What to watch in Tennessee's primaries

The fate of another incumbent hangs in the balance during Thursday’s primaries in Tennessee.

It’s been tough to oust incumbents this cycle, with just three — Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.); Jerry Carl (R-Ala.), to a fellow member; and Bob Good (R-Va.), pending a recount — getting knocked out so far. But first-term Republican Rep. Andy Ogles faces a well-financed challenger on Thursday who has questioned his effectiveness and trustworthiness during his short time in the office.

Further up the ballot, another general election Senate matchup will be set as Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn finds out who her Democratic opponent is — potentially drawing a member of the “Tennessee Three.”

Here are the races to watch today:

— TN-Sen: Democrats are mounting a long-shot campaign to unseat Blackburn, who’s running for a second term. And some are hoping their likely Democratic nominee’s star power can make a difference in the deep-red state.

State Rep. Gloria Johnson gained national attention last year as a member of the “Tennessee Three.” Johnson, along with state Reps. Justin Pearson and Justin Jones, protested on the floor of the Republican-controlled state House for stricter gun laws in the aftermath of a deadly shooting at an elementary school. Pearson and Jones, who are both Black, were expelled for violating House rules (and were later reappointed and then won their reelection bids ), while Johnson, who is white, narrowly avoided getting expelled.

Their actions attracted national Democrats and brought renewed attention to state legislatures — especially during an off-year, when there were few high-profile elections . But it will be difficult for Johnson to replicate that momentum in a fairly red state in a year that has such a competitive Senate map for Democrats, who are prioritizing protecting their incumbents in Republican-leaning states like Ohio and Montana.

Johnson, who’s also running for reelection to her state House seat, faces three other Democrats for the nomination, including Marquita Bradshaw, an environmental activist and her party’s 2020 Senate nominee who lost to Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty by almost 30 points. Johnson has the biggest fundraising advantage over her primary opponents — $5 million raised since joining the race last September, with around $2 million on hand as of early July — though that’s paltry compared to Blackburn’s haul. Blackburn faces a nominal primary challenge as well.

Democrats have not had a strong showing statewide in Tennessee recently. Blackburn won by around 11 points in 2018, and incumbent Republican Gov. Bill Lee was reelected by a more than 30-percentage point margin in 2022.

— TN-05: Ogles faces a primary challenge from Nashville Metro Council member Courtney Johnston, who has outraised him and outspent him on the airwaves.

Johnston, who has been a member of the council since 2019 after ousting an incumbent, has slammed Ogles as being a “ do-nothing Republican ” and accused him of chasing “headlines.” And Conservatives with Character, an outside group funded primarily by Tennessee businesspeople , has gone after the incumbent over his taxes. Combined, Johnston and Conservatives with Character have blanketed the airwaves with more than $1 million in advertising through the primary, according to ad tracker AdImpact. Ogles has spent around $230,000, and has been boosted by $120,000 in ads from Americans for Prosperity Action.

Johnston has pointed to reports raising concerns regarding his campaign finances and allegedly inflated resume as reasons he’s not fit for another term.

But Ogles, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, does have one thing on his side: an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. While the power of Trump’s endorsement has weakened in recent primaries , it could give him a boost with the GOP primary electorate. And unlike Good, the Freedom Caucus chair who narrowly lost his primary but faces a recount Thursday, Ogles isn’t running against a Trump-backed challenger and hasn’t publicly enraged as many members of the GOP conference as Good has.

— TN-09: Longtime Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen is no stranger to a primary challenge — and he has another one today.

Three Black candidates, all of whom have unsuccessfully challenged him in the past, are looking to unseat Cohen, who is white and represents the Memphis-based predominantly Black seat.

Cohen has been consistently reelected in this district. M. Latroy A-Williams, who most recently primaried Cohen in the midterms, earned 12 percent of the vote then. Former county party chair Corey Strong, who got 15 percent of the vote in the 2020 primary, has hit the incumbent for being in office for almost two decades. Kasandra Smith, a law enforcement official, earned 6 percent of the vote in 2018.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.

A version of this story first appeared in POLITICO Pro's Morning Score newsletter. Sign up for POLITICO Pro .