Beryl, tropical downpours to raise Midwest and Northeast flood threat

Flooding downpours and the risk of tornadoes will extend into the Midwest and Northeast as Beryl tracks across the country after making landfall in Texas on Monday.

Key Takeaways:

• Impacts from Beryl will continue well beyond Texas in the United States through at least midweek.

• Beryl, as a tropical rainstorm, will bring heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding and tornadoes in the Central states and the Northeast.

• In the wake of Beryl, tropical downpours will continue along the Eastern Seaboard with the risk of flash flooding, as well as drought and heat relief in some areas.

Beryl will continue to trigger torrential rain, flooding downpours and severe thunderstorms as it travels more than 1,500 miles away from where it made landfall in Texas on Monday.

Beryl was still packing high winds, torrential rain, severe thunderstorms and flooding in parts of northeastern Texas on Monday. Instead of the system stalling over Texas, it will continue to be pushed along by a slight dip in the jet stream -- which will prevent a repeat of Harvey from August 2017. Harvey stalled for several days and unloaded several feet of rain that triggered catastrophic flooding.

Beryl's swift forward movement as a tropical rainstorm will not be enough to prevent torrential rain and flooding from occurring as far away as New England.

AccuWeather meteorologists refer to certain former tropical storms and hurricanes as tropical rainstorms to raise the awareness that disruptions, damage and dangers may continue from tropical systems long after the National Hurricane Center drops the name designation. Beryl will continue to be one of those systems.

The leading edge of Beryl's heavy rain will advance northeastward from Arkansas Monday night to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and northwestern Ohio on Tuesday night. Rainfall of 2-4 inches will be common within this swath, but local amounts of 4-8 inches will occur, especially from Arkansas to northwestern Indiana. Some locations within the heavier band may pick up close to 12 inches of rain.

A surge of high water continued to move southward along the middle Mississippi River, where water levels may push higher and last longer due to Beryl's rain as secondary tributary rivers rise in Missouri and Illinois.

By midweek, the core of then Tropical Rainstorm Beryl will push across the eastern Great Lakes, upstate New York and the St. Lawrence Valley bordering the U.S. and Canada.

As Beryl moves into the Northeast, it will interact with non-tropical systems and additional moisture from the Atlantic that will likely cause more far-reaching downpours and severe thunderstorms than Beryl would do on its own, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.

"A large area of high pressure just off the East Coast will act as a giant pump, first creating a heat wave into midweek and then helping draw in moisture along the Atlantic Seaboard to the Appalachians from midweek to Friday and perhaps Saturday," Buckingham explained, "There is a tremendous amount of moisture in the air, and that will likely be squeezed out in the form of torrential downpours that can ease drought on one hand and lead to flash flooding on the other."

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Initially, Beryl, as a tropical rainstorm, will trigger a pocket of heavy rain that will shift from the Great Lakes to parts of northern New England from Wednesday to Wednesday night. A secondary batch of downpours will develop along the mid-Atlantic coast and expand northward into New England at midweek.

Even as the core of Beryl departs, lingering moisture will fuel additional showers and thunderstorms Thursday to Friday and perhaps Saturday in parts of the Atlantic Seaboard. Any disturbance that rolls in from the Atlantic can enhance that moisture and create a pocket of intense rainfall.

It is possible that parts of the East receive half a foot of rain and perhaps locally more in the pattern from Wednesday to Saturday due to the combined effects of Beryl and the Atlantic moisture.

While rain from Beryl and the moisture from the Atlantic Ocean have the potential to trigger dangerous flash flooding, there will likely be a zone where very little rain falls, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.

"A portion of the Ohio Valley to perhaps southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia may miss out on both rainfall zones from mid- to late week," stated Dombek.

Beryl to continue tornado risk in northern US

Heavy rain and flash flooding are not the only concerns from Beryl in the central and northeastern U.S. Beryl prompted a slew of tornado warnings along the Texas coast from Sunday night to Monday as it approached from the Gulf of Mexico and pushed inland. A mix of dry air, intertwined with tropical moisture and tremendous rotation from the storm, will be the perfect ingredients for quick spin-up tornadoes.

"Certain tropical systems carry the risk of tornadoes well beyond the area, near where they make landfall. Beryl may continue to be one of those systems," Buckingham said. "Add in energy from the jet stream may enhance that risk near the Great Lakes and Northeast."

The likelihood of severe weather and the potential for tornadoes will continue near and just to the southeast of Beryl's core as it tracks across the middle Mississippi Valley and then the Great Lakes region.

From Tuesday to Tuesday night, the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will extend from southeastern Missouri and northwestern Tennessee to southern Illinois, southern Indiana and northwestern Kentucky.

From Wednesday to Wednesday night, the risk of tornadoes and/or storms packing strong wind gusts will extend from eastern Ohio to much of Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, western and central Mayland, southern and central New York, northern New Jersey and southwestern New England.

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