What happened when a statistician simulated the NASCAR Playoffs 10,000 times

Harrison Burton and the Wood Brothers enters the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with the lowest odds imaginable to actually advance all the way to the championship race and be the highest finisher of the final four in that race.

In fact, statistician Neil Paine simulated the next 10 weeks 10,000 times for NASCAR.com and Burton only won the championship three times. He is such a longshot because Burton suffered through a dreadful season until surviving the chaos at Daytona to win his way into the playoffs from 34th in the standings.

But as Paine projected, it’s not impossible .

• In Sim No. 110 , Burton won at Watkins Glen while Byron and Blaney were both eliminated in Round 1, then Hamlin and Elliott followed suit in Round 2 as Burton finished 16th at Kansas and 15th at Talladega. Burton made the Championship 4 over Bowman, Truex and Keselowski with an eighth-place run at Martinsville. Finally, he placed second at Phoenix as the rest of the contenders (Bell, Gibbs and Larson) finished outside the top 16.
• Sim No. 2,961 was less chaotic at first than Sim 110, as each of the top nine regular-season drivers advanced, but it also saw Briscoe, Burton and Bowman advancing (at the expense of Logano, Suárez and Truex), thanks in part to Burton finishing third at Bristol. Blaney and Keselowski dropped off in Round 2 as Burton won his way forward at Talladega; the Round of 8 saw a shakeup with Byron, Hamlin and Elliott eliminated as Burton held steady with finishes of 18th, 12th and 15th. In the championship race, Larson and Reddick ran outside the top 10, but Burton outdueled Bell (who was third) to finish second and claim the title.
• Finally, in Sim No. 7,558 , Keselowski was the only member of the top 12 in pre-playoff points to exit in Round 1, opening the door for Burton with his seventh-place finish at Atlanta. There were some shockers in Round 2 as Bell, Reddick and Hamlin all fell by the wayside, but Burton finished 13th at Kansas and eighth at Talladega to move on. At the precipice of the Championship 4, Burton overcame a 24th-place finish at Vegas with a pair of top 10s at Homestead and Martinsville, and Byron dropped off following a trio of finishes outside the top 25. And in the title race, disaster struck Blaney, Elliott and Larson — none finished higher than 36th — leaving room for Burton to place 12th for the championship.

The data

The simulations predictably surmised that Kyle Larson, the top seeded contender, would win the championship more often that any other driver and the logic tracks because the Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 leads the series with four wins and has proven capable of winning anywhere on the schedule.

That’s to say nothing of his playoff point advantage entering each round as well.

Tyler Reddick, the regular season champion, edged out Christopher Bell for the second highest number of simulated championship wins but both also have a similar pathway there with strengths on flat tracks and road courses — the heavy braking courses.

Paine, who uses a formula based on championship points earned and track type strength, didn’t like Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe or Daniel Suarez as would-be threats either and the stats largely support it.

All told, the biggest case for the favorites to fall out early and for the non-favorites to advance, all center around the most combustible playoff schedule in the 11 year history of the format with two superspeedway races, two road courses and even two races in the first round (Watkins Glen and Bristol) with major question marks about what kind of tear wear to expect.

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