The NFL season is finally here once again. After months of anticipation, fans across the nation will finally get to see their teams in meaningful action.
The Carolina Panthers open their season on the road against an NFC South rival, the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans has dominated Carolina as of late, sweeping them last year and claiming victory in 11 of their last 15 matchups. The Panthers are coming off an NFL-worst 2-15 season, while the Saints are looking to improve upon a 9-8 campaign.
These teams have similar weaknesses, such as their offensive lines and pass rush. The Saints, attempting to remedy this, selected left tackle Taliese Fuaga in the first round of the 2024 draft. They also signed defensive end Chase Young, a former first-round pick out of Washington that has yet to live up to his hype.
While New Orleans addressed both position groups in the offseason, Carolina elected to focus their efforts on primarily offense. They signed guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt to monster deals to protect their young quarterback, Bryce Young. They traded for former Pittsburgh receiver Diontae Johnson and drafted wideout Xavier Legette in the first round.
Carolina cut edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson, however, who is a former Jacksonville first-round pick that has disappointed thus far in his career. The Panthers' room of edge rushers now looks bleak. They signed veteran Jadeveon Clowney in the offseason after trading Brian Burns to the New York Giants but chose not to address the position in the draft.
Sports pundits, analysts, and fans are overwhelmingly picking the Saints to win their 2024 opener. The Panthers have a chance to steal one on the road, but to perform such a difficult task, they will need to focus on these three keys to victory:
Key One: Stop Alvin Kamara
Kamara is a Swiss Army knife for the Saints. The veteran is just as effective at running routes and catching as he is at running the ball. Despite his age (most consider 29 to be "old" for running backs), Kamara is still the engine that makes this offense run.
That is why Carolina must key in on stopping Kamara. The Saints currently list Derek Carr as their starting quarterback, and while he has not been terrible, his ability to carry an offense is not there anymore. With a pair of starting tackles that struggled in training camp and preseason, the Saints will be looking for Kamara to take the pressure off Carr. This will force Carolina to play closer to the line of scrimmage and allow Carr to take some deep shots to WR Chris Olave.
If Carolina's front seven can keep the Saints from establishing a run game, they can force New Orleans to play one-dimensionally on offense and try to force Carr into errant throws. Derrick Brown, who is listed as a defensive end in Carolina's 3-4 defensive scheme, will be leading the charge after a career year in 2023. He set an NFL record for most tackles by a defensive lineman in a single season with 103 last year. His stellar play even earned him a nice contract extension. The Panthers will look to Brown and linebacker Shaq Thompson, who is returning from an injury, to quarterback this defensive front.
Key Two: Protect Bryce Young
It sounds simple, because it IS simple. The Panthers invested heavily in the offensive line, but there are still two big question marks: left tackle Ikem Ekwonu and center Austin Corbett.
Corbett is not only recovering from a torn ACL back in January (ironically, it was against the Saints) but is still learning the ropes at the center position. Corbett has only played guard in his NFL career thus far; he has never played a regular season snap at center. Head coach Dave Canales has confidence in Corbett playing center, but how he will perform remains to be seen.
Ekwonu had a promising rookie season in 2022 but took a huge step back last year. He allowed 11 sacks, the third-most for any tackle in the league. Carolina signed swing tackle Yosh Nijman, formerly of Green Bay, to give Ekwonu a backup that could end up supplanting him if those struggles continue. Ekwonu and right tackle Taylor Moton will be going up against edge rushers Chase Young and Cam Jordan on Sunday. Both must keep their second-year QB upright to give Carolina a chance at a win.
Key Three: Convert on Third Down
In 2023, Carolina completed third down conversions at a rate of only 34.1%, which was towards the bottom of the league (24th overall). The top nine teams in that category made the playoffs, including the eventual Super-Bowl winners, the Kansas City Chiefs (who ranked sixth overall with a conversion rate of 43.6%).
It is imperative in football to keep the offense in third-and-manageable situations. In other words, a team ideally wants it to be five yards or less to convert a first down. In order to convert on third down consistently, Carolina needs to stay in third-and-manageable situations.
Fortunately for them, Carolina has an offense full of guys that can be effective in picking up enough yards to stay in these situations. Short passes to Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen, outside zone runs with Chuba Hubbard, and even run-pass option plays that could involve getting the ball to Xavier Legette. These are the plays that Canales should be calling in his first regular season game as a head coach.
The NFC South is wide open this year. Many have predicted that the Atlanta Falcons will win it, thanks to a strong offseason that involved picking up a new quarterback (technically two) and fortifying the defense. Either the Saints or the Panthers, however, could contend for the most unpredictable division in the NFL. It all starts with a strong week one.
Panthers vs. Saints kicks off at 1:00 pm EST on FOX. New Orleans is currently listed as -4.5 favorite. The over/under is currently set at 41.5.
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