College Football Playoff bracket for Week 2: Projecting top four seeds, first-round matchups, bubble teams

The top-10 showdown in Week 2 between Texas and Michigan will reverberate long after Week 2 for both programs and their conferences, but for not for the promotional material.

Yes, this is the best game on the non-conference schedule in 2024. Yes, these are two College Football Playoff teams from last season. It will take place in the largest stadium in the FBS, and these teams' last meeting was a legendary Rose Bowl, where the Longhorns won 38-37 on Jan. 1, 2005. That is the one where Vince Young said, "We'll be back."

The Longhorns are back, right? Texas can establish its SEC credentials before the conference season. Quinn Ewers was in top form in a 52-0 blowout against Colorado State , but there is caution here. The Longhorns are 5-9 against top-25 teams under Sarkisian – including a 1-4 record against top-10 teams. It is easy to dust off those "Texas is back" memes.

Speaking of memes, Connor Stalions was out in force after the Wolverines' lackluster offense performance in a 30-10 victory against Fresno State in Week 1. Michigan had 269 yards of total offense in the debut of full-time coach Sherrone Moore. The Wolverines still have a dominant defense, and a 23-game home winning streak. Michigan also is 10-3 against top-25 teams and 7-3 against top-10 teams the last three years, but that was under Jim Harbaugh.

This is the data point for the SEC and the Big Ten for those at-large teams. Georgia, Texas and Alabama are ranked in the top four, and the conference has seven of the top 16 teams in our Week 2 1-134 Rankings.

The Big Ten is loaded, too. Ohio State is in the top four. Oregon, Michigan and Penn State are in the top 10, and USC is right there now after a 27-20 victory against LSU on Sunday. Iowa and Nebraska – yes, we have the Huskers in the top 25 after an impressive Week 1 – are next. Which conference is the NFL of college football?

USC-LSU was one of those games. Michigan-Texas will help figure that out when it is time to divy up the at-large bids.

That is what to watch with our College Football Playoff bracketology in Week 2.

MORE: Week 1 overreactions, from 'The U' to Dabo Swinney

Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes

No. 1 Georgia (SEC champion)

The Bulldogs have the strongest non-conference victory of our four projected Power 4 champions after routing Clemson 34-3 .  Georgia will have road tests later at Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, but that was a gentle reminder that Kirby Smart still has an SEC machine that has outscored ACC heavyweights Florida State and Clemson 97-6 in its last two games.

No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)

The Buckeyes will have competition in Big Ten play – we just won’t see it for at least another month. Will Howard settled in as the quarterback, and the defense had 10 tackles for loss and two defensive TDs. Western Michigan is next before an early-season bye week. Oregon and Michigan left more questions on offense in Week 1. Will Penn State be the threat?

No. 3 Utah (Big 12 champion)

Utah remains the projected Big 12 champion. Cam Rising was brilliant in his return with five TD passes, and that consistency at quarterback will be huge for coach Kyle Whittingham in Big 12 play. The Utes open up Big 12 against Baylor before Week 3 against Utah State. That front-loaded conference schedule heats up at the end of the month against Oklahoma State and Arizona.

No. 4 Miami, Fla.  (ACC champion)

We had Florida State as the ACC champion before Week 0 and Clemson before Week 1. Miami delivered with a 41-17 victory against Florida – a separator against an SEC school that could pay off later. Florida State is the only ranked team left on the Hurricanes schedule, but that could change in what figures to be a wide-open conference race.

Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups

A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 2 of the college football season:

No. 12 Memphis (American champion) at No. 5 Texas (SEC at-large)

This is the same projection as last week. Memphis is creeping toward the top 25, and they can’t look past Troy in Week 2 before taking on Florida State on Sept. 14. Texas remains the highest-ranked at-large team, and they can move up the rankings with an impressive showing at Michigan in Week 2.

No. 11 Penn State (Big Ten at-large) at No. 6 Alabama (SEC at-large)

This would be an all-time uniform game. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe (98.7) and Penn State’s Drew Allar (98.3) ranked Nos. 1-2 in QBR after Week 1. This is the quarterback matchup you didn’t know you needed – and there is more than enough postseason history between these teams.

No. 10 Michigan (Big Ten at-large) at No. 7 Notre Dame (at-large)

A throwback defensive showdown between the Wolverines and Irish would be a great way to bring in playoff games on campus. Michigan’s hold here is tenuous given how rough the offense looked in Week 1 and it would be easy to put in a fifth SEC team such as LSU or Tennessee. Notre Dame scored a huge victory against Texas A&M . One loss will not knock the Irish out of the CFP. It doesn’t become a conversation until the second loss now.

MORE: Grading quarterback debuts, including Riley Leonard and Cam Ward

No. 9 Ole Miss (SEC at-large) at No. 8 Oregon (Big Ten at-large)

The second Big Ten vs. SEC showdown in the first round (get used to those, by the way). Lane Kiffin vs. Dan Lanning? Yep, we’re in for the aggressive fourth-down calls alone. Jaxson Dart had a 276.2 efficiency rating after Week 1, and Dillon Gabriel completed 41 of 49 passes in his Oregon debut. Home-field would matter here, and the SEC schools get the edge for now.

Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams

USC

You can put USC in ahead of Michigan based on Week 1, but we will let it play out in Week 2. The Trojans pulled out a 27-20 victory against LSU that puts them squarely in the mix with third-year coach Lincoln Riley. Miller Moss passed for 378 yards and a TD — and USC has a defense now with new coordinator D'Anton Lynn.

Tennessee

Tennessee is trending upward, and quarterback Nico Iamaleava is a huge reason why. The Vols had 718 total yards in Week 1, second only to Ole Miss – which totaled 772 yards. Tennessee gets a prime-time spotlight against NC State in Week 2. The stage belongs to Iamaleava.

Missouri

The Tigers rank first in the SEC in total defense after allowing 85 total yards  in a 51-0 victory against Murray State. Missouri faces Buffalo in Week 2. Yes, the Tigers have a weak non-conference. It does not hurt to be dominant in those games.

Kansas State

Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson played well in a 41-6 victory against UT-Martin, and running back DJ Giddens added 124 yards on 9.5 yards per carry. The Wildcats are the ultimate run-the-ball, stop-the-run team, and they face Tulane in Week 2.

Oklahoma

This bubble looks like the old Big 12, doesn’t it? Oklahoma makes eight teams among the top 16 contenders. The defense forced six turnovers in a 51-3 victory against Temple. Jackson Arnold threw four TDs, but he also took three sacks.