(The Center Square) – U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Houston, is leading his Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, by 44% to 36%, according to a new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll.
The poll shows Allred gaining ground when compared to previous polls UT/TXPP conducted. In December, Allred trailed Cruz by 16 points. He narrowed the gap to “14 points in February, 13 points in April, 11 points in June, and now 8 points today,” Jim Henson, executive director of The Texas Politics Project, said in an analysis of the data.
“A large part of this narrowing is likely due to Allred consolidating the support of Democratic voters who may not be familiar with the Dallas-area representative,” he said.
In August 2023, 34% of Democrats held a favorable view of Allred compared to 11% who didn’t, according to UT/TXPP data. This August, 69% of Democrats held a favorable view compared to 7% who didn’t, according to the data.
Allred still lacks name recognition with roughly one-fifth of Democratic voters who “still don't have a well-formed view of him,” Henson says.
Cruz faces a challenge with independent voters and is viewed favorably and unfavorably by 45% of Texas voters, respectively, according to the data.
Those who hold a favorable or unfavorable view fall along party lines, according to the data. The majority of Republican voters, 79%, overwhelmingly hold a favorable view; the majority of Democrats, 82%, don’t.
Overall, 45% of Texas voters approve of the job Cruz is doing, while 44% disapprove.
The Texas Senate race is seen as a key one to help Republicans stay in power in Washington, D.C., if they were to take control of the U.S. Senate, with Cruz considered a conservative champion among voters and colleagues.
The Wall Street Journal described the tax plans of the two presidential candidates, and congressional members of their respective parties, as “a $6 trillion chasm.” Democrats in Congress, including Allred, and Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, support tax increases on businesses and wealthier individuals. Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump and Cruz support decreasing them.
In 2017, Cruz voted for, and Harris, when she was in the Senate, voted against, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which Trump signed into law. It is set to expire at the end of 2025. Allred said if he were in the House at the time, he would have voted against it.
Allred, whose campaign is depicting him as a moderate, voted 100% of the time with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, when she was in office, according to his voting record.
The nonpartisan U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Cruz this week after twice endorsing Allred when he ran for Congress. They did so citing Cruz’s pro-business support, commitment to job creation, tax cuts and expanding economic opportunity, Neil Bradley, the Chamber’s Executive Vice President, told The Center Square.
The Texas Senate race “is a very different race” compared to when they previously endorsed Allred. For the U.S. Senate, he said, “the choice is pretty clear cut and simple. Sen. Cruz has a proven track record when it comes to supporting job creators, when it comes to delivering on business issues, when it comes to having an open door to hear about the concerns of local small businesses. And then he gets results. So we're confident that he's going to carry that forward another six years.”
Allred has endorsed Harris, who has vowed to increase taxes and implement price controls, policies Cruz argues would be disastrous for America, worsen the economy and kill jobs.
In a recent report, the chamber highlights how pro-economic growth tax policy increases wages and improves the economy. “Tax policy should be designed to minimize the negative impact on economic growth,” it says. “Pro-growth tax policy doesn’t just grow the overall U.S. economy; it raises wages for American workers and improves standards of living. Maintaining and improving pro-growth tax policy also ensures that the U.S. is globally competitive, retaining and attracting businesses, jobs, investment, and innovation here at home.”
Trump is also ahead of Harris in Texas, according to the UT/TPP poll.
“Texas voters express more trust in Trump on the issues that have regularly topped the ‘most important problems facing the state’ items over the last two years of polling, including the current poll,” it says.
Texas voters said they trust Trump more than Harris on the economy (50% v. 40%) and on inflation and prices (49% v. 40%).
They also trust Trump more on the issue of immigration and border security (53% v. 36%), representing Harris’ “lowest issue trust rating.”
Texas voters also trust Trump more than Harris on the issues of crime and public safety (48% v. 42%), foreign policy (45% v. 41%), and infrastructure, (45% v. 41%), according to the poll data.
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