Why we’re picking USF football to make the AAC championship

ARLINGTON, Texas — Despite the ongoing upheaval to the college football landscape, one of my axioms still holds true: Teams rarely lose one of their all-time great quarterbacks without regressing.

That’s one reason why I picked USF to finish second in the American Athletic Conference in the predicted order of finish I submitted before the league’s media days formally begin Tuesday at the Loews Arlington Hotel.

I considered picking USF to win its first league title, but Memphis returns too much from a 10-win team. The Tigers’ stability includes veteran coach Ryan Silverfield, a Jacksonville native who is in his fifth year after replacing Mike Norvell. It also includes arguably the league’s best quarterback, three-year starter Seth Henigan, who ranked in the top 10 nationally in passing yards, touchdowns and total offense last season.

The fact that Memphis returns 16 other starters and is first in the conference in ESPN’s SP+ rankings made the Tigers a fairly easy choice in the predicted order of finish I submitted.

No. 2 ended up being somewhat easy, too, even if preseason magazines might consider it a reach. USF was one of the nation’s most improved teams last season in Alex Golesh’s first year. His familiarity with the program (and his players’ familiarity with him) will be an advantage in Year 2. And there is a lot of familiarity; USF ranks eighth nationally in returning production, according to ESPN.

The major deciding factor was my general, time-tested belief about losing a great quarterback. Tulane lost one; 2023 AAC offensive player of the year Michael Pratt led the Green Wave to their first conference title in two-plus decades in 2022 and is the program’s all-time leading passer. Texas San Antonio lost one, too; Frank Harris was Conference USA’s MVP in 2022, an all-AAC quarterback in 2023 and is the Roadrunners’ all-time leader with 14,007 yards of total offense.

USF did not lose such a quarterback. In fact, it’s possible the Bulls returned one. Byrum Brown simply hasn’t been around long enough to belong in that Pratt/Harris tier. But it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he excels in his second full season as a starter and establishes himself as one of the best players in the conference and in USF history.

Pair USF’s rising star power at the game’s most important position with the fading star power of the Roadrunners and Green Wave, and you can see why I’m picking USF to earn a spot in the conference title game.

I’m much less convinced on the state’s other AAC team. I put Florida Atlantic seventh. I’m surprised Tom Herman — the former Texas coach who went 22-4 at Houston — hasn’t made a bigger splash heading into his second season. A middle-of-the-pack transfer portal class doesn’t inspire any confidence that the Owls will be any better than a middle-of-the-pack team this fall.

I’m also skeptical on Alabama Birmingham. The Blazers didn’t do enough in Year 1 to win me over on the program’s long-term future under former Bucs quarterback Trent Dilfer. I put his team at 10th, between North Texas and Navy.

Our AAC predicted order of finish

1. Memphis

2. USF

3. Texas San Antonio

4. Tulane

5. Rice

6. East Carolina

7. Florida Atlantic

8. Army

9. North Texas

10. Alabama Birmingham

11. Navy

12. Tulsa

13. Charlotte

14. Temple

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