Hines: Iowa State football game-by-game predictions for the 2024 season

You can feel the optimism bubbling up to the rim. As the start to the 2024 college football season bears down on us, Iowa State football fans are getting increasingly excited.

It’s not quite overflowing yet, but there’s still a couple weeks until the grill smoke rises above the tailgate lots and 60,000 faithful fill Jack Trice Stadium for the season opener against North Dakota.

The positivity might just yet spill over by then.

Unlike some seasons when fans have to contort themselves into stranger positions than an Australian break dancer to see the path to six or eight or however many wins, Iowa State football looks to have a clear path to being a Big 12 contender.

Things will still have to break the right way for coach Matt Campbell’s Cyclones, but between a roster that stayed mostly intact from last season and a schedule that does not feel overly daunting, the road to Arlington and the league title game is open for Iowa State.

All the Cyclones have to do is win a bunch of football games in a conference where five teams received first-place votes in the league’s preseason poll and where maybe a dozen fan bases are spending August talking themselves into contention.

And if history is our guide, Iowa State will find itself in single-score margin after single-score margin, leaving its fate to some combination of clutch plays and luck.

Wherever it ends, the stops along the way figure to be interesting.

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The biggest reason for optimism for Iowa State is undoubtedly an offense that looks ready to match the production and consistency of a defense that is excellent year in and year out.

Quarterback Rocco Becht, the league’s offensive freshman of the year in 2023, enters his second season as the starter following 3,120 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions a year ago. He’s got an all-Big 12 wideout duo in Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins along with a dynamic tight end in Ben Brahmer to throw to.

Despite the loss of All-American corner T.J. Tampa to the Baltimore Ravens, coordinator Jon Heacock’s defense figures to meet its high standards once again. The safety trio of Beau Freyler, Malik Verdon and Jeremiah Cooper is as good as it gets, and the defensive line looks much improved both with additions and the experienced gained a year ago.

There are, though, reasons for hesitancy.

The Cyclone offensive line should be improved, but this marks Year 9 of that chorus being sung. Abu Sama had an all-time performance in the snow-covered regular-season finale against Kansas State, but followed it up with four yards on 12 carries in the bowl game.

Defensively, the Cyclones have potential at linebacker and cornerback, but it’s probably worth looking at both position groups with clear eyes.

How will it all come together? Will it be an oh-so-close 2019 or a breakthrough 2020? Will the bottom fall out like 2022? Are we in store for something else entirely?

Here’s how I think it will unfold for them.

Aug. 31 vs. North Dakota, 2:30 p.m.

For all of Iowa State's well-publicized issues under Campbell in the first month of the season, the Cyclones' issues in the season opener have been significant but infrequent.

They've lost just twice in Campbell's eight openers, with the first coming all the way back in his debut season of 2016 and the last coming to Louisiana in 2020. There was the 3-OT close call against the Panthers back in 2019 and a six-point win over Mark Farley's team in 2021, but the Cyclones have won their last two openers by a combined score of 72-19, with both games coming against FCS foes (UNI and Southeast Missouri).

So a team picked to finish in the middle of the Missouri Valley Conference shouldn't inspire much consternation for the Cyclones.

Iowa State 52, North Dakota 7

Cyclones 1-0

Sept. 7 at Iowa, 2:30 p.m.

It remains one of the stranger − and, for Iowa State fans, presumably crueler − facts that the only time Campbell's team has defeated its in-state rival came in what was probably the worst season of his tenure. Is this the year the Cyclones can pair a Hawkeye victory with a successful season?

It seems like a stretch this year.

The Hawkeyes enter the season ranked in the top 25 and, if they can get their offense elevated from "historically terrible" to "mostly just bad," they have real College Football Playoff chances. Maybe coach Kirk Ferentz and new offensive coordinator Tim Lester can't manage that upgrade by early September, but asking Iowa State to leave Kinnick Stadium with a victory for a second straight time is probably a bit much.

Iowa 17, Iowa State 14

Cyclones 1-1

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Sept. 21 vs. Arkansas State, 1 p.m.

Arkansas State is not a shy football program.

They plucked head coach Butch Davis, who previously led Tennessee, Cincinnati and Central Michigan, off Nick Saban's staff in Alabama, and the Red Wolves have played Memphis, Washington, Ohio State and Oklahoma in the non-conference under Davis. It's also worth noting they have not won any of those games.

This year, Arkansas State takes on defending national champion Michigan the week before coming to Ames, so, again, points for boldness, but probably not many being put on the scoreboard by the Red Wolves this September.

Iowa State 35, Arkansas State 10

Cyclones 2-1

Sept. 28 at Houston, TBD

This is the type of game Iowa State likely needs to win if it wants to be in the conversation as among the Big 12's best.

Road games are always difficult, but the Cougars are coming off a 4-8 campaign with a first-year head coach and were playing in the AAC two years ago. They're picked to finish 15th in the Big 12 and had no players selected to the all-Big 12 preseason team.

This is a game that you win if you're serious about competing at the top of the league − and at a national level.

Iowa State 28, Houston 10

Cyclones 3-1 (1-0 Big 12)

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Oct. 5 vs. Baylor, TBD

Things have gotten away from coach Dave Aranda in Waco in a big way.

The Bears went from raising the Big 12 championship trophy to winning nine games (six against conferences foes) combined in the last two years. He finds himself under significant pressure to turn things around in order to continue on to a sixth season with the Bears.

Baylor seems to have embraced NIL in a way the Bears hope will help turn their fortunes around quickly, but the quick and steep slide they've encountered over the last two years probably can't be immediately reversed.

Iowa State 31, Baylor 17

Cyclones 4-1 (2-0)

Oct. 12 at West Virginia, TBD

The Cyclones return to the scene of one of their more disappointing performances of Campbell's tenure when they lost to a poor Mountaineers team in Morgantown in 2021.

West Virginia coach Neal Brown looks to have gotten himself off the hot seat after a 9-4 season last year put a stop to a four-year streak under .500. The Mountaineers certainly aren't a powerhouse this season, but Brown has put them in a position to be competitive, especially at home.

One note here is this figures to be an especially significant game for Becht, whose father, Anthony, starred at West Virginia before an 11-year NFL career. The elder Becht is being inducted into the Mountaineer Hall of Fame this year − so here's guessing this makes for an emotional weekend for the Becht family.

West Virginia 24, Iowa State 21

Cyclones 4-2 (2-1)

Oct. 19 vs. UCF, TBD

As the only Big 12 newcomer last year to reach a bowl game, the Knights would appear to offer a stiffer test than the newbies Iowa State crushed in 2023 (beating BYU and Cincinnati by a combined 75-23).

Still, a home game against a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 game is once again one of those games that while not a must-win, throw the degree of difficulty up a notch if you don't.

Iowa State 24, UCF 13

Cyclones 5-2 (3-1)

Nov. 2 vs. Texas Tech, TBD

Dear Red Raiders,

Welcome to Ames in November. It's probably cold. And maybe snowing. Or raining or sleeting. Maybe all three? Did we mention it's Homecoming? And that, by one columnist's estimation, the Cyclones are going to be in the thick of a Big 12 title race?

Please enjoy your trip.

Iowa State 31, Texas Tech 24

Cyclones 6-2 (4-1)

Nov. 9 at Kansas (Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, Mo.), TBD

It's not like Kansas has a great home-field advantage. Even amid its resurgence under coach Lance Leipold, the Jayhawks' formidability in Lawrence isn't exactly legendary. Still, I think this game's move to the home of the Kansas City Chiefs while Memorial Stadium is under renovation is a significant advantage to Iowa State.

If this game were on campus, a decent amount of Iowa State fans would be in attendance, no doubt. It's drivable and Lawrence is fun. But it wouldn't be a takeover.

With the game in Arrowhead, though? That's reason enough to inspire, I'd imagine, a few extra thousand Iowa State fans to make the trek south and perhaps do a dress rehearsal for the Big 12 basketball tournaments held in K.C., essentially in Iowa State fans' honor at this point.

That might be enough to turn an L into a W.

Iowa State 14, Kansas 10

Cyclones 7-2 (5-1)

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Nov. 16 vs. Cincinnati, TBD

The Bearcats were probably the most overmatched Big 12 team I saw last season. I wouldn't expect that to change drastically enough to get coach Scott Satterfield a victory in Year 2 over his former colleague Campbell, who spent the 2009 season with Satterfield at Toledo.

Iowa State 21, Cincinnati 7

Cyclones 8-2 (6-1)

Nov. 23 at Utah, TBD

Here's where things get truly interesting.

After what I think can be described as a favorable schedule, the Cyclones get what should be their toughest test of the season − a road game (out west at altitude, no less) against preseason No. 13 and Big 12 favorite Utah.

If this game isn't the biggest of the season, something likely went haywire for Iowa State (or Utah, I suppose) along the way.

The Cyclones will likely have to battle the elements and potentially a top-10 (top-five?) team potentially trying to sew up its spot in the Big 12 title game and the College Football Playoff. Though the Cyclones could also be in a similar position, if my predictions hold true.

Ultimately in these situations, I tend to lean toward experience and home-field advantage.

Utah 17, Iowa State 10

Cyclones 8-3 (6-2)

Nov. 30 vs. Kansas State, TBD

You can't say experience and home field matter one week, but not the next. So that's my baseline for this Farmageddon matchup as well.

I will say that a caveat here may be pride and embarrassment.

Because Iowa State embarrassed the Wildcats last year, getting nearly 300 yards out of a true freshman, third-string running back on the strength of long runs and horrible tackling.

To do that on senior night and under a bright spotlight courtesy of the conditions, I would imagine coach Chris Kleiman has mentioned this game a time or two over the intervening months.

Iowa State 10, Kansas State 7

Cyclones 9-3 (7-2)

The stakes

The scale clearly tips toward this being not only a bowl season for Iowa State, but a march toward a November in which its final two games could have massive Big 12 and national relevance.

When you’re reaching that high, though, the path can be narrow. Each slip can prove perilous. A fall can be disastrous.

The time spent at those heights, though, are exhilarating.

In less than two weeks, the Cyclones begin that climb.

Iowa State columnist Travis Hines has covered the Cyclones for the Des Moines Register and Ames Tribune since 2012. Contact him at thines@amestrib.com or (515) 284-8000 . F ollow him on X at @TravisHines21.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Hines: Iowa State football game-by-game predictions for the 2024 season