Could this year's hyperactive tornado season turn out to be the worst on record?

The United States is way ahead of normal this year for tornadoes, but could the year end up being the worst ever?

Severe weather has been a frequent occurrence across the United States this year, with an unusually high number of tornadoes, which has propelled 2024 toward the top of the list of the most active tornado years on record.

“This has been an incredibly active year for tornadoes in the United States,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok.

As of July 16, there had been 1,412 tornado reports in the United States, well ahead of the 2010-2024 historical average of 997, according to the Storm Prediction Center. In fact, 2024 has already had more tornadoes than the average annual total of 1,402.

Tornado outbreaks at the end of April and the month of May quickly raised 2024 above the historical average. Since then, a steady stream of tornadoes, including dozens during Hurricane Beryl, has increased that number even more.

This year has marked the return of the classic tornado alley in the U.S. Plains. After the May tornadoes, Texas and Iowa were the top states with the most tornadoes. As of July 16, Texas is still number one, but Nebraska has taken over the number-two spot, followed by Iowa and Missouri.

The biggest year on record for tornadoes was 2011. By July 10 that year, the U.S. had racked up 1,934 tornado reports and would ultimately reach 2,250 for the year.

Is there any chance that 2024 might surpass 2011 by the end of the year? It's not out of reach, but it would take multiple tornado outbreaks this fall and several more tropical storm or hurricane landfalls that spawn tornadoes such as Hurricane Beryl. Beginning at midnight July 7 and ending at 11 p.m. July 10, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued 201 tornado warnings as Beryl moved inland, with 97 warnings issued on July 8.

How many tornadoes touched down from Beryl? The NWS has confirmed 43 tornadoes.

Looking at tornadoes between July 10 and the end of the year, the most recorded was not 2011—which had a blockbuster spring—but rather 2004, totaling 844 during those dates. The second half of 2004 featured tornado outbreaks from Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, plus two fall severe weather outbreaks in mid-October and late November.