Tropical Storm Debby is "loitering" off the coast of South Carolina this morning, bringing a major flood threat for portions of the Carolinas, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea has a low chance for development as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. The early forecast shows the disturbance following a similar path similar to Hurricane Beryl's approach toward Texas.
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Six people in Florida have died in accidents related to Debby. Three of them were in traffic accidents and two from fallen trees, according to AccuWeather . The sixth death was a man in Gulfport who was on his anchored sailboat when the storm hit, according to WSTP .
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. Aug. 7:
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph and some strengthening is possible today or tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina.
An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches.
A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight.
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Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Colorado State University begins 2-week tropical forecasts
CSU forecasters predict there is an 85% chance for hurricane activity from Aug. 6 through Aug. 19.
"The primary threat formation area for major hurricanes in early- to mid-August is in the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles."
The next two-week forecast will be released Aug. 20 for Aug. 20-Sept. 2.
On Aug. 6, CSU updated its seasonal forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, reducing the predicted number of named storms from 25 to 23 but maintaining its forecast for 12 hurricane and six major hurricanes.
What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Tropical wave: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Caribbean sea are associated with a tropical wave.
The northern portion of this tropical wave could reach the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, however, any development of this system should be slow to occur.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
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The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical wave in the Caribbean.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's the forecast for Lakeland/Polk County
We're back to our typical summer pattern: hot and muggy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible the next few days. From the National Weather Service:
Wednesday : Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 11am and 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 104. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Local rainfall from Debby: How much rain did Hurricane Debby dump on Polk? See what NWS rain gauges say
Wednesday night : Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Thursday : Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 105. West southwest wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night : Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 77. South southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday : Isolated showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Sunny, with a high near 93. West southwest wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night : Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 76. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
What's next?
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Contributor: C. A. Bridges, USA Today Network-Florida
This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Tracking Debby and a new tropical wave. What's in store for Polk County the next few days?
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