Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. CBS
Nix will make his debut on the road against Seattle and first-year coach Mike Macdonald. The Broncos had a +4 turnover margin last season, and if Nix can be efficient a road upset is possible here. Geno Smith is more familiar with his supporting cast, however, and DK Metcalf and Kenneth Walker III each will score TDs in a new chapter of Seahawks’ football.
Pick: Seahawks 21, Broncos 17
- Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
No team generates more Week 1 overreactions than Dallas, and this game will not be an exception. The Browns made the playoffs last season, and they were 8-1 S/U at home. Deshaun Watson has just as much on the line from a perception standpoint as Dak Prescott. CeeDee Lamb ended his holdout, and that could impact the line leading up to kickoff. This is a game we would probably stay away from otherwise, but pressed for a pick, we'll take a small upset.
Pick: Cowboys 21, Browns 20
- Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Jayden Daniels will start for the Commanders after an impressive preseason, and he will meet another Heisman Trophy winner in Baker Mayfield. Washington has emerged as a popular playoff sleeper, which Tampa Bay lived out in real life last year. Mayfield did not have a great home split last season with an 88.2 rating, 10 TDs, and seven interceptions. That is a bit of a red flag, but we’ll stick with the home team, which will force a few rookie mistakes from Daniels.
Pick: Buccaneers 26, Commanders 18
- Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
The Lions are a trendy Super Bowl pick again, and the novelty of facing Matthew Stafford has worn off. How will the Rams’ interior defense hold up without Aaron Donald, who retired this offseason? The Lions will test that early, and the running game will be a difference in the fourth quarter. Campbell elects for field goals to put the game away late, and newcomer Jake Bates is on the mark. Detroit was 6-4 ATS at home last season.
Pick: Lions 31, Rams 24
- New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Monday, 8:20 p.m., ABC
Rodgers’ debut comes against an opponent he knows well, but the 49ers had the preseason drama. Christian McCaffrey (calf) dealt with an injury. Trent Williams is in a holdout, and Brandon Aiyuk is looking for a trade partner. Does that hang over the team against a New York roster that might arrive a year later than expected – and can do so in spectacular fashion on the road? Rodgers keeps it close, but the 49ers get a stop in crunch time.
Pick: 49ers 21, Jets 18
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