After Hillsborough legislator decides to call it quits, dominoes fall

A maverick Republican’s frustrated decision to leave his east Hillsborough state House seat led to a last-minute reshuffling of the candidate slates for local races in the county, and could affect control of the board of county commissioners.

It began when state Rep. Mike Beltran, R-Riverview, decided his time would be better spent shepherding his young family and tending his growing law practice than battling what he says is a top-down, dictatorial atmosphere in the state Legislature.

Beltran announced June 6 that he wouldn’t run for an almost certain reelection.

That quickly led to a series of falling dominoes:

On June 12, Republican county Commissioner Mike Owen, who had been running for reelection, switched to the state House race to replace Beltran.

On the same day, Republican newcomer Christine Miller, who had been filed in a countywide commissioner’s race, switched to run in Owen’s east Hillsborough district. The race in the heavily GOP-leaning district likely will be easier for a Republican than the countywide race.

And at the same time, another newcomer, firefighters union official Chris Boles, jumped into the countywide race, replacing Miller. Boles likely will face well-known Democrat Sean Shaw, a former state House member and candidate for attorney general.

Both Miller’s and Boles’ campaigns have ties to the consulting firm of local political operative Anthony Pedicini, who has been closely associated with GOP legislative leadership.

The countywide race is where Republicans have hopes of flipping a Democratic seat to Republican. It’s being left open by Pat Kemp, who must leave due to term limits, and is one of two held by Democrats on the seven-member board.

Boles faces a primary against Jim Davison, a physician and long-time civic activist who has run previously for the commission and the Tampa City Council.

County GOP Chairperson Carmen Edmonds said she wasn’t worried that a primary battle would weaken the nominee.

“They’re both strong candidates, well-known around the county, and I think our donors will coalesce around the primary winner,” she said.

Democrats, meanwhile, would like to gain a seat, but their most realistic hope is to hold their current two. That requires winning the countywide race.

Shaw also faces a primary in that race, but his opponent, Joseph Taylor, hadn’t raised significant campaign money by May 31, and according to county Democratic Party chairperson Ione Townsend, has not contacted the local party. He couldn’t be reached for comment.

Democrats face uphill battles in Owen’s District 4 seat and the other district seat on the ballot, the north Hillsborough District 2 seat held by Republican Ken Hagan.

In District 4, Republicans hold a 43-27 percent voter registration advantage; Owen won the seat in 2022 with no Democratic opponent. Miller is well-known in the area as president of the Plant City Chamber of Commerce.

Two Democrats have qualified in District 4: Jonathon Chavez, a recent University of South Florida graduate and environmental advocate, and Nicole Payne, president of the county Black Chamber of Commerce. Neither had raised substantial campaign money as of May 31.

Newcomer Democrat Patricia Alonzo is challenging Hagan in District 2, but it would take a major upset to defeat the 22-year board veteran Hagan.

Beltran, an arch-conservative, acknowledged that he often found himself opposed to the priorities of Republican leadership in the Legislature, where the House speaker and Senate president have virtually ironclad authority over committees and legislation.

Beltran opposed GOP priorities including a 2023 tort reform package pushed by House Speaker Paul Renner; a bill to weaken protections against telemarketing calls; and Senate President Kathleen Passidomo’s Live Healthy package. He even voted against the 2024 budget, the top priority of every legislative session, because of what he considered excessive spending.

He said his opposition to leadership priorities drew him consequences, including the death of some of his own bills.

His decision not to seek reelection came unexpectedly in early June. That was too late for Owen to make the deadline to file a delayed resignation under the state resign-to-run law. So in order to run for Beltran’s seat, Owen had to resign his commissioner’s seat immediately and couldn’t serve out his