Cooper could join Dem ticket if Biden steps aside

Gov. Roy Cooper’s name has come up among a handful of state governors as a replacement on the Democratic ticket if President Joe Biden decides not to run, according to recent reports.

Carolina Public Press interviewed analysts to understand the likelihood of Cooper being selected if the president dropped out, and what the succession process for governor would look like if Cooper were to run a national campaign.

This question is hypothetical for now.

Biden issued a statement Monday reiterating that he is not quitting the campaign. But this hasn’t stopped some leaders in the Democratic Party from calling for him to do so while weighing governors and others as replacements on the Democratic ticket in the aftermath of Biden’s performance in the first presidential debate.

Cooper was among at least a dozen governors who joined a meeting with the president last week amid criticism of his performance in the debate.

If Biden steps out of the race, many experts have said Vice President Kamala Harris would likely be the party’s pick for a presidential candidate. Political analysists in North Carolina and nationally have said Gov. Cooper stands a high chance of making the shortlist for the party’s vice presidential nominee in that scenario.

“Cooper is a purple-state Democratic governor who, as a matter of fact, in the last election was the only one who was a Democratic governor who won on the same ballot as Trump,” said Christopher Cooper, a professor of political science and public affairs at Western Carolina University. “He is a bit of a unicorn in American politics, and it makes sense that you’d want the unicorn on your side.”

Cooper served four consecutive terms as state attorney general before becoming governor in 2016. That experience overlaps with Harris, who served as California’s attorney general during the same time, according to the professor.

The governor has long publicly expressed support for Biden’s reelection and reiterated his stance at Biden’s first stop in Raleigh the morning after the debate. CPP reached out to the governor for comment Monday on whether he’d accept an offer to join the ticket if Biden drops out. The governor’s office didn’t respond in time for this story.

COOPER FOR VEEP?

North Carolina is widely considered a battleground state, but the Democrats have trailed in recent polling and haven’t won a presidential contest here since Barack Obama eked out a win in 2008. During the same period, Cooper has repeatedly won statewide contests for governor and attorney general, the only Democrat with that kind of track record in North Carolina.

Other governors’ names floated as potential replacements on the Democratic ticket include Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan, Gavin Newsom from California, Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania, Tim Walz from Minnesota and Andy Beshear from Kentucky.

Beshear recently said he would want to finish his second term as governor.

Newsom wouldn’t make much sense for Democrats to double down on California, according to Christopher Cooper. For Beshear to run, Kentucky would need a new governor and “the odds are very good that the Democratic Party would be sacrificing that,” while Roy Cooper finishes his last term, he added.

“In terms of the electoral map, Cooper makes more sense,” the professor said. “Whitmer could also make sense as a candidate.”

“But if Biden were to pull out, Roy Cooper would almost have to be on that shortlist,” he said.

Steve Greene, a political science professor at North Carolina State University, also said there’s a high possibility that Gov. Roy Cooper would be picked to run on the Democratic ticket.

“I don’t see any possibility of Cooper running for president,” Greene said,  but “one needs to be an attentive political observer to (perceive) the logic of Roy Cooper as a vice presidential choice and Kamala Harris to be the nominee, which again at this point, regardless of what Joe Biden says is a very reasonable possibility.”

Gov. Cooper’s demographic appeal would balance out the Democratic ticket if Biden steps out of the race, according to both Christopher Cooper and Greene.

“Kamala Harris is a Black woman, and because of his presentation, Cooper is a moderate, white Southerner who would send a message that this is not some radical left ticket,” Greene said. “I don’t think Democrats want to take any more chances with anything, and demographically, Harris is at the top of the ticket.”

“Everything about these candidates is not only vetted, but at least considered, and the demographics here matter,” Christopher Cooper said. “But I don’t think it’s as simple as Roy Cooper picking up Biden voters as much as it is that that package of Harris and Cooper together picks up most constituencies in the Democratic Party.”

Additionally, President Biden saying he’s staying in the race doesn’t mean he wouldn’t potentially drop out, according to Greene.

“Joe Biden will say he’s staying in the race until the moment he says he’s not staying in the race,” he said. “There are genuine concerns about his current cognitive capacity and that going forward for four years.”

Christopher Cooper found it notable that a letter Biden sent to congressional Democrats rebuffing calls for him to withdraw focuses on electability and doesn’t discuss his ability to govern.

WHAT HAPPENS IF COOPER JOINS?

If Cooper had to step down to focus on a national campaign, North Carolina would need a new governor to lead the state until the general election.

If so, the baton would then be passed down to the lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, to serve for the remainder of the term until a new governor is elected, according to the state Constitution.

Since Robinson is running to replace Cooper, this scenario would allow the Republican to run as an incumbent, usually a significant advantage. Given the partisan rivalry between Cooper and the Robinson camp, and Cooper’s support for Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein‘s candidacy for governor, Cooper isn’t likely to let that happen.

“Cooper would not have to step down as governor in November,” said Robert Joyce, a professor of public law and government at the UNC School of Government. “It seems to me he could campaign for vice president, be elected and participate in the transition all while still governor.”

Cooper’s term as governor ends Jan. 1, 2025. If he were to run and be elected to the federal office, his term as vice president would begin Jan. 20, 2025, according to Joyce. If Cooper joined the ticket and finished his term without stepping down, then the November winner in the gubernatorial race would become governor, Joyce said.

“The idea that Gov. Cooper would step down and it would go to the lieutenant governor, there’s no way he would let that happen,” Greene said. “I’m not aware of anything that would say he has to step down if he’s running for national office.”

“There’s no way Democrats would be willing to take the chance of him stepping down and then letting Mark Robinson be in charge,” he added, “I mean, the Republican legislature, I would imagine, would just take the opportunity.”

Christopher Cooper also said there’s no way the governor would let such a situation happen.

“If he runs, he would run from his perch as governor,” Cooper said, “and we’ve seen that — Bill Clinton didn’t step down as governor to run for president, Barack Obama didn’t step down from the Senate to run for president.”

Mehr Sher is the staff democracy reporter at Carolina Public Press, an independent, nonprofit news organization dedicated to nonpartisan, in-depth and investigative news. Contact her at msher@carolinapublicpress.org .

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