National Hurricane Center tracking new disturbance in Atlantic. Is quiet period over?

The National Hurricane Cente r is tracking a new disturbance in the central Atlantic, according to the latest advisory.

The Pacific continues to be busy — with the National Hurricane Center currently tracking two tropical storms and one hurricane.

In the Atlantic, August has been unusually quiet , but meteorologists have warned residents to not let their guard down when it comes to storms in the Atlantic basin.

➤ Track all active storms

➤ Weather alerts via text : Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location

AccuWeather forecasters are predicting "a major shift in the weather pattern will soon blow the doors wide open for a frenzy of tropical activity to unfold ."

"I think things could get very active potentially very quickly here as soon as that dry air goes away," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

"We could see a parade of storms. This dramatic increase in activity will start at the end of August and persist throughout September," AccuWeather said. Labor Day 2024 is on Sept. 2.

Between six and 10 tropical systems are predicted for September, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. That's similar to the pace of the record-breaking 2020 hurricane season which had 10 September storms. The same year saw a record 30 named storms in the season.

Is Florida at risk for tropical cyclones in September? Who should be concerned?

Florida and the Carolinas are at an elevated risk of a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane, AccuWeather said. But they aren't the only states that should monitor the tropics closely.

"I'm still very concerned about the Texas coast," DaSilva said.

In its August forecast update, Colorado State University predicted the probabilities of at least one major hurricane making landfall in Florida on the U.S. as:

• Entire continental U.S. coastline: 56%
• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key): 30%
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key) westward to Brownsville: 38%

In its two-week forecast for Aug. 20 through Sept. 2, Colorado State University is predicting normal hurricane activity, but added "environmental conditions look to get more conducive for tropical cyclone activity toward the end of August."

"There is a potential for tropical cyclone formation in the eastern/central Atlantic as well as the Caribbean in 8-14 days. Some of these ensemble members are aggressive with intensification, which makes sense given the low shear that is forecast in week two across the basin," said CSU.

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of  2 p.m. Aug. 27:

What is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?

The National Hurricane Center was monitoring a tropical disturbance and two tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, according to the 8 a.m. advisory. The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical disturbance: An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the tropical Atlantic in a few days.

Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system this weekend into early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.

First wave: A tropical wave is located is the eastern Atlantic, northwest of Cabo Verde. It's moving west at 6 to 11 mph. Exact location is near 27W from 20N southward.

Second wave: Another tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic east of the British Virgin Islands. It's moving west at 11 to 17 mph. Exact location is near 52W from 20N southward.

What does the colored area on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.

Need hurricane supplies? Save now during Florida tax holiday

The second and final two-week period to save on hurricane supplies started Aug. 24 and runs through Sept. 6.

With the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season not only expected to busy — some predict more than double the average of 14 named storms — but also to last well into November , now it the time to purchase supplies. Once a storm approaches, a run on stores begins and shelves are stripped bare of essentials.

What hurricane supplies are tax free in Florida?

• A portable generator used to provide light or communications or preserve food in the event of a power outage with a sales price of $3,000 or less.
• A tarpaulin or other flexible waterproof sheeting with a sales price of $100 or less.
• An item normally sold as, or generally advertised as, a ground anchor system or tie-down kitwith a sales price of $100 or less.
• A smoke detector or smoke alarm with a sales price of $70 or less.
• A fire extinguisher with a sales price of $70 or less.
• A carbon monoxide detector with a sales price of $70 or less.
• A nonelectric food storage cooler with a sales price of $60 or less.
• A portable power bank with a sales price of $60 or less.
• A gas or diesel fuel tank with a sales price of $50 or less.
• A portable self-powered radio, two-way radio, or weather-band radio with a sales price of$50 or less.
• A package of AA-cell, AAA-cell, C-cell, D-cell, 6-volt, or 9-volt batteries, excluding automobileand boat batteries, with a sales price of $50 or less.
• A portable self-powered light source (powered by battery, solar, hand-crank, or gas) with asales price of $40 or less.
• Flashlights
• Reusable ice (ice packs) with a sales price of $20 or less.
• Lanterns
• Candles

➤ Do you need a generator? With active hurricane season ahead, do you need a generator in Florida? Here's how to decide

➤ How to prepare for hurricane season: On a budget? Here are 5 cheap ways to prepare your home for Florida's hurricane season

Expect to see new 'cone of concern' with next named storm, if it nears Florida, US

The National Hurricane Center launched its new "cone of concern " for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14.

Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn't see many differences between the original and new cone. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.

Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center's website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for the storm , then click on "New Experimental Cone," which will be highlighted in red.

Differences you'll see:

• Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
• White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.

Who is likely to be impacted?

It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the disturbance or the tropical waves out there.

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's next?

We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here .

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: National Hurricane Center tracking new disturbance in Atlantic. Is quiet period over?